摘要
The future of the UAE's nascent petrochemical sector is bright, with Abu Dhabi on course to become a major regional petrochemicals producer according to BMI's latest UAE Petrochemicals Report.
The UAE's petrochemical developments are concentrated in Abu Dhabi, which hosts most of the olefins and polymer production capacity with Borouge dominating the sector. Borouge is planning a new petrochemical complex to be located at Ruwais, with new facilities coming onstream by 2012. The expansion project would complement the Borouge 2 polymer project, which is due for completion in 2010. The project will raise production capacity from the current 600,000tpa to 2mn tpa of enhanced polyolefins. Borouge 2 is a multi-billion dollar project – one of the largest petrochemical projects in the Middle East. If all these projects are realised, Ruwais would become one of the largest plastics and chemical production complexes in the world.
BMI has revised its method of risk scoring in the petrochemicals sector, introducing dynamic scores that reflect on future growth as well as current capacities and the size of the internal market, along with investment risk assessments of the political, economic and regulatory environments. The UAE petrochemicals industry business environment is fairly attractive in regional terms due to abundant, cheaply extractable feedstock supplies, a low risk business environment in general, and the fact that it is well placed geographically to export to Asia. However, a narrow production portfolio and current low production capacity relative to potential feedstock are primary reasons for a constrained growth. In BMI's Middle Eastern Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings matrix, the UAE has retained its fourth place ranking, lagging behind Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar. In terms of its overall score, the UAE is 4.0 points ahead of Iran and 2.8 points behind Qatar.
There are a number of hurdles that the UAE will have to overcome. There are suggestions that spare volumes of gas will not be available until beyond 2012, which could limit the amount of feedstock available to Borouge. This highlights one of the chief problems the UAE's petrochemical sector will face in the next decade. The massive rise in capacity may not be accompanied by a concurrent rise in output, even with the increase in supply from Dolphin, a pipeline project supplying gas from Qatar. Ethane will become less available and petrochemical development will likely require greater dependence on heavier feedstocks such as propane, naphtha, or gasoil. The UAE is also facing rising costs in construction costs, which could impact on the profitability of the new cracker and associated downstream units. At the same time as Borouge's cracker is due to come online in 2010, growth in Asian markets is due to moderate. Nevertheless, Borouge anticipates that polyolefin demand in the Middle East and Asia is expected to grow by 6-8% per annum until 2010, and should absorb the capacity expansions.
目录及图表
Chapter 1 - Executive Summary
UAE Petrochemicals Industry SWOT
UAE Business Environment SWOT
UAE Economic SWOT
Chapter 2 - Market Overview
Table: UAE Petrochemicals Sector – Cracker Capacity Data (‘000 tpa)
Chapter 3 - UAE Petrochemicals Business Environment
Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings
Table: Middle Eastern Rankings
Country Composite Risk Rating
Domestic Feedstock Availability
Petrochemicals Production
Petrochemicals Competitive Environment
Chapter 4 - Industry Trends and Developments
Related Industries – Developments
Chapter 5 - Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: UAE Petrochemicals Sector – Data And Forecasts
Chapter 6 - Economic Outlook
Limited Damage
Table: Macroeconomic Data & Forecasts
Domestic Politics – Minimal Risk
Business Environment Outlook
Foreign Direct Investment
Chapter 7 - Company Profiles
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc)
Abu Dhabi Polymers (Borouge)
Abu Dhabi Fertiliser Industries (Adfert)
Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Petrochemicals Industry
Cross Checks