发布时间：2008.8

摘要

Countries covered: Indonesia

Indonesia’s new vehicle market looks set to sustain the recovery staged in 2007, with the potential for a record year in 2008. Sales for the first half of the year were up by 48% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 292,589 units, which means sales should meet the 521,000 units forecast by BMI in its recently published Indonesia Automotives Report. Bambang Trisulo, chairman of the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), told local press the sales growth of the first six months suggests that a record could be achievable. This would mean surpassing the last record sales experienced in 2005, which stood at 534,000 units, although Trisulo claims that he would prefer to stick to the association’s previous forecast of 520,000 units.

Production will also be boosted by Daihatsu’s intention to raise the output capacity of its Indonesian plant by 25% in the financial year ending March 2009. The annual production capacity of the plant, which produces the company’s compact models, will be raised to around 250,000 units as the company looks to capitalise on a shift towards smaller cars in the face of rising fuel prices. A second production line was already added to the plant in November 2007 and now working hours will be extended to cover the expansion. As a result of such projects, BMI expects production to rise by around 12.5% in 2008 and retain double-digit growth for the next five years.

Indonesia will always have an appeal for investors as the South East Asia’s largest passenger car market and as such, ranks sixth in BMI’s new Business Environment Ratings for the automotive industry in Asia Pacific on a score of 56.2 from a possible 100. Low labour costs and a competitive environment, with room for new players, increase Indonesia’s attractiveness, as do its recently upgraded regulations on intellectual property rights (IPRs), which boost its regulatory environment rating. The country’s risks to realisation of returns act as a drag however, with low scores for corruption, bureaucracy and the legal framework.

Although the competitive landscape remains largely unchanged in the year-to-date, with Toyota retaining its stranglehold over the market, a hike in Indonesia's subsidised fuel prices has had a varied impact on Indonesia's leading vehicle distributors. Indomobil Sukses International, which represents the Nissan, Suzuki, Hino, Volvo and Audi brands, claims to have been largely unaffected by the price hike of almost 30% and has raised its sales target for the year. On the other hand, the country's largest vehicle distributor, Astra International, will be reducing its sales target on the back of the rising fuel prices. The shortfall in sales could be between 5% and 7% by year-end, according to a company spokesman.

目录及图表

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Indonesia Auto Industry SWOT

Indonesia Economic SWOT

Indonesia Business Environment SWOT

Suppliers Show Their Green Credentials

Business Environment Ranking

Table: Business Environment Ratings - Autos Industry Asia Pacific

Industry Forecast Scenario

Production and Sales

Table: Indonesia Automotive Market Historical Data And Forecasts

Trade

Table: Indonesia Automotive Market Historical Data And Forecasts

Economic Contribution

Table: Indonesia Autos Sector - Historical Data And Fo 17

Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

2007 GDP Growth Rate Unsustainable

Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Competitive Landscape

Market Overview

Year-To-Date

Passenger Segment

Motorcycle Segment

Commercial Segment

Commercial Segment Developments

Company Monitor

Honda Asia Pacific Regional Overview

Table: Honda Investments In Asia Pacific

Table: Honda Asia Pacific Sales By Country 2007

Company Profiles

Toyota Astra Motor

Suzuki

Simulating A ‘Deep’ US Recession

USA

World

Eurozone

Asia ex-Japan

China

Mexico

Africa

Asia Pacific Automotives Recession Scenario

Table: Cumulative Difference In Vehicle Sales (US$bn) In US Recession Scenario By Market

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources