摘要

BMI is forecasting new vehicle sales of 52,133 units in Peru this year, up by 5.0% on estimated sales of 49,650 units for 2007. Vehicle sales soared last year on the back of booming economic growth. The trend is in keeping with the strong level of growth the market enjoyed in 2006 when Peru emerged as the fastgrowing automotive market in Latin America. BMI's outlook for Peru over the forecast period up to 2012 is positive, as reflected in this report.

According to data from the Peruvian carmakers' association, ARAPER, during the period January- November 2007, new vehicle sales soared by 54.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 45,508 units. Light vehicles, including passenger cars, multipurpose vehicles and sports utility vehicles, totalled 25,048 units, to account for 55.0% of the total sales figure. The commercial vehicle market also performed well, representing 29.0% of total sales over the 11-month period.

By brands, Toyota led the market during the year to November. In line with its ambitious strategy for growth in the country, the Japanese carmaker sold 12,170 units to seize a 26.7% market share. Toyota's sales in 2007 were buoyed by the success of models such as the Corolla, Yaris and RAV4. Nissan ranked second with sales of 4,951 units, while Hyundai completed the top three with sales of 4,153 units. In fact, Asian carmakers dominated the top five, with Suzuki and Mitsubishi obtaining 8.4% and 5.8% of the market respectively.

In BMI's view, propitious economic fundamentals are fuelling growth in Peru's new vehicle market. Consumer confidence remained strong in 2007, buoyed by an improvement in disposable income, an upturn in employment and a greater availability of credit. BMI expects growth in Peru's new vehicle market this year to be stimulated by government measures to promote new, environmentally-friendly vehicles as well as a strong economic backdrop.

In December 2007 the Peruvian government approved legislation that will cut taxes on the sale of certain items, including less-polluting vehicles. The government's aim is to skew the market in favour of vehicles that run on fuels such as natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. Vehicle prices are expected to fall by as much as 20.0% as a result of the new rules. Car buyers will also be offered incentives to trade in their old vehicles as the government attempts to renew the country's car fleet.

目录及图表

Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Peru Auto Industry SWOT

Peru Economic SWOT

Peru Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 – Latin America Regional Overview

Table: Latin America Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: Latin America Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 3 – Business Environment Rankings

Table: Latin America Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-term Risk

Politics – Long-term Risk

CBU Output Growth

Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential

Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Peru Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Peru – Economic Activity

Country Snapshot: Peru Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption And Stratification

Table: Wages Per Year

Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Latin America: Automotive Focus Report On Premium Cars

Regional Overview

Table: Competitive Landscape: Regional Comparison

Table: Prospects For Growth In Latin America’s Premium Car Markets

Market Size & Opportunities For Growth

Table: Best-Selling Vehicles In Peru In 2004

Customer Profile

Key Players

SWOT Of Peruvian Premium Car Market

Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles

Table: Peru New Vehicle Sales

Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape

Market Overview

Market Structure

Table: Peru Auto Sector – Key Players January 2006

Chapter 8 – Company Monitor

GM Regional Overview

Table: General Motors Regional Car Sales

Table: General Motors Regional Production

General Motors Regional SWOT

Company Profiles

Toyota

DaimlerChrysler

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources

Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Table: Wages (ave. per annum), US$

Table: Population

Table: Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Table: Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Table: Market Size, GDP, US$bn