摘要

Despite the notoriously high prices of new vehicles in Vietnam, the market continues to experience rapid growth in sales, forcing BMI to raise its estimate for 2007 sales. Total sales by the 16 members of the Vietnam Automobile Manufacturers Association (VAMA) for the first 10 months of 2007 rose to 58,320 units, up 88% y-o-y, with passenger car sales rising by 141% to 12,743 units. The growth has been attributed to a growing number of middle-income consumers, who can afford the relatively higher prices of vehicles in Vietnam. However, the pricing issue will once again be addressed with another cut in tariffs for imported new vehicles.

The report highlights the threats to carmakers producing in Vietnam, not only from cheaper new imports, but also the newly liberalised used car market. However, new car sales so far have not suffered from the repeal of the ban on imported second-hand vehicles, while a number of manufacturers have proven that they can successfully lower prices on their domestically-produced new models to compete with imports. Ford, which saw its sales rise by 132% in October 2007 to 649 units, cited the success of its Ford Everest and new Ford Escape SUVs as a catalyst for growth, based on their price of between US$36,000 and US$39,000. Indeed, the Ford Escape 2007 has been hailed as a breakthrough with a price tag some US$2,700 lower than the previous model.

Vietnam's growth and its potential for further expansion have earned the country first place in BMI's Business Environment Ranking for the automotive industry in the Asia Pacific region. The market's economic risk rating has been increased, with the government showing its commitment to gradually modernising the economy by launching several large infrastructure projects, which in turn have generated demand for the commercial vehicle segment. The market's CBU output potential also scores highly, based on the government's plans to raise output to 240,000 units by 2010. Moreover, we anticipate an improvement in the industry's regulatory environment as a result of Vietnam's accession to the World Trade Organisation.

Toyota retains leadership of the market with 22% of sales in October and growth of 50% y-o-y for the month. GM Daewoo subsidiary Vidamco's stellar sales growth for October took the company into second place with 9.7%. Mitsubishi, with sales growth of 95% in October, took third with 438 units sold. The strongest growth over the 10 months to October came from Honda, which sold 3,247 units, up 529% y-o-y. Honda was followed by Vidamco, which saw sales rise by 332% y-o-y. Vidamco also registered the highest growth for the month of October with a 584% increase to 882 units, which it attributes to demand for the Captiva utility model and Centra sedan. Going forward, BMI would expect to see Ford making strong gains, as it attempts to adapt to the market with lower priced new vehicles.

目录及图表

Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Vietnam Auto Industry SWOT

Vietnam Economics SWOT

Vietnam Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 – Regional Market Overview

Table: Asia Pacific Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: Asia Pacific Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 3 – Business Environment Ranking

Table: Asia Pacific Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-term Risk

Politics – Long-term Risk

CBU Output Growth

Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential

Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Production and Sales

Table: Vietnam Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Trade

Table: Vietnam Auto Forecasts (CBUs, unless otherwise stated)

Economic Contribution

Table: Vietnam Auto Forecasts (CBUs, unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Vietnam - Economic Activity

Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles

Country Landscape

Table: Vietnam Commercial Vehicle Production (2000-2005)

Key Players

Forecast

Table: Vietnam Commercial Vehicle Sales And Production Forecast (2006-2010)

Country Snapshot: Vietnam Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape

Market Overview

Industry Developments

Competitive Landscape

Chapter 8 – Company Monitor

General Motors Asia Pacific Regional Overview

Table: GM Asia Vehicle Production 2005 (CBUs)

Table: GM Asia Vehicle Sales 2005 (CBUs)

Profiles

Toyota

Vidamco

Mercedes-Benz

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources

Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Table- Manufacturing Wages (ave. per annum), US$

Table - Population .

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn