摘要

India is set to become the world's third-largest polymer consumer within the next five years, but the country will become more reliant on imports with capacity expansion failing to keep up with domestic demand, according to BMI's latest India Petrochemical Report.

Per capita polymer consumption is at a low 4.7kg in India, 20% of the global average and just 16% of China's consumption level. With rising levels of disposable income leading to increased demand for new consumer products and an expansion in the construction industry, India has the potential to at least double domestic polymer over the next decade due to rising levels. The government is aiming for a rise in per capita polymer consumption to 12kg by 2012. BMI forecasts a rise in total polymer consumption from 5.6mn tonnes per annum (tpa) in 2007 to around 12.1mn tpa by 2012, which would mean per capita consumption of around 11kg. Polymer production is set to rise from 5.33mn tpa in 2006 to 11.1mn tpa by 2012. New investments are expected to add an additional 6.29mn tpa of polymer production capacity by 2012, leaving a deficit of 1mn tpa. Meanwhile, ethylene capacity is expected to rise by around 7.21mn tpa and aromatics production capacity is set to almost double from 3.2mn tpa to 5-6mn tpa between 2007 and 2012, providing projects go to plan. This would help double the production of basic petrochemicals. Yet, unless capacity growth is sustained, India will struggle to realise its ambition to become a regional petrochemicals production hub with globally competitive costs.

Recently announced projects indicate that India is making a concerted attempt to tackle this problem. In December 2007, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) indicated that it is considering investment in a new integrated petroleum refinery and petrochemical projects in India. KPC's refinery in India would have a capacity of 150,000-400,000 barrels per day (b/d) and the petrochemical complex is likely to include an ethylene plant with capacity for 800,000-1mn tpa, with petrochemical products exported. Meanwhile, there is fierce competition for contracts for licences for the units at Reliance Industries Ltd's (RIL) proposed US$3bn petrochemical complex in Jamnagar, Gujarat, which is scheduled for completion in 2011.

Key to the success of the Indian petrochemical industry is the development of the controversial Petroleum, Chemicals and Petrochemicals Investment Regions (PCPIRs) across the country. In August 2006, the government announced that seven areas, each of around 250km2, had been identified as sites for PCPIRs, with each requiring at least US$10bn in investment. The Karnataka government has drawn up an ambitious plan to develop a PCPIR in Dakshina Kannada and Udupi districts, including the Mangalore special economic zone (MSEZ), which is the site of the state's forthcoming petrochemical complex. The PCPIR will be established in three phases, with the first phase beginning in 2008 and completed by 2014 and the entire development completed by 2026. Andhra Pradesh (Vishakhapattanam), Gujarat (Delhej) and West Bengal (Haldia) state governments have also submitted bids for PCPIRs. However, there is growing opposition to land confiscation among the rural poor, which led to violent civil unrest in West Bengal in 2007. With the minority coalition government in a weak political position, it could find it difficult to establish PCPIRs without significant risk. However, the risk is shared with opposition parties at a state level, with the Communist-led Left Front administration in West Bengal bearing the brunt of public opposition to petrochemicals-related land confiscation and the BJP sympathetic to the creation of special economic zones. There is overall consensus among political parties in favour of the government's approach to petrochemicals development, but it will need to face up to the political risk associated with land confiscation and address the concerns of affected populations if India is to develop a dynamic sector capable of responding to domestic needs.

目录及图表

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Industry Overview

Industry Developments

Related Industry Developments

Industry Forecast

India Petrochemicals Industry SWOT

India Political SWOT

India Economic SWOT

India Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 - Market Overview

Petrochemicals

Major Players

Table: Indian Cracker Capacity (Existing)

Table: Indian Cracker Capacity (Planned)

Indian Fertiliser Industry

Chapter 3 - Industry Trends and Developments

Projects & Expansion Plans

Finance

Industry News – Related Industries

Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: India Petrochemicals Sector Data and Forecasts

Chapter 5 - Economic Outlook

Table: Macroeconomic Data and Forecasts

Chapter 6 - Business Environment Overview

Chapter 7 - Company Profiles

Reliance Industries (RIL)

Indian Oil Corporation

Gas Authority of India Ltd (GAIL)

Indian Petrochemicals Corporation Ltd (IPCL)

Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Chemicals & Petrochemicals Industry

Cross checks