发布时间：2008.8

摘要

Countries covered: Egypt

Tourism Overview

Last year witnessed the strongest growth rate in foreign tourist arrivals to Egypt since 2004, buoyed bythe strength of economic growth in key source markets and the weakness of the Egyptian pound againstthe euro. Strong growth in arrivals was also attributed to successful marketing campaigns and thedevelopment of new tourism products. European visitors accounted for the majority of arrivals, with therelative importance of the region increasing to 74% (of the total) from 69% in the previous year. This waslargely due to a surge in arrivals from Eastern Europe, particularly from Russia, Poland and Ukraine. Inrespect of Asia, the number of visitors from India and China were also up sharply year-on-year (y-o-y).

Bird Flu Update

This quarter, there was a further increase in the number of deaths and the number of cases of humaninfection from the H5N1 bird flu virus in Egypt. The total number of human deaths from bird flu in thecountry is now 22 out of a total of 50 known human infections (up from 19 and 43 respectively in theprevious quarter).

Forecast Scenario

We remain comfortable with our outlook for economic growth of 6.7% this year, and a gradual slowdownthereafter. The pace of reform is slowing, and the global investment climate is not what it was.BMI maintains its forecast that the growth in foreign tourist arrivals will slow in the short term, largelydue to weaker economic conditions in key source markets, particularly the eurozone and the UK (ourforecast growth rates for the UK economy and the eurozone remain unchanged this quarter). Moreover,the forecast strength of the Egyptian pound could erode some of the country’s competitiveness as a touristdestination. Indeed, we see the Egyptian pound appreciating to EGP7.54/EUR (EGP5.20/US$) by the endof this year, from around EGP5.36/US$ at the time of writing, before continuing its gradual ascent to endthe forecast period in 2012 at around EGP5.89/EUR (EGP4.60/US$). Indeed, at the current rate, the unitcould reach our end-year target ahead of schedule, causing us to revise upwards our 2008 projection.

Mövenpick

Following the launch of two luxury cruisers at the end of 2007 and the announcement in January this yearof two hotel projects in Sharm El Sheikh, Mövenpick Hotels & Resorts continues its expansionprogramme in Egypt. In February 2008, the company opened a restored five-star hotel in Aswan and isdue to open its fifth hotel on the Red Sea coast of Egypt in June 2008.

目录及图表

Executive Summary

Egypt Tourism Industry SWOT

Egypt Political SWOT

Egypt Economic SWOT

Egypt Business Environment SWOT

Market Overview

Tourism Outlook

Table: Egypt’s Travel Industry - Historical Data And For

Table: Egypt’s Tourism Industry - Historical Data And Forecasts

Tourism Business Environment Ratings

Table: Middle East And Africa Tourism Business Environment Ratings

Forecast Scenario

Political Outlook

Table: Egypt - Economic Activity

Travel

Airports

Commercial Airlines

Table: Key Players - Commercial Airlines, 2006

Hospitality

Table: Egypt’s Hospitality Market Structure, 2003-2007

Accommodation

Companies Present

Accommodation Developments

Tourist Infrastructure

Special Report: Tourism And Terrorism

H5N1 Virus (Update): Crisis For Egypt?

Regional Case Study - Accor

Key Statistics

Table: Accor Hotel Business In Selected Middle East And Africa Countries, At September 2007

Company Profiles

EgyptAir SWOT

Travco

Egyptian General Organisation For Tourism And Hotels (EGOTH)

BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Tourism Industry

Tourism Ratings - Methodology

Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators

Table: Weighting of Components

Sources