发布时间：2008.8

摘要

Countries covered: Singapore

Rising inflation and fuel prices have led BMI to revise its vehicle sales forecast downwards in its recently published Singapore Automotives Report. Despite being the cheaper option, the compact car segment registered the worst performance in the year to May 2008, as sales fell by 21% year-on-year (y-o-y). Sales of vehicles over 1600cc fell by 2.8% in comparison. The drop has been blamed on inflation pushing up the cost of loans for budget cars. BMI had previously forecast a recovery in sales for 2008, which now looks unattainable. Currently, the market is on track to just exceed 100,000 units, which would be a massive decline in the region of 25% y-o-y.

A report in the local Straits Times quoted Vertex Automobile General Manager Paul Ng as saying the level of inflation means that consumers who would normally be in the budget car segment will be spending on necessities rather than luxury purchases such as a car. On the other hand, consumers in the premium car segment are less likely to be concerned by fuel prices and other running costs. The trend is noticeable in sales results by company, where seven of the 10 carmakers to post positive growth over the five-month period to May were luxury brands. Away from the four-wheel market, sales of motorcycles and scooters rose in the same period, which is a trend witnessed in other Asian markets following a hike in fuel prices.

Despite high scores for its regulatory environment and low economic and political risk, Singapore rounds out BMI’s Business Environment Ratings for the automotive industry in Asia Pacific in 14th place with a score of 38.8 from a possible 100. Singapore, along with Thailand, has the highest number of free trade agreements completed for an Asian market and scores highly on this basis for its trade opportunities. However, in industry terms, the lack of domestic production facilities and the imposition of vehicle quotas, which restrict potential sales growth, drag on the market’s overall rating.

Japanese manufacturers dominate the competitive landscape in Singapore. In 2007, Toyota led the passenger car segment with a 21.01% market share, down from its full-year market share of 25.01% in 2006 and also climbed back to the top of the commercial vehicle segment with a 34.23% share. This is compared to its 16.45% share of the commercial market in 2006 when it fell to third. Isuzu took second in the commercial segment with 18.7% and Mitsubishi (Goldbell) third with 14.5%. In the passenger segment, Toyota was again followed by two compatriots with Honda and Nissan in second and third respectively. Honda was one of the few companies to achieve positive growth, which helped the company to leapfrog Nissan for second place.

目录及图表

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Singapore Auto Industry SWOT

Singapore Economic SWOT

Singapore Business Environment SWOT

Business Environment Ranking

Table: Business Environment Ratings - Autos Industry Asia Pacific

Table: Singapore Automotive Sector Registered Vehicles - Historical Data And Forecasts (CBUs)

Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Singapore - Economic Activity

Competitive Landscape

Market Overview

Table: Singapore New Passenger Vehicle Registrations By Company - 2007 (Top 20)

Commercial Vehicles

Table: Singapore Commercial Vehicle Market

Key Players

Table: Singapore Commercial Vehicle Market By Brand, 2007

Company Monitor

Honda Asia Pacific Regional Overview

Table: Honda Investments In Asia Pacific

Table: Honda Asia Pacific Sales By Country 2007

Company Profiles

Toyota

BMW

Simulating A ‘Deep’ US Recession

USA

World

Eurozone

Asia Ex-Japan

China

Mexico

Africa

Asia Pacific Automotives Recession Scenario

Table: Cumulative Difference In Vehicle Sales (US$bn) In US Recession Scenario By Market

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources