发布时间：2008
摘要
In a regional – let alone global – context Serbia is a small market. In 2012 this will still be the case. In local currency terms, we are looking for non-life premiums to grow by 17% annually. This is an acceleration relative to calendar-year 2006, when premiums rose by just 9% in local currency terms. The latest figures suggest that the growth in the extremely underdeveloped life segment is actually slowing, which is broadly our expectation for the forecast period. Life premiums rose by 23% in calendar-year 2006 in local currency terms. We are looking for them to grow by 12% annually in 2007-2012.
For the first time we have looked at the different lines that make up the non-life segment. Unsurprisingly for a relatively low-income country, where insurance is underdeveloped, the non-life segment is dominated by motor insurance in general and compulsory third party motor liability (CTPML) business in particular. Figures published by the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) suggest that the increase in CTPML premiums in 2006 was entirely as a result of an increase in premium prices. The number of policies outstanding hardly grew at all. There is some evidence of downwards pressure on premium prices in the much smaller voluntary motor insurance segment.
As one might expect in a relatively underdeveloped market, claims – at around RSD15,000mn annually – are running at well below premiums. The competitive landscape is such that most market participants can and do achieve significant technical profits. This may change. The long-running privatisation of DDOR Novi Sad, the second-largest player (with an overall market share of around 30%) should be completed later in 2007. A long list of foreign insurers, some of whom have anyway established a presence in Serbia, have indicated an interest in participating in the likely auction. In the meantime, the number of foreign insurers who are competing in the market is quite large relative to the current and potential opportunity. Some of the names – Wiener Städtische, Grawe and UNIQA, for instance – are Austrian groups with aspirations to build major regional businesses across Central and Eastern Europe. Others – such as Merkur, Basler/Baloise and Crédit Agricole Insurance – are perhaps less expected. The largest foreign-owned player is Delta Generali Osiguranje.
In the meantime, the NBS is reassured by the growth in assets and capital of the insurance sector over the last two years or so. It appears that everyone is gearing up for a general expansion in business. In early 2007 the life segment, and the new Voluntary Pension Funds in particular, was the focus of a lot of media comment and excitement. Unlike the non-life segment, and the insurance sector as a whole, the life segment is dominated by foreign owned insurers. DDOR Novi Sad and Dunav Osiguranje, the stateowned group that is the largest insurer overall, account for less than 20% of life premiums. The life segment remains tiny. The net asset value of the Voluntary Pension Funds is still less than US$20mn. Seven companies have been granted licences to manage the new Voluntary Pension Funds. Over the long term the insurance sector should be a significant beneficiary of Serbia's ultimate membership of the WTO and the EU. In the meantime, however, the status of Kosovo remains an obstacle to the country's joining either of these international bodies.
目录及图表
The Sector At A Glance
Table: Overview Of The Serbian Insurance Sector
Key Insights On The Insurance Sector Of Serbia
SWOT Analysis
Serbia Insurance Industry SWOT
Key Features Of This Report
Latest News
Table: Analysis By Lines
Projections And Forecasts
Table: Premium Growth, 2005-2012
Projections And Drivers Of Growth
Table: Growth Drivers
Country Update
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Serbia – Economic Activity
Political Outlook
Insurance Business Environment Ratings
Table: Serbia – Insurance Business Environment Indicators
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Insurance Business Environment Rankings
Regional Context
Table: Non-Life Premiums In A Regional Context, 2007
Table: Life Premiums In A Regional Context, 2007
Table: Comparison Of Major Lines As % Non-Life Premiums, 2006
Analysis Of Competitive Conditions
Serbia – Non-Life Segment
Table: Presence Of Cross-Border Insurers, Non-Life
Serbia – Life Segment
Table: Presence Of Cross-Border Insurers, Life
Methodology
Basis Of Projections
Insurance Business Environment Rating
Table: Insurance Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Table: Weighting Of Indicators