发布时间：2008

摘要

In theory Turkey should be one of the most exciting and prospective markets for insurance worldwide, or at least outside the Asia-Pacific region. Over the five years to 2012, non-life premiums, for instance, should grow by over US$6bn. The demographics are favourable. The macroeconomic environment appears quite promising – or certainly in the context of huge volatility in the past. The regulatory framework and the general environment for insurance companies appear to be improving.

Most encouragingly, Turkey is clearly a country in which foreign groups can do business. The growing number of foreign groups who are active in the insurance sector (of which Coface is the latest arrival)indicates that the regulatory environment is, at worst, not a barrier. Many of the players in the fragmented Turkish insurance sector are local business conglomerates who, although large in the context of Turkey, are no more than medium-sized organisations by any other standards. Often these companies are keen to partner major international insurers in order to gain access to capital or expertise that would otherwise be unavailable.

In practice there are two major reasons for caution. One relates to the aforementioned fragmentation of the industry. It is just not possible that the majority of the 50 or so insurance companies operating in Turkey can be achieving meaningful economies of scale. This will still be true in 2012 even if our forecasts (of double-digit annual growth for both segments) turn out to be pessimistic. The bottom line is that within the forecast period there may well be a major rationalisation in both segments. One catalyst for this could be a decline in profitability, whether it results from a blow-out in costs or falling revenue.

Another catalyst could be a major deterioration in the economic environment. Interest rates, inflation and the current account deficit all appear to be moving in the right direction. However, Turkey remains vulnerable to a surge in oil prices or to a sharp rise in global risk aversion. The potential returns from the insurance sector are limited by the weakness of the financial infrastructure and, if past history is any guide, the potential for violent swings in Turkey's economic fortunes. BMI's overall risk rating for Turkey is, at 54.2, fairly low – and particularly so by the standards of Central and Eastern Europe.