发布时间：2008.9

摘要

BuddeComm’s 2008 New Zealand - Telecoms - Overview and Analysis publication provides a detailed overview, including statistics, forecasts and analysis, of the regulatory, infrastructure, fixed network voice and VoIP sectors of the New Zealand telecommunications market, as well as an overview of the key market players.

The telecoms industry in New Zealand has undergone significant changes over the last year. While the results of these changes will not have a significant impact on the market in the short term, they will profoundly alter the telecoms market over the next five years. Until late 2007, it was envisaged that the most important and positive development was the change in attitude of the incumbent from one that has historically provided resistance to regulatory change, to one that is prepared to work together with the industry in a more mutually beneficial way. Unfortunately the industry got a rude awakening in late 2007 when Telecom launched its cabinetisation program, without a clear transition plan for the rest of the industry.

The total telecoms market in New Zealand grew by 1.1% in the 12 months to June 2007 to $7.54 billion. BuddeComm predicts that the total New Zealand telco market will grow around 0.9% in 2007/08 and 2.8% in 2008/09. Telecom maintains a stranglehold on the local access market in fixed-line voice and broadband.

The bundling of voice, data and video services (triple play) and mobile services (quadruple play) are likely to develop on a more large scale fashion in New Zealand in 2008 and 2009. We expect the local access voice market to fall further over the next few years, as phone call prices and volumes continue to drop and more people give up their traditional home phone line and move to alternative access networks such as mobile and VoIP as well as products based on data and IP-based solutions.

Over time, the new environment will open up lots of new opportunities for everybody involved. These include the value-added infrastructure opportunities such as data centres, content hosting, network management, etc. But equally a range of innovative customer services can be built on the new wholesale products and perhaps more importantly open networks will create a great new environment for digital media, e-health, tele-education and smart grid applications in which there will now be much wider scope for a variety of organisations to participate.

In the meantime however, the outlook for competition is bleak. There still are no attractive wholesale products and prices here are set to increase. Vodafone/ihug is behaving as yet another monopolist and TelstraClear has retracted to the Trans Tasman and corporate market, showing very little industry leadership.

目录及图表

1.	MARKET OVERVIEW
1.1	Key highlights
1.1.1	Market overview and analysis
1.1.2	Key players in the market
1.2	Telecommunications infrastructure
1.2.1	Market overview
1.2.2	Telecom’s Next Generation Network (NGN)
1.3	Regulatory developments
1.3.1	Operational separation of Telecom
1.3.2	Local Loop Unbundling
1.3.3	Telecom’s Transition plan
1.3.4	Mobile
1.4	Fixed network voice
1.5	Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP)
2.	MARKET AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
2.1	The dawn of a new era
2.2	Progress at the expense of competition – November 2007
2.2.1	Shortsighted industry
2.2.2	Telecom fibre plans are no surprise
2.2.3	No progress in wholesale
2.2.4	Broadband prices double that of other countries
2.2.5	New endless regulatory debates?
2.3	The industry will have to wait a bit longer
2.4	Infrastructure analysis
2.4.1	National infrastructure plan is essential
2.4.2	e-health and environmental issues
2.4.3	Savings can pay for infrastructure
2.4.4	Technology issues
2.4.5	Fibre networks and NGNs
2.5	Telecom New Zealand – analysis
2.5.1	A company in transition
2.5.2	New opportunities in value-added infrastructure services
2.5.3	Sole national infrastructure company
2.6	TelstraClear – analysis
2.6.1	Crunch year for the challenger
2.6.2	2007 saw a dangerous slide in performance
2.6.3	New Zealand does need a strong competitor
2.6.4	More pain before gain
2.6.5	Opportunities in IT-based services
3.	KEY STATISTICS
4.	MAJOR PLAYERS
4.1	Telecom Corporation of New Zealand
4.2	Telstraclear Ltd
4.3	Vodafone New Zealand Ltd
4.4	ihug
4.4.1	Company ownership, subsidiaries
4.4.2	Company strategy
4.4.3	Subscribers statistics and financial results – 2006
4.4.4	The ihug network
4.5	Kordia
4.5.1	Overview
4.5.2	The Kordia network
4.5.3	Wireless broadband
4.5.4	Digital Audio Broadcasting (DAB)
4.5.5	Video-over-IP broadcasting
4.5.6	Overseas developments
4.5.7	Financial results – 2007
4.5.8	Strategic overview – late 2007
4.5.9	Company analysis – Kordia, is the sleeping giant waking up?
4.6	CallPlus
4.6.1	Overview
4.6.2	Access strategy
4.6.3	Company background
4.7	Compass Communications
4.7.1	Overview
4.8	M2 Telecommunications
4.9	Southern Cross Cable Network
4.9.1	Network overview
4.10	WorldxChange Communications
4.10.1	Overview
4.10.2	Network
5.	REVENUE AND FORECASTS
5.1	Revenue statistics by major providers
5.1.1	Overall market
5.1.2	Telecom and TelstraClear
5.2	Revenue statistics by market segment
5.2.1	Overall market
5.2.2	Mobile
5.2.3	Data, ISP and broadband
5.2.4	Local access and calling
5.3	Revenue forecasts 2005 - 2015
5.3.1	Introduction
5.3.2	By markets
5.3.3	By-products
5.3.4	By industry
5.3.5	Where to go from here?
6.	FIXED NETWORK VOICE MARKET
6.1	Local access and fixed voice market overview
6.1.1	Telecom continues to dominate a declining local access market
6.1.2	Smaller players gaining only limited traction
6.1.3	Market trends moving into 2008 and 2009
6.2	Local access and calling revenues
6.2.1	Market revenues
6.3	Local access and calling statistics
6.3.1	Current – Telecom only
6.4	Market surveys
6.4.1	Fixed-line voice pricing survey
7.	VOIP MARKET
7.1	Where is the VoIP market heading?
7.1.1	Global trends
7.1.2	Residential VoIP adoption will be slow and protracted
7.2	Local VoIP market developments
7.2.1	Residential sector
7.2.2	Business sector
7.3	Corporate IP Telephony market surveys – 2006
7.3.1	IP telephony adoption in the business sector
7.3.2	PBX market
7.4	Advantages of implementing VoIP systems
7.5	Emerging VoIP applications
7.5.1	Click to call
7.5.2	VoIP peering
7.5.3	VoIP mobiles
7.6	Global VoIP surveys
7.6.1	Australian businesses not enthusiastically embracing VoIP – June 2007
7.6.2	VoIP will not be effective without upgraded broadband
7.6.3	VoIP quality deteriorating, but who cares? We do!
8.	INFRASTRUCTURE
8.1	Telecommunications infrastructure in New Zealand
8.1.1	Market overview
8.1.2	Market analysis
8.2	Network access technologies
8.2.1	Copper cables
8.2.2	Fibre networks
8.2.3	New Zealand institute argues for national fibre network rollout
8.2.4	Local metropolitan fibre network initiatives
8.2.5	Wireless
8.3	Local council initiatives
8.3.1	Auckland City Council – broadband strategy
8.3.2	Proposed fibre rollout in Wellington
8.4	Internet peering
8.4.1	What is Internet peering?
8.4.2	Disadvantages in not peering
8.4.3	Internet Peering Exchanges in New Zealand
8.4.4	Telecom NZ announces plans to take local peering to market
8.4.5	Dark fibre
8.5	Government initiatives
8.5.1	Government targets fast fibre rollouts for 15 towns
8.5.2	Government’s high-speed advance network
8.6	Telecom’s network
8.6.1	National network
8.6.2	Fibre network
8.6.3	Data network
8.6.4	Next Generation Network (NGN)
8.6.5	Rural and intra-island networks
8.6.6	International connections
8.6.7	AAPT’s Australian network
8.7	Telstraclear’s network
8.7.1	Network overview
8.7.2	Fibre network update – early 2007
8.7.3	NGN platform solution rollout
8.8	Broadband over Powerlines (BPL)
8.8.1	Transpower to deploy nationwide wide IP network – May 2007
9.	REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
9.1	Local Loop Unbundling (LLU) and Unbundled Bitstream Service (UBS) overview
9.1.1	LLU versus UBS
9.1.2	Unbundled Bitstream Access (UBA)
9.1.3	Wholesale bitstream services
9.2	LLU and UBS market developments
9.2.1	Government reforms
9.2.2	Other market developments – 2006
9.3	Interconnection
9.3.1	Market developments – 2006
9.4	Telecommunications Service Obligations (Kiwi Share)
9.4.1	Background
9.4.2	Market developments – 2007
9.4.3	Market Analysis – 2007
9.4.4	Market developments – 2006
9.5	Telecommunications Act
9.5.1	Framework of the Telecommunications Act
9.5.2	The Commerce Commission
9.5.3	Standards New Zealand and the Telecommunications Carriers Forum
9.6	Government reforms on operational separation of Telecom – 2007
9.6.1	Government releases details of operational separation of Telecom
9.6.2	Government formerly announces operational separational split plan
9.6.3	Telecom’s reaction to government’s operational separation announcement
9.7	Background on operational separation policy reforms – 2006 - 2007
9.7.1	Overview of new government reforms
9.7.2	Telecom to separate wholesale and retail divisions
9.7.3	New Zealand moves towards operational separation of Telecom
9.7.4	New Zealand parliament passes the telecom reforms
9.7.5	Telecom proposes a transitional operational separation model
9.7.6	Telecom opts for structural separation – April 2007
9.7.7	Government to consider possibility of structural separation – July 2007
9.8	Analysis of the reforms on operational separation
9.8.1	Structural changes are proceeding – September 2007
9.9	Other market developments related to the Telecommunications Act – 2006
9.9.1	New Bill brought forward regarding amendment to Telecommunications Act
9.9.2	Telecom proposes establishment of industry working parties
9.9.3	New bill for broadband access (LLU)
9.10	Extension of period of regulation of telecommunication services
9.10.1	Preliminary findings from Commerce Commission – 2005
9.10.2	Update – November 2005
9.10.3	Update – June 2006
9.11	Mobile services reforms – 2007
9.11.1	Commerce Commission puts more pressure on mobile duopoly – October 2007
9.11.2	Commerce Commission issues draft mobile services recommendations – August 2007
9.12	Mobile services reforms – 2006
9.12.1	Market developments – 2006
9.13	Wholesale access
9.13.1	Operational separation
9.13.2	Market analysis – 2007
9.13.3	Market developments – 2006
9.14	Number Portability (NP)
9.14.1	Market developments – 2007
9.14.2	Background
9.15	Telecommunications Information Privacy Code
10.	COMPANY PROFILES AND ANALYSES
10.1	Telecom Corporation of New Zealand
10.1.1	Company information
10.1.2	Revenue statistics – 2006-2007
10.1.3	Market developments and strategy overview
10.1.4	Company structure
10.1.5	Mobile services
10.1.6	The network
10.1.7	Subsidiary and associate companies
10.1.8	Outsourcing agreements
10.1.9	Other services
10.1.10	Brief company history to 2004
10.1.11	Financial year – 2007
10.1.12	Analysis – late 2007
10.1.13	Strategy overview
10.1.14	Analysis of the reforms on operational separation
10.1.15	AAPT aligns with PowerTel
10.2	TelstraClear Limited
10.2.1	Company information
10.2.2	Operating statistics
10.2.3	The network
10.2.4	Company analysis
10.2.5	Company history
10.2.6	Products and services
10.3	Vodafone New Zealand Ltd
10.3.1	Company information
10.3.2	Major acquisitions
10.3.3	The network
10.3.4	Reseller agreements
10.3.5	Financial results – 2007
10.3.6	Subscriber and operating statistics
10.3.7	Company analyses
10.3.8	Company history
10.3.9	Products and services
11.	GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS
Exhibit 1 – Key revenue trends – period to 2015
Exhibit 2 – BuddeComm VoIP quality survey
Exhibit 3 – Timeline for LLU, ADSL2+, and NGN rollout, and operational separation
Exhibit 4 – Fibre network overview by provider
Exhibit 5 – Regulatory timeline – scheduled UBA launch by service variant
Exhibit 6 – Understanding wholesale bitstream offers around the world
Exhibit 7 – Telecom Corporation New Zealand at a glance
Exhibit 8 – Potential new organisational structure of Telecom – 2007
Exhibit 9 - Telecom’s subsidiary companies
Exhibit 10 - Telecom’s associate companies
Exhibit 11 – TelstraClear Ltd at a glance
Exhibit 12 – Vodafone New Zealand Ltd at a glance
Exhibit 13 – Comparison of Vodafone’s 3G mobile networks
Table 1 – Total market revenue by major service – 2004 - 2009
Table 2 – Annual change of total market revenue by service – 2005 - 2009
Table 3 – New Zealand market – local access and calling revenues – 2003 - 2009
Table 4 – Total market – local service & calling revenue by provider – 2003 - 2008
Table 5 – Country statistics – 2007
Table 6 – Telecom revenue statistics – 2007 - 2009
Table 7 – Telephone network statistics – 2007
Table 8 – Internet provider statistics – 2007
Table 9 – Internet user statistics – June 2007
Table 10 – Broadband statistics – June 2007
Table 11 – Mobile statistics – June 2007
Table 12 – Broadcasting statistics – 2007
Table 13 – ihug subscribers by market segment (New Zealand only) – 2004 - 2006
Table 14 – ihug revenue and annual change – 2001 - 2006
Table 15 – iiNet revenue by region (Australia & New Zealand) and annual change – 2005 - 2006
Table 16 – iiNet profit before tax by region (Australia and New Zealand) – 2005 - 2006
Table 17 – Total telco market revenue by major provider – 2003 - 2009
Table 18 – Annual change of total telco market revenue by major provider – 2004 - 2009
Table 19 – Percentage breakdown of total telco market revenue by major provider – 2003 - 2009
Table 20 - Telecom Group operating highlights and annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 21 – Telecom Group operating revenues by service and annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 22 – Telecom Group operating revenues by industry segment and annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 23 – Telecom – New Zealand operations: operating revenues by service & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 24 – TelstraClear total revenue and annual change – 2005 - 2008
Table 25 – Total market revenue by major service – 2004 - 2009
Table 26 – Annual change of total market revenue by service – 2005 - 2009
Table 27 – Percentage breakdown of total market revenue by major service – 2004 - 2009
Table 28 – Mobile market revenues by operator – 1997 - 2009
Table 29 – Mobile market revenue growth by operator – 1998 - 2009
Table 30 – Mobile market revenue market share by operator – 1997 - 2009
Table 31 – Data market revenue – broadband, dial-up and other data – 2004 - 2009
Table 32 – Data market revenue growth – broadband, dial-up and other data – 2005 - 2009
Table 33 – Data market revenue percentage breakdown – broadband, dial-up & other data – 2005 - 2008
Table 34 – ISP revenue estimates and annual change – 2002 - 2009
Table 35 – Local access and calling revenues and annual change – 2003 - 2009
Table 36 – Total market: local service & calling revenue by provider – 2003 - 2008
Table 37 – Total market: annual change in local service & calling revenue by provider – 2001 - 2008
Table 38 – Market share: local service & calling revenue by provider – 2003 - 2008
Table 39 – Telecommunications services revenue by market – 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 40 – Telecommunications services revenue share by market – 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 41 – Telecommunications services revenue by product – 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 42 – Telecommunications services revenue share by product – 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 43 – ‘Internet economy’ telco revenue – 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 44 – ‘Internet economy’ telco percentage of revenue – 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 45 – ‘Internet economy’ telco revenue – 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 46 – Access % of total telecoms spend – 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 47 – Content/advertising % total telecoms spend – 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 48 – Telecommunications services revenue by industry group – 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 49 – Telecommunications services revenue % by industry group – 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 50 – New Zealand market: local access and calling revenues – 2003 - 2009
Table 51 – Total market: local service & calling revenue by provider – 2003 - 2008
Table 52 – Total market: annual change in local service & calling revenue by provider – 2001 - 2008
Table 53 – Market share: local service & calling revenue by provider – 2003 - 2008
Table 54 – Telecom: New Zealand operations – local access, calling revenues & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 55 – New Zealand operations: total local service revenue – consumer, business & wholesale &annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 56 – New Zealand operations: total local service revenue – business, residential, smartphone & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 57 – New Zealand operations revenue: national, international, other & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 58 – New Zealand operations revenue: national, calls to mobile, 0800 & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 59 – New Zealand operations revenue: consumer, business, wholesale & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 60 – New Zealand operations revenue: international & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 61 – Telecom access lines and annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 62 – Telecom call minutes by call type & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 63 – Telecom call: average call price by call type & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 64 – Fixed-line residential low user basket – November 2006
Table 65 – Fixed-line residential medium user basket – November 2006
Table 66 – Fixed-line residential high user basket – November 2006
Table 67 – Fixed-line business SOHO basket – November 2006
Table 68 – Telecom average prices – 2006
Table 69 – New Zealand TSO annual cost – 2002 - 2006
Table 70 - Telecom Group operating highlights & annual change – 12 months to June 2007
Table 71 – Telecom Group operating revenues by service and annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 72 – New Zealand operations: operating revenues by service & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 73 – TCNZA revenue summary (historical) & annual change – 2000 - 2006
Table 74 - Telecom Group operating highlights & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 75 – Telecom Group operating revenues by service & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 76 – Telecom Group operating revenues by industry segment & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 77 – Telecom Group voice (calling) revenue & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 78 – Telecom Group EBIT by industry segment & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 79 – Telecom Group expenses & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 80 – Telecom Group capital expenditure & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 81 - Capital expenditure – 1998 - 2007
Table 82 – New Zealand operations: operating revenues by service & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 83 – New Zealand operations: expenses a& annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 84 – New Zealand operations: EBITDA & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 85 – New Zealand operations: total local service revenue – consumer, business, wholesale & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 86 – New Zealand operations: total local service revenue – business, residential, smartphone & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 87 – New Zealand operations: total calling revenue & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 88 – New Zealand operations: national calling revenue – calls, calls to mobile, 0800 & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 89 – New Zealand operations: national calling revenue – consumer, business, wholesale & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 90 – New Zealand operations: international national calling revenue & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 91 – NZ operations: mobile revenue & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 92 – NZ operations: mobile ARPU & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 93 – Telecom NZ data revenue by sector & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 94 – Telecom NZ data revenue by business, wholesale & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 95 – NZ operations: broadband & Internet revenue & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 96 – NZ operations: broadband revenue – consumer, business, wholesale & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 97 – Australian operations: operating revenues by service & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 98 – Australian operations: expenses & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 99 – Australian operations: EBITDA & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 100 - Telecom Group financial results & annual change – 2005 - 2006
Table 101 – Total revenue, expenses, EBITDA, EBIT, CAPEX & annual change – 2006 - 2007
Table 102 – Total revenue & annual change – 2005 - 2008
Table 103 - TelstraClear half year financial results & annual change – 2005 - 2006
Table 104 – Customer numbers: consumer and business – 2004; 2006
Table 105 – Residential cable network operating statistics – mid-2007
Table 106 – Vodafone 2G and 3G network cell sites – October 2006
Table 107 – Vodafone revenue overview & annual change – 1996 - 2008
Table 108 – Vodafone annual profit & annual change – 2002 - 2006
Table 109 – Monthly ARPU: prepaid, postpaid & total – 2003 - 2007
Table 110 – Vodafone subscribers & annual change – 1998 - 2007
Table 111 – Vodafone subscribers by quarter – 2004 - 2007
Table 112 – Vodafone subscriber statistics by network – 2005 - 2006
Table 113 – Voice minute usage on network – 2005 - 2007