摘要

In its latest Thailand Petrochemicals Report, BMI forecasts a good year for the country's petrochemicals producers in 2008, but expects new challenges from 2009 as new capacity in the Middle East and China depresses world prices for petrochemical products while the price of gas feedstock will rise. BMI forecasts that global gas prices could rise by 8-10% in 2008 alone, with the prospect of 5-10% annual growth in prices over the forecast period. A rise in feedstock prices at a time of increased supply on the global petrochemicals market, particularly with the threat of over-capacity in China and the potential for price dumping to clear inventories, could hit Thai producers' profit margins.

BMI believes Thai olefins producers are productive and competitive enough to deal with the challenges ahead. In the near future, Thailand is expected to remain a net exporter of five major polymers – polyethylene (PE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) and expanded polystyrene (EPS) – despite estimates that demand growth for the products is likely to drop 1.1-1.5 times the nation's GDP during the next six years. The combined domestic consumption of the five polymers is forecast to rise to about 3.06mn tonnes in 2006, 3.6mn tonnes in 2008 and 4.6mn tonnes in 2012. It is forecast that Thailand's major polymer exports are likely to reach up to 50% of capacity by the end of the decade.

Ethylene capacity will double in 2006-12, reaching around 4.4mn tpa by the end of the forecast period. The country will have ethylene surpluses from 2009 that will be exported to the region, but the surplus will decline as polymer production rises, The investments in new olefins capacity in Thailand are part of the country's master plan to develop its petrochemical industry through 2018, which the government calls the 'third way'. Capacity expansion will be achieved through ending bottlenecks at existing plants and the creation of new ones. Map Ta Phut will be the focus of expansion efforts, with two cracker complexes due to come onstream in 2009 and 2010, adding 2.7mn tpa to olefins cracker capacity. This will stimulate derivatives production, with a number of polymer plants to be situated near the crackers. These are now set to go ahead following agreements between petrochemicals firms and the government on pollution reduction measures, although these will increase costs in the medium term.

However, some segments will struggle. PVC producer Vinythai's failure to acquire rival Apex in 2007 is a setback for the PVC segment, which requires further consolidation to become more competitive. PVC producers are highly dependent on global markets, which have seen a rapid rise in supply. PVC production amounted to around 810,000 tonnes in 2006, with domestic demand at 500,000 tonnes and exports at 310,000 tonnes.

Meanwhile, polyethylene production capacity is expanding. In December 2007, Siam Cement signed a deal with Dow Chemical to build a US$315mn linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) plant at Map Ta Phut. The plant will produce 350,000tpa of LLDPE from H110. It will be built downstream from an ethylene plant that the two companies are building at the same site. The site is also seeing investments totalling US$450mn in a 400,000tpa high density polyethylene (HDPE) unit, a 400,000tpa PP unit and the first factory in Asia equipped with hydrogen peroxide to propylene oxide technology (developed in partnership with BASF). The propylene oxide produced will be processed into propylene glycol, polyurethanes and glycol ethers. The projects are slated for completion in 2010.

目录及图表

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Industry Overview

IRPC PCL Restructuring

Industry Developments

Industry Outlook

SWOT Analysis

Thai Petrochemicals Industry SWOT

Thai Economic SWOT

Thai Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 - Market Overview

Thailand Petrochemicals Sector – Cracker Data (000 tpa)

Market Evolution

Chapter 3 - Industry Trends and Developments

IRPC PCL Restructuring

Projects and Expansions

Table: Selected Key Petrochemical Projects Overview

Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Petrochemicals Outlook

Table: Thailand Capacity/Demand Balance for PE (in 000tpa)

Table: Thailand Capacity/Demand Balance for PP (in 000tpa) (000 t/y)

Petrochemicals Forecasts

Table: Thailand Petrochemicals Sector – Historical Data and Forecasts

Chapter 5 - Economic Outlook

Table: GDP, Output & Population

Chapter 6 - Company Monitor

Profiles

PTT Public Company Ltd

PTT Chemical (PTTC)

Siam Cement/Cementhai Chemicals Company (CCC)

Shell

IRPC PCL (formerly Thai Petrochemical Industry (TPI))

Chapter 7 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Petrochemicals Industry

Cross Checks