发布时间：2008.7

摘要

Countries covered: Malaysia

The effects of the demerger of Telekom Malaysia into two separate and distinct operations began to be felt inthe quarter. Shareholder approval to spin off its mobile and non-Malaysian business Telekom Malaysia (TM)International with its domestic fixed-line voice, data and broadband operations into a stand alone companywere met. By April 2008, TM International had been listed on the Malaysian stock exchange, and althoughshares rallied reaching a high of MYR8.20 in the first few minutes of trading, beyond the guideline ofMYR7.85 per share, after the first half hour, they had fallen to MYR7.75. This indicated concern in the marketthat investors would like to see how the operator and its management performed before supporting shares.

Despite these concerns, however, Telekom Malaysia has been quick to get started on cultivating each of itsunits. The operator announced its intentions to deploy a multi-million broadband network across the country’smajor urban areas in an effort to support subscriber growth. Broadband accounts for very little of theoperator’s total revenues, but with its subscriber base accounting for 96% of the total broadband market andwitnessing growth of 46% during the year, it believes it has the ability to help drive up the sector’s penetrationrates, a view also held by the government. The operator believes it can launch high-speed broadband servicesover its existing network, helping to cut down the cost of services, but speed up services quickly.

In 2007, the number of broadband subscribers rose by 48% to reach 1.369mn. BMI’s estimate was not far off,and we expect that, by the end of 2008, the number of subscribers could more than double to reach 2.8mn,obtaining a penetration rate of 10.4% before rising to 33% at the end of our five-year forecast in 2012.

In terms of mobile growth, Telekom Malaysia’s domestic unit Celcom has had a tougher time. Although it didnot fare badly, accounting for 37.6% of the total market net additions at the end of 2007, just behind Maxis on39.2%, the maturity of the sector (penetration rate of 89% as of YE07) has meant growth prospects remaintough. Naturally, the creation of an independent unit, TM International, has seen the operator look foradditional growth in the overseas markets, but in terms of its domestic performance, the operator is nowlooking to migrate its customers onto lucrative postpaid and 3G services. This remains the overwhelmingstrategy among all of the country’s operators. A lack of 3G subscriber information prevents us from providingan accurate picture of the market, but we estimate on our latest available data that the there were roughly justover 1mn 3G subscribers at the end of 2007. This represents a penetration rate of under 5%, but shows thatthere are future growth prospects. Indeed, U Mobile has become the latest operator to commercially launch 3Gservices in the capital Kuala Lumpur, having trialled services in the Klang Valley in September 2007. Theoperator estimates that it will have signed 3.1mn customers by 2010, no doubt spurred on by theimplementation of mobile number portability.

目录及图表

Executive Summary

Table: Malaysia Business Environment SWOT

Business Environment Rankings

Asia

Malaysia

Table: Asia Pacific Business Environment Rankings

Industry Forecast Scenario

Mobile

Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data &

Fixed Line

Table: Malaysian Telecoms Sector - Fixed Lines - Historical Data & Forecasts

Internet

Table: Malaysian Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts

Market Data Analysis

Mobile

Table: Malaysia Mobile Market (2007)

Table: Malaysia Mobile Net Additions (2007)

Table: Malaysia's ARPU Divide (MYR)

3G

Fixed Line

Table: Telekom Malaysia Revenue Composition (MYRmn), 2007

Table: Telekom Malaysia Domestic Capital Expenditure (MYRmn), 2007

Internet & Broadband

Table: Telekom Malaysia Customer Base - Fixed & Internet Services, Q407

Table: Telekom Malaysia Fixed & Internet Services ARPU (MYR) - Q407

Mobile Operator Data

Celcom

Maxis Communications

DiGi

Macroeconomic Forecast

Table: Malaysia Economic Activity

Regulatory Environment

Malaysia: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities

Industry Developments

Company Monitor - Nokia

Table: Global Mobile Handset Market v. Nokia Mobile Handset Market By Geography (mn units)

Table: India And China Dominate Sales Top Ten Nokia Net Sales Markets

Table: Nokia And NSN: Major Contracts And Milestones

Selected Profiles - Operators

Telekom Malaysia

Maxis Communications

Celcom

DiGi Telecommunications

Competitive Landscape

Competitor Analysis

Table: Key Players - Malaysia Telecoms Sector

Table: Sales Data - Selected Operators Financial Indicators

Key Players

Fixed Line

Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview

Mobile

Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview

Broadband

Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview

Table: Glossary Of Terms

BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Telecommunications Industry

Sources