摘要

In newly-released Venezuela Mining Report 2007, we predict that the nation's mining industry will remain broadly unchanged in size over the next five years. We believe that the value of output will grow strongly in 2006 (thanks predominantly to higher commodity prices) to around US$3.7bn. Going forwards, though, the effects of higher production volumes – and especially of gold at Crystallex International Corporation's Las Cristinas project – should be offset by softness in mineral prices. In world terms, Venezuela is a major player in the energy industry. However, it is fairly unimportant as a supplier of non-fuel minerals.

Including companies that are active in energy and construction materials, there are around 30 companies in Venezuela's mining and minerals sector. This number includes energy giant Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) and 11 of the 15 operating subsidiaries of Corporación Venezolana de Guayana (CVG). PDVSA is a state-owned monopoly. CVG, as we explain in this report, is a government agency charged with the social and economic development of much of Eastern Venezuela. In the cement industry, which – like the energy sector – falls outside the scope of this report, players include local subsidiaries of Holcim, CEMEX and Lafarge. In general, though, major multi-nationals are thin on the ground. Steel maker Sivensa is the only significant Venezuelan listed company.

Venezuela's mining/minerals sector is not important relative to exports, GDP or total employment. Venezuela is emphatically not the only country in Latin America (or, for that matter other parts of the world) where government policy and rhetoric have appeared to discourage the participation of major multi-national companies. However, it does seem that Venezuela is a country in which the government (and, perhaps, public opinion) is particularly hostile to inwards foreign investment. On top of this, it is clear that CVG and its subsidiaries are responsible primarily for meeting social, as opposed to commercial, objectives.

These themes run through many recent news stories. There are two other themes, neither of which is germane for the long-term development of the Venezuelan mining industry. Firstly, employees and community stakeholders often enjoy considerable power vis-Ã -vis employers in negotiations over pay and/or other benefits. The other is that decisions relating to the industry (whether made by the government in its own right or by one its agencies, such as CVG) appear sometimes to be driven by diplomatic/political (as opposed to economic or commercial) considerations.

目录及图表

Executive Summary

Chapter 1 - Industry Trends And Developments

Market Overview

Regulatory Structure

General

Chapter 2 - Project And Property Updates

Metals/ Minerals

Table: Operations In Venezuela

Chapter 3 - SWOT Analysis

Venezuela Political SWOT

Venezuela Economic SWOT

Venezuela Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 4 - Business Environment

Americas: Business Environment Profile

Table: Business Environment

Legal Framework

Independence Of The Judiciary

Effectiveness Of System

Property Rights

Intellectual Property Rights

Corruption/Red Tape

Labour Force

Size

Structure

Regulation

Industrial Unrest/Strikes

Foreign Investment Policy

Overview

Table: Venezuela, Annual FDI Inflows

Table: Value Of Exports By Category

FDI Regime

Political Environment

Re-election Paves Way For Revolution

The Revolution Will Not Be Televised

Ratings Update

Chapter 5 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Correction To Continue

Lower Metal Prices, But Still Historically High

Risks To Outlook

Global Overview

Regional Analysis

Venezuela Mining Industry Forecast

Table: Venezuela Mining Industry Forecast

Chapter 6 - Competitive Landscape

Table: Venezuela Mining - Key Players

Chapter 7 - Company Monitor

Corporación Venezolana de Guayana (CVG)

Hecla Mining Company

Crystallex International Corporation

Appendix A: Mining Ratings: Methodology

Introduction

Breakdown of Ratings

Breakdown Of Components

Appendix B: The World Economy

Outlook and Risks

Table: Global Assumptions

United States

Soft Landing Ahead

Risks To Outlook

Europe

Moderating, But Solid Economic Growth

Medium-Term Growth Outlook

Japan

Japan In 2007 & 2008

Japan's Medium-Term Prospects

China

China In 2007 & 2008

China's Medium-Term Prospects

Commodities

Correction To Continue

Lower Metal Prices, But Still Historically High

Risks To Outlook

Oil

Appendix C: Regional Demographic Data

Wages (ave. per annum), US$

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn