发布时间：2008.6
摘要
The development of TD-SCDMA will remain in its infancy throughout 2008, with the total number of subscribers reaching 600,000. In 2009, following a possible network expansion to tier-two and tier-three cities, the number of TD-SCDMA subscribers will explode to 4.3 million and in 2010 to 15.7 million. By then, China Mobile will be focusing on HSDPA/EDGE instead of just on TD/GSM dual-mode. The capex on TD-SCDMA is estimated to peak at US$5.3 billion by late 2008 or the beginning of 2009.
Our company believes that the market will move in TD-SCDMA's favor in 2009, and that 2009 will be the turning point for TD-SCDMA's growth rate, which will reach 617%. However, the number of subscribers will not pass 10 million until 2010.
目录及图表
• Executive Summary
• Introduction
o Overview of China’s 3G Market
• Restructuring Beneficial in the Long Run Only
o Telecom Restructuring
o Awarding 3G Licenses
o Conclusions
• TD-SCDMA Not Ready for Large-Scale Commercialization
o TD-SCDMA Market Update
o TD-SCDMA Terminal Models
o Dual-Mode Compared to EDGE-Only Handsets
o Video-Phone Performance
o MBMS a Year From Commercialization
o HSDPA Not Usable on Current Handsets
o Conclusions
• Operators Not Actively Promoting Until End of 2008
o Technical Evolution
o Operator Strategy Analysis
• TD-SCDMA Market Forecast
o TD-SCDMA Trends
o Market Forecasts
• Methodology
• Related In-Stat Reports
List of Figures
• Figure 1. TD-SCDMA Subscriber Forecast (in Millions)
• Figure 2. TD-SCDMA Handset Subscriber Forecast (in Millions)
• Figure 3. TD-SCDMA Data Card Subscriber Forecast (in Millions)
• Figure 4. TD-SCDMA Network Equipment Capex Forecast (US$ in Billions)
• Figure 5. Process of Telecom Restructuring
• Figure 6. TD-SCDMA Terminal Market Share in First-Round of Bidding
• Figure 7. TD-SCDMA Subscriber Forecast (in Millions)
• Figure 8. TD-SCDMA Handset Subscriber Forecast (in Millions)
• Figure 9. TD-SCDMA Data Card Subscriber Forecast (in Millions)
• Figure 10. TD-SCDMA Network Equipment Capex Forecast (US$ in Billions)