摘要

In BMI's newly-released Argentina Mining Report 2007, we expect the nation's mining industry to remain broadly unchanged in size over the next five years. We believe that the value of output will grow strongly in 2006 (thanks predominantly to higher commodity prices) to around US$4.5bn. Going forward, though, the effects of higher production volumes at existing operations, and the development of new projects, should be offset by softness in mineral prices. Argentina is one of the world's leading producers of lithium and boron. However, in a global (and often in even a Latin American) context, it is a fairly insignificant player in the markets for gold, silver, copper, base metals, iron/steel and aluminium. However, Argentina is Latin America's largest producer of natural gas, although energy falls outside the scope of this report.

Including companies that are active in energy and construction materials, there are around 50 companies in Argentina's mining and minerals sector. Almost all of the large projects are controlled by the local subsidiaries of multinationals. However, some smaller, listed, foreign companies (typically from Canada or Australia) are active in exploration and development.

Argentina's mining/minerals sector is not important relative to exports, GDP or total employment. Nevertheless, it would be reasonable to suggest that national government policies favour development of the mining industry. However, provincial governments have a significant role to play in the awarding of mining concessions and in the regulation of environmental matters. In relation to particular projects, companies have had to contend with significant opposition from local residents and/or provincial governments who have not been convinced of the benefits of local mining operations and/or who have been concerned, rightly or wrongly, about mining issues. Overall, though, it would be fair to say that the business environment in Argentina is less challenging than it is for many developing countries where major mining companies are active.

Several themes run through recent news stories. One is that demand for aluminium and steel has been helped by the strength of domestic demand in Argentina. Another is that investment – whether in new or existing projects – has been increasing significantly. A third is that political, environmental and industrial relations issues have generated headlines, but have not really served to prevent – or substantially delay – major projects. In general, operational reports for Q406 in relation to the major mining/mineral operations have been upbeat.

目录及图表

Executive Summary

Chapter 1 - Industry Trends And Developments
Market Overview

Regulatory Structure

General

Chapter 2 - Project And Property Updates
Metals

Minerals

Table: Operations In Argentina

Chapter 3 - SWOT Analysis
Argentina Political SWOT

Argentina Economic SWOT

Argentina Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 4 - Business Environment
Americas: Business Environment Profile

Table: Business Environment

Legal Framework

Independence Of The Judiciary

Effectiveness Of System

Property Rights

Intellectual Property Rights

Corruption/Red Tape

Labour Force

Size

Structure

Regulation

Industrial Unrest/Strikes

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Foreign Investment Policy

Overview

Table: Argentina, Annual Fdi Inflows

Table: Latin America: Annual Fdi Inflows

FDI Regime

Political Environment

Streamlined opposition

Table: Argentina - Cabinet List

Chapter 5 - Industry Forecast Scenario
Correction To Continue

Lower Metal Prices, But Still Historically High

Risks To Outlook

Global Industry Overview

Regional Analysis

Argentina Mining Industry Forecast

Table: Argentina Mining Industry Forecast

Chapter 6 - Competitive Landscape
Table: Argentina Mining - Key Players

Chapter 7 - Company Monitor
Minera Alumbrera YMAD UTE

Barrick Gold Corporation

Minera del Altiplano S.A.

Appendix A: Mining Ratings: Methodology

Introduction

Breakdown of Ratings

Breakdown of Components

Appendix B: The World Economy

Outlook and Risks

Table: Global Assumptions

United States

Soft Landing Ahead

Risks To Outlook

Europe

Moderating, But Solid Economic Growth

Medium-Term Growth Outlook

Japan

Japan In 2007 & 2008

Japan's Medium-Term Prospects

China

China In 2007 & 2008

China's Medium-Term Prospects

Commodities

Correction To Continue

Lower Metal Prices, But Still Historically High

Risks To Outlook

Oil

Appendix C: Regional Demographic Data

Table- Manufacturing Wages (ave. per annum), US$

Table - Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn