发布时间：2008.9

摘要

BMI regularly reports on 17 Emerging Europe markets: Belarus, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine. All are experiencing rising demand for broadband telecoms services, but have little in the way of advanced wireline infrastructure capable of delivering such services, with fixed-line penetration standing at 36.1% and broadband penetration standing at 8.5% as of June 2008. By comparison, cheap mobile services have proven to be a runaway success in the region; penetration reached 101.4% as of June 2008.

The aim of this report is to outline the issues facing existing and new operators wishing to roll out high-speed wireless broadband services into previously-untapped geographical and socio-economic markets throughout the Emerging Europe region, an area that is notoriously underserved by traditional fixed-line telephony and wired broadband access technologies, such as xDSL. We identify CDMA450 as the technology of choice for a growing number of operators and service providers to make affordable mobile broadband services available in their chosen markets. The report also examines the impact this trend will have on the region’s markets, concluding with a case study on SkyLink, one of the earliest adopters of CDMA450 technology in Emerging Europe.

What Is Mobile Broadband?

Mobile broadband allows mobile phone users to access the internet via their laptops or enhanced handsets almost anywhere. As the name suggests, mobile broadband is broadband connectivity available on the go. Mobile broadband is also known as mobile internet and can be accessed via a number of devices. These include mobile phones, mobile dongles and data cards.

Mobile dongles are essentially portable modems and while the term mobile broadband dongle is popular, these devices are also called: mobile USB sticks and USB modems. In most cases mobile dongles plug into the USB port of your laptop or PC and offer broadband speed internet access at the click of a button wherever there is mobile phone coverage. As with mobile phones, the strength of the signal determines the quality of the connection.

Mobile broadband became a mass-market phenomenon in the wake of the licensing of third-generation (3G) universal mobile telecommunications service (UMTS) networks from the late-1990s. UMTS networks offer very high uplink and downlink access rates but are also very expensive to build and operate. In addition, UMTS’ average utilisation of MHz per potential user is very high. And the high bandwidth involved necessitates a greater number of base stations to be installed per square kilometre.

While 3G UMTS services have been licensed and launched in many Emerging European markets, takeup is low and thus it is proving very difficult to roll out mobile broadband services in a financially-viable manner. Alternative technologies such as WiMAX and WiFi are available, but it is the mass-market appeal of the mobile phone that remains the most attractive when considering offering mobile broadband on a commercial basis. Increasingly, CDMA450 is being used to offer services.

What Is CDMA450?

CDMA450 is a digital wireless system based on CDMA technology which has been adapted to work in the 410- 450MHz band vacated by many of the world’s now-defunct analogue cellular network operators. It has been recognised by standards bodies such as the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) as one of the family of third-generation (3G) mobile telecoms technologies.

Currently, CDMA2000 1x and CDMA2000 1xEV-DO are commercially available for the 450MHz band, while CDMA2000 1xEV-DV is being developed.

Advantages of using CDMA450 derive from the spectral efficiency and high-speed data capabilities of CDMA2000 and the expanded coverage afforded by the lower frequency band. In addition: CDMA450 provides a larger cell size compared to cell sizes in other bands, which translates to fewer cell sites and significantly lower capex and operating expenses to service vast coverage areas; CDMA450 offers 3G services (high-quality voice and high-speed data access); CDMA2000 1x supports high-speed data up to 153kbps and CDMA2000 1xEV-DO offers broadband access of up to 2.4Mbps; CDMA450 requires only a small portion of spectrum (1.25MHz), a significant consideration for those surviving NMT450 operators or their successors holding 4-5MHz of spectrum in the 450MHz band.

Why Are Operators Using CDMA-Based Solutions To Deliver Mobile Broadband?

In the Emerging Europe markets, as in other regions such as Africa, the Middle East and Asia, demand for basic and affordable telecoms services remains very high, partly because incumbent fixed-line telecoms networks operated by former state-owned utilities are either unsuitable for conversion to traditional fixed broadband technologies such as xDSL and Ethernet or because existing incumbent and alternative operators often are forced to ignore those parts of their licensed service areas or populations on low levels of income simply because it is not profitable to serve them with their comparatively high-cost fixed-line and wireless networks. Consequently, it is difficult to extend highspeed broadband and data services to large chunks of the potential customer base.

However, with CDMA450 technologies now being recognised for their potential in delivering cost-effective broadband services to these neglected areas of the market, interest in buying up the remaining NMT450 licensees or the relevant spare frequencies where these have been returned to the state is running at a high and potential investors are prepare to bid highly for what is now seen as a premium asset.

Certainly, there is also a lot of interest being expressed in alternative platforms, such as WiFi and WiMAX, which operate at higher frequencies and which allow for much faster data transmission rates and those operators that can afford to buy WiMAX-friendly spectrum at the ballooning rates being seen across the world are still assured of achieving a comfortable return on their investment. However, Wi-Fi is limited in terms of geographic reach and WiMAX (despite being available in very attractive fixed, nomadic and fully-mobile forms) is hampered by the high cost of end-user equipment versus the comparative cheapness of xDSL and GSM and UMTS-based mobile broadband services.

CDMA450 presents a much smaller cost-per-MHz investment and, potentially greater returns on that investment. Consequently, a growing number of operators, particularly those in the Central and Eastern Europe region as well as Eurasia, are rapidly rolling out CDMA450-based mobile broadband networks in a bid to beat fixed-line and mobile operators to this lucrative market: ARPUs may turn out to be low, but operating margins will almost certainly be very high.

Regulators Catch On Quickly

The Eastern European region is an ideal environment for CDMA450-based mobile broadband services, due to the low penetration of fixed-line infrastructure and far from universal reach of cellular networks. Also, as many more NMT-450 operators were licensed in this region, the spectrum is already vacant and partitioned for use, allowing those surviving operators to resurrect themselves for the digital era rapidly and at small expense.

Where unused 450MHz spectrum remains in state hands, governments are moving quickly to auction the frequencies while demand is high. This has proven to be a lucrative business as operators fight over these scarce resources by bidding relatively highly. Investors do not bid too highly, though, as the 3G licensing debacle of the late-1990s/early-2000s still looms large in the memories of most seasoned telecoms players.

Also, there is a better understanding these days of how much of a return can be had per MHz.

目录及图表

Mobile Broadband Opportunities In Emerging Europe
Business Environment Ratings
Table: Eastern Europebusiness Environment Rankings
Forecasts: Mobile 
Belarus
Chart: Steady Growth Expected 
Table: Belarus Telecoms Sector — Mobile — Historical Data & Forecasts
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Chart: M:tel Contributes To Mobile Growth
Table: Bosnian Telecoms Sector — Mobiles — Historical Data & Forecasts
Bulgaria
Chart: Market To Slow Post 2007
Table: Bulgarian Telecoms Sector — Mobile Historical Data & Forecasts
Croatia
Chart: Incremental Growth Predicted
Table: Croatia Telecoms Sector — Mobile — Historical Data & Forecasts
Czech Republic
Chart: Mobile Growth At A Standstill
Table: Czech Republic Telecoms Sector — Mobile — Historical Data & Forecasts
Hungary
Table: Hungarian Telecoms Sector Mobile Historical Data & Forecasts
Chart: Mobile Demand To Slow
Lithuania
Chart: Tough Times Ahead
Table: Lithuania Telecoms Sector Mobile Historical Data & Forecasts
Moldova
Chart: Rapid Growth Despite Maturity
Table: Moldova Telecoms Sector — Mobile — Historical Data & Forecasts
Poland
Chart: Operators Fight For Market Share
Table: Poland Telecoms Sector — Mobile — Historical Data & Forecasts
Romania
Chart: Inactive Subscribers Inflate Figures
Table: Romania Telecoms Sector–mobile–historical Data & Forecasts
Russia
Chart: Xxxxxxxxxx
Table: Russia Telecoms Sector — Mobile — Historical Data & Forecasts
Serbia
Chart: Political Risk To Impact Market
Slovakia
Chart: Prepaid Dominant Market
Table: Slovakian Telecoms Sector — Mobiles — Historical Data & Forecasts
Ukraine
Chart: 3g Take Up Commences
Table: Ukraine Mobile Historical Data & Forecasts
Forecasts: Broadband
Belarus
Chart: Alternative Technologies To Make An Entrance
Table: Belarus Telecoms Sector — Internet — Historical Data & Forecasts
Bosnia
Chart: Adsl Leads Broadband
Table: Bosnia Telecoms Sector — Internet — Historical Data & Forecasts
Bulgaria
Chart: Average Growth Of 18% Until 2012
Table: Bulgarian — Internet Historical Data & Forecasts
Croatia
Chart: Greater Competition Boosts Market
Table: Croatia Internet — Historical Data & Forecasts
Czech Republic
Table: Czech Republican Internet — Historical Data & Forecasts
Chart: Llv Opens Up Market
Hungary
Chart: Broadband To Account For Larger % Of Market
Table: Hungary Internet — Historical Data & Forecasts
Lithuania
Chart: New Services To Support Growth
Table: Lithuania Telecoms Sector Internet Historical Data & Forecasts
Moldova
Chart: Further Liberalisation Required
Table: Moldova Internet — Historical Data & Forecasts
Poland
Chart: Intense Competition On The Up
Table: Poland Internet — Historical Data & Forecasts
Romania
Chart: Little Wimax Impact In Near Term
Table: Romania Internet–historical Data & Forecasts
Russia
Chart: Alternatives Introduce Wimax And Fttb
Table: Russia Internet — Historical Data & Forecasts
Serbia
Table: Serbia Internet Historical Data & Forecasts
Chart: Cable Services Rival Adsl
Slovakia
Table: Slovakian Telecoms Sector — Internet — Historical Data & Forecasts
Chart: Double Digit Growth Expected
Ukraine
Chart: Ukrtelecom Modernises Network
Table: Ukraine Internet — Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis: Mobile 
Belarus
Chart: Mts Out In Front
Table: Belarus Mobile Market Net Additions, Q407 Vs. Q307 And 2007
Table: Mts Belarus
Table: Belarus Velcom
Table: Belarus Best
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Chart: Gap Widens
Table — Bosnia Mobile Market, Q407
Table: Bosnia Bh Mobile
Table: Bosnia Mobilne Srpske
Table: Bosnia Ht Mobilne Komunikacije
Bulgaria
Chart: Global Egdes Ahead
Table: Bulgarian Mobile Market, September 2007
Table: Bulgarian Mobile Net Additions, 9m07 
Table: Bulgarian Vivatel
Table: Bulgarian Mobiltel
Table: Bulgarian Globul
Croatia
Table — Croatian Mobile Market, Q108
Chart: Prepaid Dominates The Market
Table: Croatia Mobile Market Net Additions, Q108 Vs. Q107 & 2007
Chart: September Sees Revival In Arpu
Table: Croatia T-mobile
Table: Croatia Tele2
Table: Croatia Vipnet
Czech Republic
Table: Czech Mobile Market, 2007
Chart: Telefonica Looks To Close The Gap
Table: Czech Mobile Market Net Additions, 2007
Table: Czech Mobile Market Prepaid And Postpaid Subscribers, Q306-q407
Chart: Closing The Distance
Chart: Telefonica O2/t-mobile/vodafone 
Table: Czech Republic T-mobile
Table: Czech Republic Vodafone
Table: Czech Republic Telefonica O2
Hungary
Table: Hungary Mobile Market, Q307
Chart: Hungary Prepaid Vs. Post-paid 
Table: Hungary Wireless Arpu, Q405-q307 (huf)
Table: Hungary T-mobile
Table: Hungary Pannon Gsm
Table: Hungary Vodafone
Lithuania
Chart: Lithuania - Prepaid Vs. Post-paid 
Table — Lithuanian Mobile Market, Q406 — Q207
Table: Lithuanian Mobile Market Net Additions, Q306 — Q107
Chart: Omnitel/bite Retain Consistency
Chart: Blended Arpu Comparison (ltl)
Moldova
Chart: Moldova: Prepaid Vs. Postpaid Subscriber Growth
Table: Moldovan Mobile Market Net Additions, Q407 Vs Q307 & 2007
Table: Moldova Orange
Table: Moldova Moldcell
Poland
Chart: Poland Mobile Market - Subscriber Growth 
Table: Poland Wireless Market December 2007
Chart: Poland - A Study Of Ptc’s Decline
Table: Poland Wireless Net Additions Market, 2007
Table: Poland Polkomtel
Table: Poland Ptc (t-mobile)
Table: Poland Orange
Romania
Table–romanian Mobile Market, March 2008
Chart: Romania Mobile Market 
Chart: Comparative Study Of Mobile Operator Market Shares 
Table: Romania Vodafone
Table: Romania Orange
Table: Romania Cosmote 
Russia
Table: Russian Mobile Market, Q108
Table: Russian Mobile Net Additions Q108
Chart: Russia Broadband Market Share
Chart: Comparative Study Of Mts/vimpelcom
Table: Russia 3g Licence Holders — Investment Plans
Table: Russia Megafon
Table: Russia Mts
Table: Russia Tele2
Table: Russia Vimpelcom
Serbia
Table: Serbia Mobile Market, Q207
Chart: Serbia - A Comparative Study Of Mobile Operator Market Shares 
Table: Serbia Mobile Market Prepaid And Postpaid Subscribers, Q206 — Q207
Chart: Serbia Prepaid Vs. Post-paid Subscriber Growth 
Slovakia
Chart: Slovakia - A Comparative Study Of Mobile Operator Market Shares 
Table — Slovakia Mobile Market Q207
Chart: Slovakia - Prepaid Vs. Post-paid Subscriber Growth 
Table: Slovakia Mobile Market Net Additions, Q207 Vs. Q107 & 2006
Chart: Slovakia 3g Subscriber Growth (‘000)
Ukraine
Table: Ukrainian Mobile Market, Q108
Table: Ukraine Mobile Net Additions Q108
Chart: Ukraine - Mts Blended Arpu (us$) Decline 
Chart: Ukraine - Kyivstar & Mts Subscriber Growth 
Table: Ukraine Kyivstar
Table: Ukraine Vimpelcom
Table: Ukraine Astelit
Table: Ukraine Mts
Market Data Analysis: Broadband 
Belarus
Bosnia
Table: Bosnian Local Market 2006
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Lithuania
Table — Lithuanian Broadband Market, Q107,
Moldova
Table: Moldova: Broadband Subscriptions By Type, 2005-2006
Chart: Moldova: Broadband Market Shares By Operator
Poland
Table: Polish Broadband Market, December 2007
Romania
Russia
Table: Russia - Svyazinvest Regional Companies,broadband Subscribers, Q108 (000’)
Chart: Russia Broadband Market Share
Table: Russia Golden Telecom Broadband Indicators
Serbia
Slovakia
Table : Slovakia Broadband Market 2006
Chart: Slovakia Broadband Subscriber Growth By Access Technology
Ukraine
Glossary Of Terms