THE chaos greeting passengers at the opening of the 4.3-billion-pound (US$8.4 billion) Terminal 5 at London's Heathrow Airport in March may produce a windfall for shareholders of owner Grupo Ferrovial SA, said Steven Fernandez, an analyst for Exane BNP Paribas in Paris.
A baggage-system breakdown that caused more than 600 flight delays may give British regulators ammunition to force the sale of at least one of the seven UK airports run by the Madrid-based builder's BAA Ltd unit, including three serving London.
Gatwick could fetch as much 3.4 billion pounds, estimated Fernandez, whose calls on the shares returned 5.2 percent over the past 12 months and placed him first in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts covering the company.
A sale may help Spain's second-biggest construction company reduce debt and focus investment on fewer airports after buying BAA for 10.1 billion pounds in 2006. Tightening credit markets have forced Ferrovial to twice delay an 8-billion-pound refinancing.
Depending on the price Gatwick may bring, "it's a positive," Fernandez, who rates the shares "outperform," said. Cutting Ferrovial's debt "could provide some reassurance," he said.
Heathrow, Europe's busiest airport, was used by 68 million passengers last year.
While the UK's Competition Commission may order Ferrovial to sell Heathrow, which contributed 71 percent of BAA's operating profit in the first quarter, or 64 million pounds, "the assumption out there is that it will more likely be Gatwick," said Rory Taylor, a spokesman for the regulator.
"Ferrovial would probably fight tooth and nail to keep Heathrow," he said.
"Common ownership is in passengers' interests," BAA spokesman Stuart Butchers said when asked about the possibility of airport sales.
Ferrovial has fallen 30 percent since the BAA purchase closed on August 15, 2006, because of concern about the company's debt and as Spain's construction market slowed.
The benchmark IBEX 35 Index gained 4.9 percent in the period. Fernandez raised his target price to 66 euros (US$101.71) a share from 55 euros in April, citing a possible sale of Gatwick, 45 kilometers south of the British capital, along with a Scottish airfield. The stock closed at 43.12 euros yesterday in Madrid.