发布时间：2008.8

摘要

Countries covered: Pakistan

Pakistan’s new vehicle sales took a downturn in the latter months of FY2007/08, which ended June 2008. After strong car sales in the first nine months of the financial year, BMI’s recently published Pakistan Automotives Report shows that total vehicle sales ended the year down by 6.2% year-on-year (y-o-y).

Production strength in the nine-month period also led to an upwards revision of our production forecast for the financial year to June 2008, but the last three months again dragged on the full-year total, resulting in a decline of over 4% for total production. Price competition from imports of used cars (now permitted for vehicles up to three years old), has been blamed by local manufacturers for a lack of larger volume capacity investment.

This could prove problematic as the government aims to meet its output targets under the Automotive Industry Development Plan (AIDP), a five-year plan under which the government aims to increase the local production of vehicles from 200,000 in 2005-2006 to 500,000 in 2011. The focus is to make the local auto industry more competitive, creating capacity for local design and innovation, domestic competition, human-resource development and auto-cluster development. Based on current trends and planned investments, however, BMI believes that total manufacturing capacity will rise to around 300,000 completely built units (CBUs) per year by the end of the decade.

The restricted growth potential of Pakistan’s automotive production sector drags on the market’s overall score in BMI’s Business Environment Ratings for the auto industry in Asia Pacific. In the latest ratings, Pakistan lags in 13th place with a score of 42.5 from a possible 100. However, as a signatory to the Trade- Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) under the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the country’s regulatory environment scores well. A number of free trade agreements (FTAs) also contribute to this score, although forming FTAs with non-Asian countries would improve this area further. Despite low marks for bureaucracy and corruption, the market scores well for its long-term economic risk and policy continuity.

Japanese car manufacturers control most of Pakistan’s passenger-car production and sales. Figures for FY07/08 show that Suzuki-brand models represented 62% of total Pakistani passenger car production and 51.7% of sales. The Suzuki Mehran also won back its place as Pakistan’s best-selling model for the year after losing to the Toyota Corolla in the previous financial year Honda is Pakistan’s third-largest car producer and has an 8.6% share of sales. Honda is easily the runaway leader of the motorcycle market, which returned to growth in FY07/08, with 70.5% of sales and 70.6%. Yamaha is the nearest challenger with 9.8% of the market.

目录及图表

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Pakistan Auto Industry SWOT

Pakistan Economic SWOT

Pakistan Business Environment SWOT

Suppliers Show Their Green Credentials

Business Environment Ranking

Table: Business Environment Ratings - Autos Industry Asia Pacific

Industry Forecast Scenario

Production And Sales

Table: Pakistan Automotive Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts

Trade

Table: Pakistan Automotive Sector Historical Data And Forecasts

Economic Contribution

Table: Pakistan Automotive Sector Historical Data And Forecasts

Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Pakistan Economic Activity

Competitive Landscape

Market Overview

Passenger Cars

Table: Pakistan Sales And Production By Brand, 2001-2007 (CBUs)

Motorcycles

Table: Pakistan Automotive Sector - Production And Sales Of Motorcycles, By Make (CBUs)

Commercial Vehicles

Table: Pakistan Commercial Vehicle Sales, 2000-2007 (CBUs)

Company Monitor

Honda Asia Pacific Regional Overview

Table: Honda Investments In Asia Pacific

Table: Honda Asia Pacific Sales By Country 2007

Company Profiles

Pak Suzuki

Toyota

Honda

Simulating A ‘Deep’ US Recession

USA

World

Eurozone

Asia Ex-Japan

China

Mexico

Africa

Asia Pacific Automotives Recession Scenario

Table: Cumulative Difference In Vehicle Sales (US$bn) In US Recession Scenario By Market

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources