摘要
During the first 10 months of 2007 new car sales rose by 7.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 110,829 units, running ahead of our original full-year forecast of 118,664 units. In BMI's view, strong economic growth and household consumption have fuelled the upturn in new car sales and our outlook over the forecast period up to 2012 is increasingly optimistic.
According to data from the Czech automotive industry association, AIA, Skoda continued to lead the new car market during the first 10 months of the year. The carmaker did see its sales fall, however, by 6.0% yo- y to 40,506 units. Ford continued its run as one of the best performing brands during the year to October, with sales soaring by 64.1% against the prior-year period to 7,182 units. Other positive results among players ranked in the top 10 were reported by Kia, whose sales rose by a significant 65.0% y-o-y to 3,620 units and Opel, up by 39.8% y-o-y to 3,632 units. The other top 10 players reporting a downturn in sales for the period in addition to Skoda were Renault and Volkswagen (VW), which registered falls of 6.6% and 4.5%, respectively.
Sales of light commercial vehicles rose by 22.0% y-o-y to 47,893 units during the period January-October 2007 in line with our expectations that a significant amount of growth in the new vehicle market over the forecast period will take place in LCV sales. Skoda led the market once again, enjoying a 25.5% y-o-y increase to 11,606 units. VW's sales rose by 7.5% y-o-y to 5,170 units, while Ford saw its LCV sales rise by 6.1% to 4,822 units. BMI's revised forecast for new car sales in 2007 stands at 130,000 units. We expect sales to dip in 2008 in line with an ongoing tightening in the labour market that may squeeze nominal wages and consumer spending.
With respect to exports, data from the AIA show that during the period January-September 2007 exports of new cars and LCVs rose by a firm 11.0% y-o-y to 650,049 units. The increase comes on the back of a rise in production of these items, of 7.7% to 679,378 units. Market leader Skoda has faced increasing demand for its vehicles this year with 90% of the carmaker's output in the Czech Republic being sold outside the country. BMI has raised its 2007 forecast for exports to 800,000 units.
目录及图表
Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis
Czech Republic Auto Industry SWOT
Czech Republic Economic SWOT
Czech Republic Business Environment SWOT
Chapter 2 – Europe Regional Market Overview
Production
Table: European Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
Table: European Autos Production by Group, H1 2006
Table: Central and Eastern European Car Assembly Plants, 2006 (Countries under review)
Table: The Rise in Central and Eastern European Production and Average Wages
Sales
Table: Europe Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
Table: EU and EFTA Autos Sales by Group, H1 2006
Table: New Vehicle Registrations by Market in Europe (EU and EFTA), 2006
Table: New Car Registrations by Market in Europe (EU and EFTA), 2005
Competitive Landscape
Table: EU-15 and EFTA, Car Registrations, 2005
Table: Top 10 Best Selling Models in Europe, Jan-May 2006
Suppliers
Table: Top Five OEM Parts Suppliers, 2005
Regulation
European car prices
Table: Price of Europe’s five top-selling models by market
Chapter 3 – Business Environment Rankings
Economics – Long-Term Risk
Politics – Long-Term Risk
CBU Output Growth
Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential
Regulation
Competitive Environment
Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario
Production and Sales
Table: Czech Republic Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs, unless otherwise stated)
Trade
Table: Czech Republic Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs, unless otherwise stated)
Economic Contribution
Table: Czech Republic Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs, unless otherwise stated)
Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: Czech Republic - Economic Activity
Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles
Regional Market Overview
Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Sales
Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Production
Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Company ranking of significant regional manufacturers
Table: Recent and Planned Investments in Central and Eastern Europe
Czech Republic Commercial Vehicle Market Overview
Table: Czech Republic: Commercial Vehicle Production and Sales Trends for Czech Brands, Change y-o-y, 2005 (CBUs)
Sales
Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players – LCV New Registrations, 2005
Table: Czech Republic: Top Eight Key Players – HCV New Registrations, 2005
Table: Czech Republic Top Five Key Players – Bus Registrations, 2005
Table: Size of Commercial Vehicle Market
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market Forecast: Czech Republic
Production
Table: Production in Czech Republic
Table: Production Forecasts for Czech Republic
Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape
Table: Skoda Q1 Sales (CBUs)
Suppliers
Table: Investment by Japanese automotive parts manufacturers in the Czech Republic
Chapter 8 – Company Monitor
Regional Case Study: Kia
Sales
Table: Kia sales in Europe (EU and EFTA), by model
Production
Table: Kia production in Europe (EU, EFTA, Romania and Turkey), by model
Company Profiles
Skoda
Peugeot
Toyota
BMI Forecast Modelling
Automobile Industry
Sources