发布时间：2008.8

摘要

Countries covered: Australia

After a record performance in 2007, Australia’s new vehicle market is maintaining momentum, with growth of 3.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in H108 to 542,695 units. Sales for June rose by 1.4% to 106,541 units, which, BMI suggests in its recently published Australia Automotives Report, shows that the earlier effects of rates increases that dragged on monthly sales at the end of Q108 have been overcome.

Moreover, fuel prices still seem to be playing little part as sales of SUVs rose by 13.2% during the sixmonth period to June, despite a 1.6% contraction in the total passenger car market. We would expect total sales to finish the year up by around 3% at 1.079mn units. The production industry, on the other hand, is facing setbacks. After General Motors subsidiary Holden announced that it would be cutting 600 jobs from its Adelaide-based plant, Japan’s Mitsubishi revealed that it would be closing its local production facility altogether. In June, tyre maker Goodyear showed that the supply segment was not immune to the industry’s difficulties, when it announced the closure of its South Pacific Tyres subsidiary in Somerton, Victoria by the end of 2008. Japan's Bridgestone, on the other hand, has confirmed its commitment to maintaining its Australian operations, but has announced that it will be raising product prices to accommodate escalating raw material costs.

Despite its problems, Australia ranks second in BMI’s Business Environment Ranking for the automotive industry in Asia Pacific with a score of 65.5 from a possible 100. The developed nature of the country means that Australia is at a disadvantage due to its near-saturated autos market, which reduces growth potential. On the other hand, high levels of GDP increase purchasing power, while market risks are reduced by low levels of corruption and a strong legal framework. After Mitsubishi’s departure, the industry will be left with just three manufacturers, providing opportunity for new investors, while the government’s support for ‘green’ car projects has already attracted additional investment from Toyota.

The three remaining producers occupy the top three places in Australia’s sales rankings, perhaps showing that there is still some advantage to local production. Toyota is easily the market leader with around 20% of sales, while GM Holden and Ford follow in second and third respectively. Furthermore, Toyota is growing in its dominance. In Q108, the Holden Commodore lost its position as Australia’s best-selling car model for a full quarter, marking the first time in a decade that this has happened. Although pipped by Toyota’s imported Corolla in seven separate months over the past three years, this is the first sustained challenge to the locally produced large car. Moreover, the margin was convincing with sales of 12,002 Corollas, compared with 11,511 Commodores over the January to March period.

目录及图表

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Australia Autos Industry SWOT

Business Environment Ranking

Table: Business Environment Ratings - Autos Industry Asia Pacific

Industry Forecast Scenario

Production and Sales

Trade

Economic Contribution

Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Economic Activity - Historical Data And Forecasts 21

Competitive Landscape

Market Overview

Table: Australia Vehicle Production

Table: Australia Vehicle Sales Top Ten

Industry Developments - Alternative Fuels

Commercial Vehicle Segment

Table: Australia Commercial Vehicle Market (2001-2007) . 25

Suppliers

Company Monitor

Honda Asia Pacific Regional Overview

Table: Honda Investments In Asia Pacific

Table: Honda Asia Pacific Sales By Country 2007

Toyota

GM Holden

Simulating A ‘Deep’ US Recession

USA

World

Eurozone

Asia EX-Japan

China

Mexico

Africa

Asia Pacific Automotives Recession Scenario

Table: Cumulative Difference In Vehicle Sales (US$bn) In US Recession Scenario By Market

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources