发布时间：2008.9

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摘要

RNCOS has released its new research report - “South African Banking Sector Analysis” – that details on the fast growing banking industry of South Africa. The South African banking industry is experiencing significant growth, especially in terms of banking assets. During 2003-2006, asset growth recorded in the South African banking industry was higher than that witnessed in the global banking industry. The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of the industry also increased from 12.3% in December 2006 to 12.8% in December 2007, with banks maintaining their CARs above the minimum requirement of 10%.

This research report provides valuable year-on-year trend analysis on the growing banking industry of South Africa, and products and services offered by it. It’s a thorough study on the structure of the industry and gives a comprehensive overview on the driving and restraining forces operating in the industry.

Key Findings of the Report

§ Banks deposits in South Africa are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of about 9% during 2008-2012.
§ Banks loans are projected to expand at a CAGR of 10.16% during 2008-2012.
§ Mortgage loans, and overdrafts and loans represented the largest portions of loans and advances, amounting to 40% and 22.5% respectively at the end of December 2007.
§ The number of credit card transactions increased at a CAGR of 12.3% between 2002 and 2007.
§ Net interest income of South African banks is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 6.2% during 2008-2012.

Key Issues & Facts Analyzed in the Report

§ Market analysis of different product segments in the South African banking industry.
§ Evaluation of present and future market trends.
§ Study of factors pushing the banking industry toward growth.
§ Analysis of challenges and growth prospects for the industry.
§ Competitive landscape of the industry.

Key Players Discussed in the Report

This section provides overview and key financials of prominent domestic and foreign players like ABSA Group Limited, Investec Limited, FirstRand Limited, Citibank N.A., Deutsche Bank AG, and State Bank of India, operating in the South African banking industry.

Research Methodology Used in the Report

Information Sources
Information has been sourced from various credible sources like books, newspapers, trade journals, white papers, industry portals, government agencies, trade associations, monitoring industry news and developments, and through access to more than 3000 paid databases.

Analysis Methods
RNCOS industry forecast and analysis is based on various macro- and microeconomic factors, sector and industry specific databases, and our in-house statistical and analytical model. This model takes into account the past and current trends in an economy, and more specifically in an industry, to bring out an objective market analysis.

Our industry experts study the relationship between various industry and economic variables to ensure the required accuracy and desired check on the quality of data and information given in the report.

目录及图表

1. Analyst View
2. South Africa - A Lucrative Banking Destination
     2.1 Economic Development
     2.2 Bankable Households
     2.3 Employment
     2.4 Black Middle Class Population
     2.5 FSC & Mzansi Accounts
     2.6 FDI Inflows
     2.7 Leasing Finance & Corporate Credit
     2.8 Mortgage Loans
3. South Africa Banking - An Overview
4. Key Performance Indicators
     4.1 Bank Assets
     4.2 Bank Loans
            4.2.1 Mortgage Loans
            4.2.2 Foreign Loans
            4.2.3 Installment Debtors
            4.2.4 Overdrafts & Loans
            4.2.5 Resale Agreements
            4.2.6 Credit Card Debtors
     4.3 Bank Deposits
            4.3.1 Residents
            4.3.2 Non-residents
     4.4 Bank Profitability & Investment Strategy
     4.5 Payment Instruments
            4.5.1 Credit Card
            4.5.2 ATMs
            4.5.3 Cheque
5. Key Regulatory Developments
6. Industry Analysis
     6.1 Risk Factors
     6.2 Trend Analysis
     6.3 Growth Prospects
            6.3.1 Partnership with Fuel Stakeholders
            6.3.2 Private Banking
            6.3.3 Card-less ATMs
            6.3.4 Automotive Industry
            6.3.5 Consumer Durable Market
            6.3.6 Financial Cards
            6.3.7 Internet Banking
            6.3.8 Mobile Banking
     6.4 Growth Hurdles
            6.4.1 Increasing NPLs
            6.4.2 Broader Access to Banking Facilities
            6.4.3 Declining Affordability of Housing Loans
            6.4.4 Concentrated Banking System
            6.4.5 Declining Population
7. Future Outlook (2008-2012)
8. Key Players
     8.1 Domestic Players
            8.1.1 ABSA Group Limited
            8.1.2 Standard Bank Group Limited
            8.1.3 FirstRand Limited
            8.1.4 Nedbank Group Limited
            8.1.5 Investec Limited
     8.2 Foreign Players
            8.2.1 Citibank N.A.
            8.2.2 Deutsche Bank AG
            8.2.3 ABN AMRO Holding N.V.
            8.2.4 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
            8.2.5 State Bank of India

List of Figures:

Figure 2-1: South Africa - Forecast for Nominal GDP (in Billion US$), 2007*-2011
Figure 2-2: South Africa - Forecast for Number of Bankable Households* (in ‘000), 2009-2012
Figure 2-3: South Africa - Employment (in Million), 2003-2006
Figure 2-4: South Africa - Per Head Disposable Income (in US$), 2002-2007E
Figure 2-5: South Africa - Bank Accounts Penetration* (%), 2006 & 2007
Figure 2-6: South Africa - Growth in Mortgage Loans (%), 2003-2007
Figure 4-1: South Africa - Bank Assets (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
Figure 4-2: South Africa - Breakup of Bank Assets (%), 2007
Figure 4-3: South Africa - Bank Loans & Advances* (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
Figure 4-4: South Africa - Breakup of Bank Loans & Advances (%), 2007
Figure 4-5: South Africa - Mortgage Advances (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
Figure 4-6: South Africa - Share of Mortgage Loans by Major Banks (%), 2006 & 2007
Figure 4-7: South Africa - Foreign Currency Loans & Advances (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
Figure 4-8: South Africa - Installment Debtors* (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
Figure 4-9: South Africa - Share of Installment Finance by Major Banks (%), 2006 & 2007
Figure 4-10: South Africa - Overdrafts & Loans (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
Figure 4-11: South Africa - Share of Overdrafts & Other Loans by Major Banks (%), 2006 & 2007
Figure 4-12: South Africa - Loans under Resale Agreements (in Billion ZAR), 2004-2007
Figure 4-13: South Africa - Credit Card Debtors (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
Figure 4-14: South Africa - Deposits with Banks* (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
Figure 4-15: South Africa - Deposits with Banks by Residents (in Billion ZAR), 2003-2007
Figure 4-16: South Africa - Deposits with Banks by Non-residents (in Billion ZAR), 2003-2007
Figure 4-17: South Africa - Income of Banks (in Billion ZAR), 2005-2007
Figure 4-18: South Africa - Net Income of Banks (in Billion ZAR), 2005-2007
Figure 4-19: South Africa - Growth in Interest Income of Banks (%), 2006 & 2007
Figure 4-20: South Africa - Investment by Banks (in Billion ZAR), 2005-2007
Figure 4-21: South Africa - Investment Portfolio of Banks (%), 2007
Figure 4-22: South Africa - Share of Credit Cards by Major Banks (%), 2006 & 2007
Figure 4-23: South Africa - Number of Credit Card Transactions (in Million), 2002-2007
Figure 4-24: South Africa - Credit Cards Transactions (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
Figure 4-25: South Africa - Number of ATMs* (May 2007 & 2010F)
Figure 4-26: South Africa - Number of Cheque Transactions* (in Million), 2002-2007
Figure 4-27: South Africa - Cheque Transactions* (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
Figure 6-1: South Africa - Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (%), 2002-2007
Figure 6-2: South Africa - Investment-to-Deposit Ratio (%), 2002-2007
Figure 6-3: South Africa - Loan-to-Asset Ratio (%), 2002-2007
Figure 6-4: South Africa - Capital Adequacy Ratio (%), 2005-2007
Figure 6-5: Africa & World - Growth in High-net-worth Population (%), 2007
Figure 6-6: South Africa - Wealthy Women Population (in ‘000), 2006 & 2011F
Figure 6-7: South Africa - Forecast for New Passenger Car Registration (in ‘000 Units), 2008-2012
Figure 6-8: South Africa - Forecast for TV Set, Refrigerator & Washing Machine Sales (in ‘000 Units), 2008-2012
Figure 6-9: South Africa - Forecast for Internet Users Penetration (%), 2008-2012
Figure 6-10: South Africa - Forecast for Mobile Subscribers (in Million), 2007*-2011
Figure 6-11: South Africa - Non-performing Loans (in Billion ZAR), 2006 & 2007
Figure 6-12: South Africa - Mortgage Affordability by Household Income (in ZAR), 2005-2007 & H1 2008
Figure 6-13: South Africa - Population Growth* (%), 2000 to 2012
Figure 7-1: South Africa - Forecast for Bank Loans* (in Billion US$), 2008-2012
Figure 7-2: South Africa - Forecast for Deposits with Banks* (in Billion US$), 2008-2012
Figure 7-3: South Africa - Forecast for Bank Assets* (in Billion US$), 2008-2012
Figure 7-4: South Africa - Forecast for Net Interest Income of Banks* (in Billion US$), 2008-2012

List of Tables:

Table 3-1: South Africa - Top Ten Domestic Banks by Assets (in Million ZAR), H1 2007
Table 3-2: South Africa - Top Ten Foreign Banks by Assets (in Million ZAR), H1 2007
Table 4-1: South Africa - Breakup of Bank Assets (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
Table 6-1: South Africa - H-Index of Banking System (2002-2007)
Table 8-1: ABSA Group Limited - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2006 & 2007
Table 8-2: Standard Bank of South Africa - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2005-2007
Table 8-3: FirstRand Limited - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2006 & 2007
Table 8-4: Nedbank Group Limited - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2005-2007
Table 8-5: Investec Limited - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2005-2007
Table 8-6: Citigroup N.A. - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2004-2006
Table 8-7: Deutsche Bank AG - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2005-2007
Table 8-8: ABN AMRO Holding N.V. - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2005-2007
Table 8-9: JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2005-2007
Table 8-10: State Bank of India - Key Financials (in Crore INR), 2006 & 2007