发布时间：2008.8

摘要

Countries covered: Caribbean

Q108 Performance Patchy

Although only 13 Caribbean countries have yet reported figures for Q108, these indicate that performancewas mixed in the first quarter. Four countries reported declines in tourist arrivals, with the othersdisplaying a range of growth rate. Overall, the range was from a decline of 5.7% y-o-y in Montserrat to animpressive growth of 43.9% y-o-y in Curacao. Those countries that experienced declines were Belize,with 0.9%, Bermuda with 4.9%, and Martinique with 2.3%. Those that experienced tourist arrival growthwere Antigua and Barbuda (16.8%), the Cayman Islands (9.0%), Cuba (15.7%), the Dominican Republic(5.6%), Jamaica (13.3%), Puerto Rico (0.9%), St Lucia (17.1%) and the US Virgin Islands (9.1%).

It is noticeable that most of those countries experiencing high growth rates were those reporting figuresfor January to March, rather than just for January to February. This indicates that the region received asignificant arrivals boost over the Easter holiday period, which fell in March this year. We expect othercountries to report similar increases in March tourist arrivals. However, we remain cautious aboutprospects for the region in 2008, owing to slow economic growth in the US and surging fuel pricespushing up flight expenses. As such, we expect moderate growth in 2008, forecasting arrivals to total 25.1million.

Focus On the Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is one of the most popular tourist destinations in the Caribbean. It is popularboth as a cruise destination and for longer visits, and provides a variety of holiday packages designed toappeal to tourists from North America and Europe. Along with the rest of the Caribbean, the DominicanRepublic is set to experience below average tourist industry growth in 2008, as slowing global growthweighs on tourism potential. However, we believe that the Dominican Republic is well-positioned to rideout this temporary slowdown, given its well-established tourist industry and a good balance betweenhigh-end tourists and local and backpacker visitors.

Cruise Sector Performs Strongly

Final 2007 figures released by the Caribbean Tourist Organisation (CTO) indicated that the cruiseindustry performed well in 2007. Some countries experienced sharp increases in cruise passenger arrivals,such as Antigua and Barbuda (42.7%), the British Virgin Islands (29.6%), St Lucia (69.7%) and StVincent and the Grenadines (50.9%). In part this was due to the launch of new cruises, particularly byRoyal Caribbean, but also reflected cruise bookings related to the Cricket World Cup, for which somecompanies laid on special cruises, revolving around the host nations. We expect cruise performance toremain strong in 2008, to some extent compensating for a decline in flight arrivals. This is since touristsfrom nearby North and Central America may choose cruise tours rather than paying for expensive flightsto holidays in other parts of the world.

目录及图表

Executive Summary

Market Overview

Tourism Outlook

Table: Caribbean Tourism Industry - Historical Data And Forecasts (US$bn unless otherwise stated)

Table: Tourist Stop-Over Arrivals, 2008

Table: Tourist Stop-Over Arrivals, 2007

The WHTI On Caribbean Tourism

Caribbean Tourism Industry SWOT

Cricket World Cup 2007

Focus On The Dominican Republic

Travel

Commercial Airlines

Hospitality

Cruise Industry

Table: Cruise Passenger Arrivals, 2007 And 2006

Accommodation

Table: Caribbean - Accommodation Sector

Table: Hotels In The Caribbean By Country, 2006

Luxury Hotels

Company Profiles

Air Jamaica

Royal Caribbean Cruises

Sol Melia

BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Tourism Industry

Sources