发布时间：2008

摘要

This report differs from its predecessors in that it includes BMI's Insurance Business Environment Rating (IBER). The rating brings together a number of pieces of relevant quantitative data, together with BMI's Country Risk Rating (CRR). It is now much easier to consider the business environment for the insurance sector in any one country relative to the business environment for other industries in that country that are surveyed by BMI, and the business environment for the insurance sector in other countries.

Slovenia's IBER is 62.6. Relative to other countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), it is a highly attractive insurance market for foreign insurers. Within the region, Slovenia stands out for its country structure and regulatory framework. The economic outlook is germane. Government policies are likely toremain constant over the long term. However, the IBER is held back by the underdevelopment of the life segment. It is also held back by the external risk and bureaucracy in Slovenia.

Over the forecast period, we anticipate that non-life premiums will grow by 8% annually in local currency terms and by 7% in US dollar terms. Life premiums are expected to increase by 15% annually in local currency terms and by 14% in US dollar terms. The key drivers of growth in the non-life segment in 2007-2012 are the anticipated rise in non-life density from around US$855 to US$1,193 and an expected increase in life penetration from 1.49% of GDP to 2.19%. The key driver of growth in the life segment is the envisaged rise in life density from about US$314 to US$600, and the population is slowly increasing. Neither the life nor the non-life segment is particularly open to participation by foreign groups, as they are both largely controlled by former state monopolies. The top five local firms claim 90% of the total market. There could be a realignment of interests within Austria's financial services, which means that Grawe or UNIQA would rethink their commitment to non-life insurance in some of the smaller markets in the CEE region. Alternatively, there could be a piecemeal sale of individual operations across the region.

Compared with the other countries in Eastern Europe, Slovenia has a very strong economy and is likely to grow further. It is likely to remain largely stable regardless of the upcoming elections in October, due to a broad political and economic consensus. While the market is not easily penetrated from the outside, Slovenian insurers are branching out and developing businesses off shore. There remain a large number of people with insufficient or indeed no insurance.

There are few players, however, in the Slovenian market, and the top five companies hold 90% of the market. Rationalisation, therefore, is not as much of a factor here as in other Eastern European countries. Slovenia's economy may also be adversely affected by a decrease in its export market, due to the slowing down of its main trading partners. The rate of inflation is also one of the largest in the EU.

目录及图表

Chapter 1 - The Sector At A Glance

Table: Slovenia Overview

Key Features Of This Report And Likely Future Changes

Chapter 2 - Latest News

Recent Developments

Chapter 3 - Evolution Since The Mid-1990s

Table: Slovenia Evolution Of The Insurance Sector (In Millions Of Currency Specified)

Evolution

Chapter 4 - Projections And Forecasts

Table: Slovenia BMI Projections (In Millions Of Currency Specified)

Projections And Drivers Of Growth

Chapter 5 - Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: GDP, Output And Population

Chapter 6 - Country Update

Political Risk Montenegro Recognised

Economic Risk Accelerating Growth

Business Environment Banking Sector Stable

Table: Non-Life Segment Rankings Of Markets

Table: Presence Of Non-Life Cross-Border Insurers

Table: Selected Local Non-Life Insurers

Table: Life Segment Rankings Of Markets

Table: Presence of Life Cross-Border Insurers

Table: Selected Local Life Insurers

Whos Who In The Central And Eastern European Region?

Chapter 7 - Regional Context

Table: Regional Context - Premiums

Table: Regional Context Total Premiums

Chapter 8 - Methodology And Objectives

Introduction

Background

Forecasts

Chapter 9 - Appendix

Table: Latest Estimates / Actual Figures For 2005

Table: Latest estimates for 2010

Table: Latest Estimates For 2005-2010