发布时间：2008.8

摘要

Countries covered: India

After becoming one of the world’s fastest growing automotive markets, India has started to show the first signs of slowing down in the early months of FY2008/09. Although sales for April to June were on a par with the same period of the previous financial year, with growth of 12.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) compared with 12.7% in the first quarter of FY2007/08, sales growth of 6.1% y-o-y for the month of June itself was the lowest growth for the new financial year so far. However, BMI suggests in its recently published India Automotives Report, that the trend is not a negative one for all segments of the industry.

The commercial vehicle segment grew by 13.5% in June, bolstered by bus orders from state transport companies. Similarly, sales of motorcycles in India have recovered from the 11.9% drop in the last financial year, growing by 8.3% y-o-y in June. All in all, this deceleration in sales growth fits with BMI's expectation of a drop in growth over a two year period from 23% in the year ended March 2007 to around 11.6% for the current financial year, with growth in the passenger car segment staying flat at around 12% y-o-y. Indeed, the growth of the commercial segment has attracted significant investment to India, with Germany’s Daimler teaming up with domestic two-wheeler specialist Hero Group to build a INR30bn (US$700mn) truck plant.

India’s continued draw as an investment destination is underlined by its fourth place in BMI’s new Business Environment Ratings for the automotive industry in Asia Pacific, with a score of 58.6 from a potential 100. Areas for improvement, however, include the market’s regulatory environment. Although the country scores well for the government’s ‘green’ stance on encouraging the purchase of smaller vehicles, hybrids are still made prohibitively expensive by the high tax on all imported vehicles. This is easily offset by the country’s production and sales growth potential, although a low score for its Country Structure (again caused by a large gap between wealthy towns and poorer rural areas) acts as a restriction on future penetration rates.

Consumer trends within the industry are reflected in the competitive landscape, with some of the strongest growth for the first quarter of the new financial year coming from producers of small cars and two-wheelers. Maruti Suzuki, which dominated the market in the last financial year with a market share of over 50%, registered growth of 12% for domestic sales and 38% for exports, maintaining its market leadership. Hero Honda, meanwhile, recorded its highest ever sales in June as two- and three-wheelers once again become the cheaper viable alternative to cars.

目录及图表

SWOT Analysis

India Auto Industry SWOT

India Economic SWOT

India Business Environment SWOT

Business Environment Ranking

Table: Business Environment Ratings - Autos Industry Asia Pacific

Industry Forecast Scenario

Production and Sales

Table: India Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts 16

Trade

Table: India Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts 18

Economic Contribution

Table: India Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts 19

Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: India Economic Activity

Competitive Landscape

Market Overview

Industry Developments

Manufacturers - Passenger Cars

Table: India Domestic Passenger Vehicle Sales, March-February (CBUs)

Segment Developments

Alternative Fuel

Premium Segment

Commercial Segment

Table: India Commercial Vehicle Sales (CBUs)

Table: India Commercial Vehicle Production (CBUs)

Commercial Vehicle Segment Developments

Suppliers

Company Monitor

Honda Asia Pacific Regional Overview

Table: Honda Investments In Asia Pacific

Table: Honda Asia Pacific Sales By Country 2007

Company Profiles

Maruti Suzuki

Tata Motors

Hyundai

Mahindra & Mahindra

Simulating A ‘Deep’ US Recession

USA

World

EUROZONE

Asia Ex-Japan

China

Mexico

Africa

Asia Pacific Automotives Recession Scenario

Table: Cumulative Difference In Vehicle Sales (US$bn) In US Recession Scenario By Market

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources