发布时间：2008.2

摘要

The Internet was built over the years by “assembling” networks run by various operators. Interconnection nodes, also called GIX (Global Internet eXchanges), perform traffic exchanges between these various networks. These exchanges are most often done through peering agreements, which are symmetrical and free.

Usage has changed greatly and, just like other communication technologies, no one ever imagined the Internet’s success, with P2P exchanges, blogs, video content sites like YouTube, etc.

The emergence of new uses, the increase in content, the success of some applications progressively puts into question the role played by a handful of players and agreements governing traffic exchanges, which have become asymmetrical. In particular, operators feel that other types of players are now taking advantage of a network in which they never invested. In addition, the changes required to provide increasingly better performance are costly, and the potential for changes in usage portend even greater investment in infrastructure. In the eyes of operators, the question of sharing the costs has become essential.

The objective of this study is to identify the actual risk of Internet network saturation. What is the outlook for Internet traffic changes and what are the consequences on infrastructure? What players will be the most involved? This report presents the strategic options that could be implemented by operators. 
 
Network Saturation in brief

• Condition of telecommunications network infrastructure: access, transport, interconnection
• Changes in usage and internet traffic and capacity growth needs
• Network congestion risk analysis
• Network development versus content development: what level of investment?
• Operators’ strategy: “pure player” model or diversification policy

Key Questions
 
• What bandwidth for what types of consumer applications?
• Who will benefit from Internet traffic changes in the data transmission market?
• Is CDN the best solution for increasing video flow?
• How can congestion risk be avoided at the interconnection nodes?
• Are new negotiations on peering agreements inevitable?
• Will technical changes compensate for network saturation risks?
• Who should pay for the cost of additional Internet traffic?
• Will network infrastructure investment allow for monetizing content?

Who should read this report?
 
Telecom Operators
• Identify the impact of network infrastructure congestion on the operator model
• Analyse the consequences of a diversification policy towards content distribution
• Understand the remaining room to manoeuvre in terms of investment

Content providers
• Analyse the implications of rate setting by network operators on traffic
• Understand the impact of operator diversification on CDN
 
Technical solution providers (hosting, collocation, etc.)
• Understand changes in the needs of network operators
• Anticipate new commercial outlets

Investors and analysts
• Understand players' positioning in the value chain and their level of future investment
• Anticipate the next moves in the telecom network ecosystem

目录及图表

1 - Players involved
1.1 Value chain
1.2 Categories of players and market trends
• Data transport players
- Access
- Metropolitan Area Networks
- National/regional transport
- International transport
- Submarine cable operators
• Interconnection players
- Collocation providers
- Global Internet eXchanges (GIX)
- Service platform hosts
• Content broadcasting optimisation
• Main players by service category

2 - Headed for network saturation?
2.1 Change in usage
• P2P
• On-line gaming
• On-line video
• Other applications
2.2 Effect on networks?
• Impact of usages on Internet traffic
• Physical saturation more likely at the network node
• Technical progress to compensate for saturation risks
• Issues for various players in the value chain

3 - Impact on current models
3.1 Migration of transport network value and broadcasting to distributed content

3.2 Telecom operators positioning options
• Refocus on operator's core business
• Vertical integration targeting publishing content and services
• Diversification and expansion into the CDN business…
• …and capturing control of distribution and revenue sharing 

3.3 Conclusions