发布时间：2008

摘要

From Q108 we will be calculating the Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER) for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. This will permit a more systematic and comprehensive comparison of the conditions within the banking industries of the various countries than was possible in the past. For each country, it will also facilitate a comparison of the conditions within the banking sector and conditions prevailing in other sectors.

Mexico's overall CBBER is 62. The equivalent figures for the USA and the eurozone are 84.8 and 81.4, respectively. Mexico's CBBER is higher than that of the other Latin American countries surveyed by BMI except Brazil and Chile. It is also higher than that of eight of the 16 (or 75% of the) countries in Central and Eastern Europe surveyed by BMI.

Within the CBBER, the most important aspect is the commercial banking market structure element of the limits of potential returns. This element accounts for 42% of the overall CBBER. Mexico's rating for this element – 58.1 – is only marginally lower than the country's overall CBBER and roughly equivalent to the country structure element of the limits of potential returns – 57.4. This indicates a commercial banking sector whose development is neither substantially over- or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country.

Nevertheless, the CBBER highlights the factors that are holding back Mexico's banking sector. One is the relatively high potential level of volatility in the broader economy. Another is the modest estimated growth in total assets. On the positive side for Mexico, despite the potential for economic volatility, the potential for long-term financial risks for the commercial banking sector remains low.

Mexico's overall macroeconomic outlook remains positive in the medium term, ad we are confident that the economy is making strides towards securing a sustainable rate of economic expansion, after years of unpredictable and often volatile expansion. However, recent tremors in the global financial markets are likely to confirm our view of weaker Mexican economic expansion in 2007.

Mexico is likely to come up against some considerable challenges over the next 12 months, which could potentially knock the economy off course. Economic activity struggled to gather pace in 2007: real GDP growth (as measured by the IGAE index) and industrial production averaged a lacklustre 2.7% and 0.7% respectively in H107, and the prospects for 2008 remain clouded.

One risk to growth that cannot be ignored emanates from north of the border. Our outlook for US GDP growth is coloured by a very negative view on the local real estate sector. A US slowdown could have any number of effects on Mexico given their economic and geopolitical proximity, rendering Mexico much.