摘要

Egypt's targets for increased domestic petrochemicals capacity look set to be missed in 2008 due to slippages in scheduling, according to BMI's latest Egypt Petrochemicals Report.

By 2008, which marks the end of the first phase of Egypt's national development programme for the petrochemicals sector, the government hopes to raise domestic capacities to 600,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) ethylene and 1.18mn tpa of polymers. However, BMI estimates that ethylene capacity will remain at 300,000tpa until 2008, after which it will double to 600,000tpa. Polyethylene (PE) capacity should rise from the current levels of 225,000tpa to 525,000tpa in 2008. However, we have raised our polypropylene (PP) capacity forecasts as a result of the planned addition of 350,000tpa of capacity at the new Egyptian Propylene and Polypropylene Co (EPPC) petrochemicals complex at Port Said. BMI expects PP capacity to rise to 820,000 by 2012.

Leveraging Egypt's petrochemicals future to its full potential still very much depends on attracting concrete multinational interest in its masterplan. Egypt's demand for plastics is massive. Some 1.2mn tonnes of petrochemicals used to manufacture plastics are consumed by the local market each year, while local production of these materials is only around 470,000tpa, meaning two-thirds has to be imported. Reducing this reliance on imported plastics is one of the main aims behind the petrochemical masterplan. Projects announced in 2007 mainly concerned the expansion of the nitrogen-based fertiliser sector, with EBIC and Agrim adding around 2.1mn tpa of ammonia and urea production capacity by 2010. Additionally, the transfer of Solvin's idle German plants to Port Said will add 160,000tpa of vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) and 180,000tpa of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) to Egypt's petrochemical output.

The announcement in November 2007 by the General Authority for Investment and Free Zones (GAFI) for foreign investment in petrochemical projects includes a US$200mn PVC plant with a capacity of 120,000tpa and a US$150mn polystyrene (PS) plant with a capacity of 200,000tpa. Even if these plans do attract the necessary foreign investment, BMI does not envisage them coming onstream before 2012. In the new Middle Eastern Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings matrix, Egypt is ranked eighth, down from sixth place in previous rankings, with 48.8 points, compared to the regional average of 56.3 points. The country is 0.7 points ahead of Turkey, but 5.6 points behind South Africa. The Egyptian petrochemicals sector represents about 12% of total industrial production and is worth around US$7bn, or just 3% of total GDP. The business environment is obviously not as strong as Middle Eastern rivals, such as Saudi Arabia with its access to large quantities of cheap feedstock, well-developed existing capacity and the ability to attract foreign investment. However, it ranks above Algeria and Turkey because of higher production and a significantly better national (as opposed to sector-specific) business environment. This ranking should improve by the end of the decade as the government's ambitious petrochemical industry development plan progresses.

目录及图表

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Egypt Petrochemicals Industry SWOT

Egypt Business Environment SWOT

Egypt Political SWOT

Chapter 3 - Market Overview

Egypt Petrochemicals Business Environment

Table: Middle East Rankings

Country Composite Risk Rating

Domestic Feedstock Availability

Petrochemicals Production

Petrochemicals Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 - Industry Trends and Developments

Investment Opportunities

Projects & News

Chapter 5 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Egypt Petrochemicals Sector Forecasts

Chapter 6 - Economic Outlook

Table: Economic Indicators

Business Environment Outlook

Chapter 7 - Company Monitor

Profiles

Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company (E-Chem)

Sidi Krir Petrochemicals (Sidpec)

Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Petrochemicals Industry

Cross Checks