AIRASIA, the region's biggest budget carrier, is making a risky bet.

As soaring fuel prices have forced other airlines to cut back, shed jobs and ground planes, AirAsia is doing the opposite: increasing flights, adding routes and boosting capital investment.

Last month, it even gave away a million free seats (although passengers still had to pay taxes and fuel surcharges). The seven-year-old company is aiming to fill the vacuum as other airlines reduce capacity, betting that more travelers will opt for budget flights amid a global economic downturn. Analysts say if it survives the industry slump, AirAsia could come out a winner with increased customer loyalty and a strong route network to catch the growth wave when good times return.

"They are reasonably well positioned for the long run but there's always a trade-off. It's a long-term decision, which will cause some short-term pain," said Damien Horth, Asia transport analyst at UBS AG in Hong Kong.

Of course, the strategy could also backfire badly.

Already there are signs of trouble. Last month, AirAsia reported a 95-percent plunge in its net profit for April-June quarter to 9.42 million ringgit (US$2.9 million).

But the company chalked that up mostly to a 77-million-ringgit foreign exchange loss from a weakened Malaysian ringgit, not weakness in its underlying business.

Average load factor - the percentage of seats taken up in an airplane - dipped to a still relatively strong 76 percent, from 80 percent last year.

Chief Executive Tony Fernandes remains undaunted.

"We are focused and happy with our strategy," he said. "We won't sacrifice long-term (growth) for short-term profits."

There are doubts, however, on whether AirAsia can fund its expansion. It has a cash reserve of about 1 billion ringgit but outstanding debts stand at 5.4 billion ringgit, giving it a net debt position of 4.4 billion ringgit.