发布时间：2008

摘要

This report differs from its predecessors in that it includes BMI's Insurance Business Environment Rating (IBER). The rating brings together a number of pieces of relevant quantitative data, together with BMI's Country Risk Rating (CRR). It is now much easier to consider the business environment for the insurance sector in any one country relative to the business environment for other industries in that country that are surveyed by BMI, and the business environment for the insurance sector in other countries.

Indonesia's IBER is 50.7. On this measure Indonesia is ranked 11th of the 15 countries in Asia surveyed by BMI. Relative to the more highly ranked countries in Asia, Indonesia lags especially in the areas of structure, regulatory framework and risk. The level of political volatility, the lack of reliability in the legal process and the opaque nature of the bureaucracy all drag on the overall rating.

Over the forecast period, we anticipate that non-life premiums will grow by 13% annually in local currency terms and by 15% in US dollar terms. Life premiums are expected to increase by 15% annually in local currency terms and by 17% in US dollar terms. The key drivers of growth in the non-life segment in 2007-2012 are the anticipated rise in nominal GDP from around US$422bn to US$592bn and an expected increase in non-life penetration from 0.60% of GDP to 0.85%. The key driver of growth in the life segment is the envisaged rise in life density from US$16.75 per capita in 2007 to US$35.00 per capita in 2012. Over the same period, Indonesia's population will grow from 228mn to 241mn.

The competitive landscape, in both the non-life and the life segment, is fragmented. Both segments are open to participation by foreign groups. There are a number of local firms but none holds a dominating position in either the life or non-life sectors. By conventional standards most are small but they have proven resilient to survive through the various political and economic turmoil of the past. The market is comparatively open to new entrants and a number of the major multinational firms are represented in both sectors.

Indonesia's non-life segment is dominated by motor vehicle insurance, which accounts for 45% of total premium income and property/fire, which accounts for another 20%. The overall market is small, but growing and it has significant long term potential. A number of the major international insurers appear to share the view that while not especially attractive at present the prospective market size makes it simply too big to ignore.

Currently the life sector is both 35% larger than the non-life sector and it is growing more rapidly. Product density though is still very low.

目录及图表

Chapter 1 - The Sector At A Glance

Table: Overview

Key Features Of This Report & Likely Future Changes

Chapter 2 - Latest News

Recent Developments

Chapter 3 - Evolution Since The Mid-1990s

Table: Evolution Of The Insurance Sector (in millions of currency specified)

Evolution

Chapter 4 - Projections And Forecasts

Table: BMI Projections (in millions of currency specified)

Projections And Drivers Of Growth

Chapter 5 - Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity

Chapter 6 - Country Update

Political Risk Closer US Ties

Economic Risk Earthquake Costs

Business Environment Persistent Corruption Concerns

Country Overview Indonesia Non-Life Segment

Table: Non-Life Segment Rankings of Markets

Table: Presence Of Cross-Border Insurers Non-Life

Table: Selected Local Insurers

Table: Life Segment Rankings of Markets

Table: Presence Of Cross-Border Insurers Life

Table: Selected Local Life Insurers

Chapter 7 - Regional Context

Table: Regional Context premiums

Table: Regional Context Total Premiums

Chapter 8 - Methodology And Objectives

Introduction

Background

Forecasts

Chapter 9 - Appendix

Table: Latest Estimates / Actual Figures For 2005

Table: Latest Estimates For 2010

Table: Latest Estimates For 2005-2010