摘要

The Sector At A Glance

Key Insights On The Automotive Sector Of Croatia

Croatia's car market is one of the largest in the Balkan region and in 2006 was set to grow by 10%, according to BMI's Croatia Automotives Report. Recently-published figures show that in the first 10 months of 2006, sales were consistently higher than the same period in 2005, growing 10.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 66,354 units. Opel led sales with a 14.4% market share, followed by Renault (12.3%) and Volkswagen (9.8%). In October, Opel maintained its market-lead with a 16.2% market share, while Volkswagen was in second place with a 10.7% share of sales. Renault slipped from second to fourth place as French rival Peugeot nudged into third place with 9.5% of sales.

An explosion in consumer credit has underpinned the rise in car ownership; passenger cars have led the rise in demand for consumer durables. The macroeconomic conditions are conducive to strong autos sales growth. Household spending remained relatively subdued in the first quarter, at 4.0%, while the kuna was strong against the euro in H106. This, together with the growth of domestic credit has fuelled automotive sales growth, despite household spending falling below overall real-GDP growth. The central bank is committed to capping sharp rises in credit and spending, and we do not expect household expenditure growth to trend significantly move out of the 2-5% range in 2006.

Consequently, BMI forecasts car sales growth of 10% by the end of 2006, with sales totalling just under 76,830 units. Over the rest of the forecast period, BMI forecasts car sales growth in the region of 6.7-7.2%. Croatians are increasingly likely to travel abroad to find cheaper car deals as well as purchasing used cars. Added to this is an increase in excise-tax on cars, introduced in July 2004 in response to weakening revenue performance.

Growth in the Croatian commercial-vehicles market has fallen from around 7.0% in 2001 to 2.0% in 2005. We forecast annual growth of around 3.0% in the LCV segment in 2006-2010, while HCV sales will continue to suffer from declining demand for domestic road-freight services. The overall market will grow by around 14.3% in 2005-2010, with LCV sales rising 15.9%, HCVs falling by 2.1% and bus sales rising by 5.0%.

目录及图表

Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Croatia Auto Industry SWOT

Croatia Economic SWOT

Chapter 2 – Europe Regional Market Overview

Production

Table: European Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: European Autos Production by Group, H1 2006

Table: Central and Eastern European Car Assembly Plants, 2006 (Countries under review)

Table: The Rise in Central and Eastern European Production and Average Wages

Sales

Table: Europe Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: EU and EFTA Autos Sales by Group, H1 2006

Table: New Vehicle Registrations by Market in Europe (EU and EFTA), 2006

Table: New Car Registrations by Market in Europe (EU and EFTA), 2005

Competitive Landscape

Table: EU-15 and EFTA, Car Registrations, 2005

Table: Top 10 Best Selling Models in Europe, Jan-May 2006

Suppliers

Table: Top Five OEM Parts Suppliers, 2005

Regulation

European Car Prices

Table: Price of Europe’s five top-selling models by market

Chapter 3 – Business Environment Rankings

Table: Central and Eastern Europe Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-term Risk

Politics – Long-term Risk

CBU Output Growth

Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential

Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Croatia Automotive Industry Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise specified)

Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast

Table: Croatia – Economic Activity

Country Snapshot: Croatia Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistic

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Chapter 6 - Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles

Regional Market Overview

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country ranking, sales

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country ranking

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country ranking, production

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Company ranking of significant regional manufacturers

Table: Recent and planned investments in Central and Eastern Europe

Croatia Commercial Vehicle Market Overview

Sales

Table: Cross-border traffic of goods in freight vehicles, by type of traffic

Table: Types of transport in Croatia

Table: Size of Commercial Vehicle Market: Croatia

Table: Commercial Vehicle Market Forecast: Croatia

Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape

Table: Largest Importers – Croatia Automotive Sector*

Chapter 8 – Company Monitor

Regional Case Study: Kia

Sales

Table: Kia Sales in Europe (EU and EFTA), By Model

Production

Table: Kia Production In Europe (EU, EFTA, Romania and Turkey), By Model

Company Profiles

PZ Auto

Renault Hrvatska

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources

Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Wages (ave. labour force per annum), US$ PPP

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn