摘要
The Estonian automotive market is set for a slowdown in 2008 as consumers become more cautious about making high value purchases amid tougher lending conditions and the market reaches saturation point.
In 2007, automotive sales grew 26.0% y-o-y to 38,725 units, with passenger car sales up 25.8% and commercial vehicle sales up 27.0%. However, there were signs of a downturn in sales in Q407, with December seeing the first monthly year-on-year decline in sales in 2004. This coincided with a slowdown throughout the economy, with retail sales growth in decline. Car dealerships indicated that they expected the decline to continue into 2008, while others were more optimistic and predicted a soft landing in the car market. The consensus is that car sales growth is likely to be in the region of 10%. BMI is more pessimistic, forecasting sales growth of just 9.0% in 2008 with 34,782 cars sold. We expect the economic cycle to pick up in 2010, with a concurrent rise in car sales growth. By 2012, we expect car sales to reach just under 51,800 units, a still impressive 62.3% rise in sales over 2007 levels.
The commercial vehicles segment is also witnessing a slowdown due to a combination of the overall downturn in the economy and the problems affecting road freight transportation between Russia and Estonia. BMI anticipates that Estonia's commercial vehicle market will rise by 40.8% between 2007 and 2012, which is well below the 56.8% growth expected for the Baltic region as a whole. Lower rates of growth are related to an anticipated slowdown in road freight movements caused by Russia's decision to severely restrict Estonian truck movements. BMI believes that some road haulage firms are likely to go out of business, although some consolidation is likely.
Meanwhile, foreign investment in the parts sector should help the indigenous industry to continue to grow. We anticipate growth rates for this sector of between 10-15% per annum during the forecast period, in euro terms. Sales results from the Estonian seat belt manufacturer AS Norma in 2007 show that Russian sales remain buoyant. In H107, Norma's sales amounted to EEK595mn (EUR38mn), an increase of 12% y-o-y, with sales to Russian customers rising 55% y-o-y. Estonia's position as a low-cost automotive components manufacturer was further boosted in December 2007 when Stoneridge, a manufacturer of automotive electronics, announced plans to close its UK plant in Gloucestershire and move part of its electrical switches production to its Estonian subsidiary, Stoneridge Eesti.
Toyota remains the most popular brand on the Baltic passenger car market, with a 13% market share and 11,100 vehicles sold in 2007. The second most popular was Volkswagen with 8,990 registered new cars (10%), followed by Honda with 7,300 sales (8%). Toyota has the market lead in all three Baltic states, but the strength of other brands varies from market to market with Mazda particularly strong in Estonia, for instance.
目录及图表
Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis
Estonia Auto Industry SWOT
Chapter 2 – Europe Regional Market Overview
Production
Table: European Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
Table: European Autos Production By Group, H1 2006
Table: Central and Eastern European Car Assembly Plants, 2006 (Countries under review)
Table: The Rise In Central And Eastern European Production And Average Wages
Sales
Table: Europe Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
Table: EU And EFTA Autos Sales By Group, H1 2006
Table: New Vehicle Registrations By Market In Europe (EU and EFTA), 2006
Table: New Car Registrations By Market In Europe (EU and EFTA), 2005
Competitive Landscape
Table: EU-15 And EFTA, Car Registrations, 2005
Table: Top 10 Best Selling Models In Europe, Jan-May 2006
Suppliers
Table: Top Five OEM Parts Suppliers, 2005
Regulation
Baltic Market Overview
Chapter 3 – Business Environment Rankings
Economics – Long-term Risk
Politics – Long-term Risk
CBU Output Growth
Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential
Regulation
Competitive Environment
Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Estonia Automotive Sector Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: GDP, Output & Population
Country Snapshot: Estonia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population:
Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown
Section 2: Education & Healthcare
Table: Education
Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics
Table: Healthcare: Expenditure
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators
Table: Consumption and Stratification
Table: Wages per year
Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles
Regional Market Overview
Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Sales
Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Production
Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Company Ranking Of Significant Regional Manufacturers
Table: Recent And Planned Investments In Central And Eastern Europe
Baltics Market Overview
Table: Baltic Market, 2005
Table: Size Of Commercial Vehicle Market: Estonia
Table: Size Of Commercial Vehicle Market: Latvia
Table: Size Of Commercial Vehicle Market: Lithuania
Table: Baltic Market, Forecasts: 2010
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market Forecast: Estonia
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market Forecast: Latvia
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market Forecast: Lithuania
Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape
Table: Estonia Passenger Car Sales 2004
Table: Estonia Commercial Vehicle Sales 2004
Chapter 8 – Company Monitor
Regional Case Study: Kia
Sales
Table: Kia Sales In Europe (EU and EFTA), By Model
Production
Table: Kia Production In Europe (EU, EFTA, Romania and Turkey), By Model
Company Profiles
Toyota
Inchcape (Mazda)
AS Norma
BMI Forecast Modelling
Automobile Industry
Sources
Appendix: Regional Demographic Data
Table: Wages (ave. labour force per annum), US$ PPP
Table: Population
Table: Household Spending Per Capita, US$
Table: Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP
Table: Market Size, GDP, US$bn