发布时间：2008.8

摘要

Countries covered: Vietnam

Two import tariff hikes on completely built vehicles in Vietnam within the first four months of 2008 -following four cuts during the previous year - are distorting the natural progression of the automotivemarket, according to BMI’s recently published Vietnam Automotives Report. Introduced to cope withboth an influx of new vehicles on the road and the country’s soaring trade deficit, the rate increasesresulted in a drop of 1,000 imported units between April and May. However, as April was a recordmonth, possibly based on pre-emptive purchases before the second wave of new rates were imposed, it isdifficult to say definitively that the drop was due to increased tariffs.

The domestic industry continues to gather pace, however. While sales of Vietnamese-built vehicles roseby 162% in the year to May 2008, production is also being buoyed by major investment projects such asthat by Ford to expand its local production plant. The US$10mn expansion project will take the annualproduction capacity of the Haiduong facility to 9,500 units. The project will also create 130 new jobs atthe plant, which produces the Ford Mondeo and Focus sedans, the Everest and Escape SUVs, the Rangerpick-up and the Transit van. Ford ASEAN President David Alden described the project as underliningVietnam’s significance in Ford’s strategy for Asia Pacific and Africa. Indeed, Ford Vietnam’s sales roseto a record 5,975 units in 2007 and this was followed by another record in Q108, when the companyachieved its highest Q1 sales of more than 2,200 units.

Despite its attractiveness to international carmakers such as Ford, Vietnam ranks 10th in BMI’s BusinessEnvironment Ratings for the automotive industry in Asia Pacific with a score of 48 from a possible 100.The country has received low marks for its bureaucracy and legal framework, but its production and salesgrowth potential, along with low labour costs score highly. The high score for Vietnam’s competitivelandscape reflects its new liberation, while the regulatory environment also scores highly, thanks to newenvironmentally-focused laws to remove old trucks from the roads. Vietnam is a country we wouldexpect to see climb the ratings in future.

In the meantime, Vinamotor leads the market in the year to May 2008 with sales of 13,162 units, whileToyota took second on 10,228 units, up 60% year-on-year (y-o-y). The only decline in sales came fromVMC, representing BMW, Mazda and Kia, with a 36% drop. However, premium brands such as BMWand Mercedes, which posted growth of 35%, should benefit further as the year goes on from the higherimport tariffs that will price high-end cars at the same or lower level as imported standard brands, makingthem a viable alternative for consumers.

目录及图表

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Vietnam Auto Industry SWOT

Vietnam Economic SWOT

Vietnam Business Environment SWOT

Business Environment Ranking

Table: Business Environment Ratings - Autos Industry Asia Pacific

Industry Forecast Sce16

Production And Sales

Table: Vietnam Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts

Trade

Table: Vietnam Auto Forecasts

Economic Contribution

Table: Vietnam Auto Forecasts

Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Vietnam - Economic Activity

Competitive Landscape

Market Overview

Competitive Landscape

Table: New Vehicle Sales By VAMA Members 2007 (CBUs

Year-to-Date

Commercial Vehicles

Table: Vietnam Commercial Vehicle Sales

Company Monitor

Honda Asia Pacific Regional Overview

Table: Honda Investments In Asia Pacific

Table: Honda Asia Pacific Sales By Country 2007

Company Profiles

Toyota

Vidamco (GM Daewoo)

Mercedes-Benz Vietnam (MBV)

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources