发布时间：2008.8

摘要

Countries covered: Germany

The German auto industry has been a victim of the CO2 emission debate for quite sometime now,especially with France. However as BMI examines in its newly published Q308 Germany Auto Report, amajor breakthrough was achieved when Europe’s two major auto markets reached a deal to support theEuropean Commission (EC)’s goal of cutting average carbon dioxide emissions to 120g/km for new carsby 2012. For Germany - which has been struggling due to its luxury car dominated industry - the dealcomes with provisions for a flexible transition to make it easier for carmakers to adapt to the newemission norms.

In 2008, increased risk in the financial markets, tighter credit and negative expectations about the eurocontinue to hurt consumer spending. Germany sold 1.05mn cars by the end of April 2008, which is 7%higher year-on-year (y-o-y). Though figures indicate an increase over the 2007 sales, BMI believes 2007sales were themselves at vey low levels, owing to the introduction of a new higher rate of value-added taxon January 1 2007.

BMI is cautious about the future development of Germany’s car market, particularly given that thecurrent operating problems in Western Europe are set to continue in 2008. We maintain our earlierforecasts of sales remaining lower by almost 5% in 2008. Overall production is expected to be higher at6.3mn units, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles, with a major boost coming fromcommercial vehicle output which is expected to increase by almost 6.5% by the end of 2008.

In industry developments, the legal battle between the state of Lower Saxony’s blocking minority stake inVolkswagen (VW) and Porsche has somewhat cooled down as Porsche increased its stake in VW from31% to 35%. This temporarily suspends the EC’s verdict on the takeover issue and for Porsche, the bidallows it to extend its influence in the much-anticipated merger between MAN and Scania.

Increased demand for cars with lower carbon dioxide emissions helped German carmakers like VW,BMW and Daimler make a gain of almost 22%. VW led the market selling 206,819 units, up 19.6% bythe end of April 2008. The second and the third highest players in the market were Mercedes and Opelselling 115,685 (up 11%) and 93,292 (up 8.9%) vehicles respectively.

The industry also saw some noteworthy improvements in the hybrid technology with the announcementof a joint venture between Audi and Sanyo to develop a pilot hybrid project for the Volkswagen Group.German supplier ZF Friedrichshafen AG has also recently opened its new facility for volumeproduction of hybrid modules in Schweinfurt, Germany. The new mass production unit is the first of itskind for hybrid drive modules in Europe and will start volume production by Q408.

目录及图表

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Germany Autos SWOT

Germany Economic SWOT

Industry Developments - Europe

Table: National Allocation Plans For 2008 to 2012

Europe Battles For Hybrid

Tougher Safety Norms Soon

Vehicle Manufacturers Start To Tackle Carbon Emissions

Table: European Vehicle Manufacturers, Technologies For Reducing CO2

SMEs affected by REACH

Table: Key Elements Of REACH

Market Overview

Historical Background

New Investment

Industry Developments

Company News

Suppliers

Industry Forecast Scenario

Production And Sales

Table: German Automotive Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts

Trade

Table: German Automotive Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts

Table: German Auto Export Markets, 2007 (CBUs)

Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Competitive Landscape

Table: Top 10 Players German New Car Market, January-April 2008

Suppliers

Company Monitor

The Volkswagen Group

BMW

Mercedes-Benz

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources