发布时间：2008.8

摘要

Countries covered: China

Despite the first signs of a deceleration in China’s vehicle sales growth, BMI has retained its forecast forsales of over 10mn units in 2008, in its recently published China Automotives Report. Following growthof 21% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q108, sales growth for the month of April slowed to 14%, largely due torising inflation which kept growth in the passenger car market down to 10%. However, the commercialvehicle segment remains robust, recording growth of 21% in April. BMI believes this pattern will besufficient to ensure that our forecast for an overall growth of around 15% for the year is met.

If anything, it is surprising that the double-digit growth has been maintained for so long in China’sautomotive industry, given the rapid nature of its growth, which had threatened to create a bubble-burstscenario. However, the country’s thriving export market, which BMI anticipates will grow by 30% in2008, has eased the pressure on carmakers to transfer their output onto the domestic market. Indeed,China continues to attract new investment for company production facilities, with Toyota announcingplans to open a new assembly line in order to raise its local capacity. Both the government and BMIexpect vehicle exports to top 1mn units per annum by 2010, fed by this continued growth in output.

The attraction of China to car manufacturers is supported by its first place in BMI’s BusinessEnvironment Rating for the automotive industry in Asia Pacific, with a score of 66.9 out of a possible100. Increased investment and expansion mean that the market scores highly for its output growthpotential for the duration of BMI’s forecast period to 2012. The total score is brought down by China’srating for its country structure, with low marks for bureaucracy and the legal framework, but low labourcosts coupled with high marks for long-term economic and political stability should still act as a drawcard for investors.

For those already present, the ongoing fight for leadership of the Chinese market between the jointventures of Volkswagen and General Motors (GM), saw the US firm take the advantage in the year toApril. The combined sales of SAIC-GM-Wuling and Shanghai GM reached 385,236 units, while totalsales for FAW Volkswagen and Shanghai VW stood at 381,832 units. GM claimed the lead of theoverall market in 2007, as sales for the US firm rose by 19% to 1.03mn units, marking the first time that aforeign company has sold more than 1mn vehicles in China in one year. The growth of GM China hasbeen relatively rapid, with sales of 100,000 units per year first achieved in 2002, and the 500,000 per yearmark surpassed in 2005.

目录及图表

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

China Autos Industry SWOT

China Economic SWOT

China Business Environment SWOT

Business Environment Ranking

Table: Business Environment Ratings - Autos Industry Asia Pacific

Production And Sales

Table: China Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecast

Trade

Table: China Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecast

Economic Contribution

Table: China Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecast

Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: China - Economic Activity

Competitive Landscape

Market Overview

Table: China Passenger Vehicle Production, Jan-Nov 2007

Passenger Car Segment

Table: China Passenger Vehicle Sales Jan-Nov 2007

Year-To-Date

Table: China Vehicle Production Jan-May 2008

Table: China Passenger Car Sales Jan-April 2008

Technology

Manufacturer Developments

Premium Segment

US Imports…

…and Exports

Commercial Segment

Table: China Commercial Vehicle Market (CBUs)

Table: Key Players Commercial Vehicle Market 2007

Table: China Commercial Vehicle Market Production (CBUs)

Commercial Segment Developments

Suppliers

Company Monitor

Honda Asia Pacific Regional Overview

Table: Honda Investments In Asia Pacific

Table: Honda Asia Pacific Sales By Country 2007

Company Profiles

Shanghai GM

Volkswagen

Ford

Daimler

Simulating A ‘Deep’ US Recession

USA

WORLD

EUROZONE

CHINA

ASIA EX-JAPAN

MEXICO

AFRICA

Asia Pacific Automotives Recession Scenario

Table: Cumulative Difference In Vehicle Sales (US$bn) In US Recession Scenario By Market

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources