发布时间：2008

摘要

This report differs from its predecessors in that it includes BMI's Insurance Business Environment Rating (IBER). The rating brings together a number of pieces of relevant quantitative data, together with BMI's Country Risk Rating (CRR). It is now much easier to consider the business environment for the insurance sector in any one country relative to the business environment for other industries in that country that are surveyed by BMI, and the business environment for the insurance sector in other countries.

Bulgaria's IBER is 50.7. Relative to other countries in Central and Eastern Europe, it is not an attractive insurance market for foreign insurers. Within the region, Bulgaria stands out for its stable regulatory framework. Government policies are likely to remain constant over the long-term. However, Bulgaria's IBER is held back by the very small size of the life segment and its BMI Country Risk Factors, particularly its external risk.

Over the forecast period, we anticipate that non-life premiums will grow by 18% annually in local currency terms and by 18% in US$ terms. Life premiums are expected to increase by 10% annually in local currency terms and by 9% in US$ terms. The key drivers of growth in the non-life segment in 2007- 2012 are the anticipated rise in non-life density from around US$102 to US$178 and an expected increase in life density from US$18 per capita in 2007 to US$26 per capita in 2012. Bulgaria's total population is declining.

The Bulgarian life market is small, with scope for future growth and development. There are few barriers to entry to either market, and foreign insurers are becoming well established in Bulgaria, although there is significant room for further expansion. Significant rationalisation is likely in the future and this could give rise to new entrants in the life segment from overseas.

Both the life and non-life sectors of the Bulgarian insurance market are unusually open to foreign participants. This is unusual for the region, where many remain in the control of former state monopolies. Overall, the industry is relatively fragmented – notwithstanding that particular local firms have dominance in particular areas and lines. This means that there is a potential for rationalisation, which is good news for multi-national insurers. Foreign insurers are becoming well established in Bulgaria, although there is significant room for further expansion. Over the medium term, an economic slowdown may provide the catalyst for a substantial rationalisation of the non-life segment. There would appear to be plenty of potential to buy into the market through acquisitions of smaller local players in the life market.

However, an economic slowdown seems likely in the medium term. The life segment is as yet very small, and volatility in Bulgaria's underdeveloped capital markets might also mean that the insurance market will be unpredictable. External risk has been identified as a problem for Bulgaria, and this is reflected in its low IBER.

目录及图表

Chapter 1 - The Sector At A Glance

Table: Bulgaria Overview

Key Insights On The Insurance Sector Of Bulgaria

Key Features Of This Report And Likely Future Changes

Chapter 2 - Latest News

Recent Developments

Chapter 3 - Evolution Since The Mid-1990s

Table: Bulgaria Evolution of the Insurance Sector (in millions of currency specified)

Evolution

Chapter 4 - Projections And Forecasts

Table: Bulgaria BMI Projections (in millions of currency specified)

Projections And Drivers Of Growth

Chapter 5 - Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: GDP, Output & Population

Chapter 6 - Country Update

Political Risk Countdown To October

Economic Risk Aiming High

Business Environment More Roads

Chapter 7 - Analysis of Competitive Conditions

Country Overview Bulgaria Non-Life Segment

Table: Non-Life Segment Rankings of Markets

Table: Presence of Non-Life Cross-Border Insurers

Table: Selected Local Non-Life Insurers

Table: Life Segment Rankings of Markets

Table: Presence of Life Cross-Border Insurers

Table: Selected Local Life Insurers

Whos who in the Central and Eastern European region?

Chapter 8 - Regional Context

Table: Regional Context - premiums

Table: Regional Context Total premiums

Chapter 9 - Methodology And Objectives

Introduction

Background

Forecasts

Chapter 10 - Appendix

Table: Latest Estimates / Actual Figures For 2005

Table: Latest Estimates For 2010

Table: Latest Estimates For 2005-2010