摘要

The most significant development in Venezuela's automotive industry in the final quarter of 2007 was the government's decision to introduce legislation aimed at cutting and controlling the number of vehicle imports entering the country. In this report we examine the likely impact this legislation will have on the future development of the market as well as gauge initial reaction from market players.

In November 2007 Venezuela's Ministry of Light Industry and Commerce, Milco, laid down legislation whereby the number of automotive imports entering the country will be strictly controlled. As from January 2008 manufacturers will only be able to import vehicles with Milco's approval and the body will assess the status of the national market before granting its decision. In accordance with the new rules, carmakers will have to submit their production and import strategies to Milco in September of every year and their application will be accepted or denied within 30 days. In order to fix the number of vehicles each carmaker may import into the country, Milco is expected to assess factors such as demand, local production plans, vehicle prices, sales records and fuel efficiency.

According to some industry insiders, car sales will fall in 2008 if imports are cut, a scenario we believe is likely in the short term. Carmakers may also see their sales targets hampered by taxes on financial transactions, as well as on luxury imports. It would certainly be unlikely that the pace of growth seen in 2007 in new car sales would be repeated in 2008. BMI has significantly raised its full-year sales forecast for 2007, due to the strong level of growth the market has experienced in that year. According to data from the Venezuelan automotive industry association, CAVENEZ, although new car sales were down by 7.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) in September 2007 to 43,336 units, they soared by 49.3% to 346,189 units year-on-year (y-o-y) during the nine-month period to September. Our new forecast for 2007 therefore stands at 420,000 units.

Beyond this, BMI is forecasting a downturn in economic growth over the forecast period that may dampen car sales. In our view, economic growth will slow in H207 due to a weakening oil sector. While BMI expects GDP growth to come in at 8.5% in 2007, our forecast is for a sharp fall to 4.2% in 2008. While it is clearly difficult to forecast sales up to 2012 at this point – in light of foreseeable government intervention – BMI expects significantly lower sales growth over the forecast period compared to levels seen in 2007, with sales of around 441,232 units in 2012.

目录及图表

Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Venezuela Auto Industry SWOT

Venezuela Economic SWOT

Venezuela Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 – Latin America Regional Overview

Table: Latin America Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs (000) unless otherwise stated)

Table: Latin America Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs (000) unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 3 – Business Environment Rankings

Economics – Long-Term Risk

Politics – Long-Term Risk

CBU Output Growth

Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential

Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Production And Sales

Table: Venezuela Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts

Table: Venezuela Sales Forecast Of Trucks And Buses By Vehicle Type

Table: Venezuela Production Forecast Of Trucks And Buses By Vehicle Type

Trade

Table: Venezuela Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts

Economic Contribution

Table: Venezuela Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Economic Activity Indicators

Country Snapshot: Venezuela Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education As % Of Age Group

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators 31

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Latin America: Automotive Focus Report On Premium Cars

Regional Overview

Table: Competitive Landscape: Regional Comparison

Table: Prospects For Growth In Latin America’s Premium Car Markets

Country Landscape: Venezuela

Market Size & Opportunities For Growth

Venezuela: Proportion Of Imports And Premium Cars Relative To Car Market, 2004-2005

Venezuela: Large Car Imports By Brand And Model, 2004-5 (000)

Table: Venezuela: Premium Car Market By Segment, 2002-2004 (000)

Customer Profile

Key Players

Table: Venezuela: Jeep Sales By Model, 2004-2005 (000)

Table: Venezuela: BMW Sales By Model, 2004-2005

Table: Venezuela: Mercedes-Benz Sales By Model, 2004-2005

SWOT Of Venezuelan Premium Car Market

Chapter 6 – Competitive Landscape

Market Overview

Table: Venezuela Auto Production 2005 (CBUs)

Industry Developments

Table: Venezuela Vehicle Sales 2005 (CBUs)

Manufacturing Strength

Table: Venezuela Vehicle Market By Segment, 2000-2005

Table: Venezuela Vehicle Production By Segment, 2000-2005

Table: Venezuela Commercial Vehicle Registrations, Domestic Production Versus Imports

Light Commercial Vehicles 48

Table: Venezuela Light Commercial Vehicle Registrations, Domestic Production Versus Imports, 2000-2005

Table: Venezuela Light Commercial Vehicle Registrations By Manufacturer 2000-2005

Table: Venezuela Light Commercial Vehicle Production By Manufacturer, 2002-2005

Table: Venezuela Light Commercial Vehicle Market Shares, 2004-2005

Heavy Commercial Vehicles

Table: Venezuela Heavy Commercial Vehicle Registrations By Manufacturer

Table: Venezuela Heavy Commercial Vehicle Registrations, Domestic Production Versus Imports, 2000-2005

Table: Venezuela Heavy Commercial Vehicle Production By Manufacturer, 2002-2005

Table: Venezuela Heavy Commercial Vehicle Market Shares, 2004-2005

Buses

Table: Venezuela Bus Registrations By Manufacturer

Table: Venezuela Bus Market Shares, 2004-2005

Chapter 7 – Company Monitor

Fiat Regional Overview

Fiat Regional Car Sales

Fiat Regional Production

Fiat Regional SWOT

Company Profiles

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources

Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Table: Wages (ave per annum), US$

Table: Population

Table: Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Table: Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP