发布时间：2008

摘要

This report differs from its predecessors in that it includes BMI's Insurance Business Environment Rating (IBER). The rating brings together a number of pieces of relevant quantitative data, together with BMI's Country Risk Rating (CRR). It is now much easier to consider the business environment for the insurance sector in any one country relative to the business environment for other industries in that country that are surveyed by BMI, and the business environment for the insurance sector in other countries.

Iran's IBER is 35.2. Relative to other countries in the Middle East and Africa survey region, it is a rather unattractive insurance market for foreign insurers. Within the region, Iran stands out being effectively closed to foreign insurers due to imposed sanctions. Forecasts suggest that the economy shows signs of slowing in the next year or two. Government policies, although not always beneficial for the health of the economy, are, at least, likely to remain constant over the long term. However, the IBER is held back by the underdevelopment of the life segment and the financial infrastructure. It is also held back by the legal framework and bureaucracy in Iran.

Over the forecast period, we anticipate that non-life premiums will grow by 22% annually in local currency terms and by 20% in US dollar terms. Life premiums are expected to increase by 12% annually in local currency terms and by 10% in US dollar terms. The key drivers of growth in the non-life segment in 2007-2012 are the anticipated rise in nominal GDP from around US$225bn to US$604bn and a near doubling of life density to US$102 per capita by 2012. Overall however, non-life penetration is expected to remain roughly static over the forecast period at approximately 1.3%. The key driver of growth in the life segment is the envisaged rise in life density from a miniscule US$3 per capita in 2007 to US$5 per capita in 2012. Additionally, Iran's growing population will contribute to growth in the life sector. The competitive landscape in Iran is a closed one in which foreign operators are effectively locked out, due to sanctions. At present only one cross border firm is operative, Fortis, servicing the non-life segment.

The strengths of Iran's insurance sector are non-life segment that is starting from a reasonable size base, has good growth prospects and a level of penetration that leaves room for expansion. Meanwhile, the miniscule life sector suggests that opportunity exists for an operator with an attractive life insurance offering.

Key weaknesses making Iran's insurance sector less appealing are political tensions between Iran and the US, elements of the government's economic policy, and factional infighting apparent within the administration.

目录及图表

Chapter 1 - The Sector At A Glance

Table: Overview Money Amounts In Millions Of Currency Specified

Key Features Of This Report & Likely Future Changes

Chapter 2 - Latest News

Recent Developments

Chapter 3 - Evolution Since The Mid-1990s

Table: Evolution Of The Insurance Sector (In Millions Of Currency Specified)

Evolution

Chapter 4 - Projections And Forecasts

Table: BMI Projections (In Millions Of Currency Specified)

Projections And Drivers Of Growth

Chapter 5 - Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Economic Activity

Chapter 6 - Country Update

Political Risk - Core Scenario

Economic Risk Core Scenario

Business Environment Core Scenario

Chapter 7 - Analysis of Competitive Conditions

Table: Non-Life Segment Rankings Of Markets

Table: Presence Of Cross-Border Insurers Non-Life

Table: Selected Local Non-Life Insurers

Country Overview Iran - Life Segment

Table: Life Segment Rankings Of Markets

Table: Presence Of Cross-Border Insurers Life

Table: Selected Local Life Insurers

Whos Who In The Middle East And Africa Region?

Chapter 8 - Regional Context

Table: Regional Context - Premiums

Table: Regional Context Total Premiums

Chapter 9 - Methodology And Objectives

Introduction

Background

Forecasts

Chapter 10 - Appendix

Table: Latest Estimates/Actual Figures For 2005

Table: Latest Estimates For 2010

Table: Latest Estimates For 2005-2010