摘要

A late rally for Thailand's new vehicle sales suggested that 2007 may have ended with less of a decline in sales than first expected. Sales for September and October showed a return to growth, prompting BMI to revise its estimates upwards. If sales maintained their upswing in the remainder of the year, we expect sales to have reached 620,000 units by year-end, representing a decline of 9%, compared with earlier forecasts of a double-digit slide. Moreover BMI is forecasting a recovery by 2008 when the country's political situation should be more certain following the December general elections and consumer confidence improves.

The industry's production remains stable, largely due to the strong export focus. Indeed, both output and exports will receive a further boost from the government's 'Eco car' plan, which offers tax incentives to manufacturers producing low-emission vehicles. Seven carmakers have been granted approval for their projects so far, each with a minimum capacity requirement of 100,000 units to be eligible for the incentives. As a result BMI has revised its output estimate for 2007 and its forecasts the next five years, now expecting output of 1.27mn units in 2007 and almost 2.2mn units in 2012. BMI has also increased its export estimate for 2007 to 673,708 units, representing growth of 25% y-o-y, following a rise in exports of 26% in the year to October.

Although Thailand's openness to investors and geographical position make the country an attractive destination for manufacturers, other factors let the market down in BMI's Business Environment Ranking for the automotive industry in the Asia Pacific region, where Thailand stands joint seventh. The political uncertainty over the past year has dragged on the country's overall score, as has the country's economic position reflected in weak consumer spending. However, with the general elections in December 2007 expected to regain some stability and the eco car projects boosting the country's output, Thailand could improve on this position in the near future.

The market continues to be dominated by Japanese manufacturers, with Toyota heading the pack, followed by Isuzu, Honda, Mitsubishi and Nissan. However, most manufacturers posted falls in sales for the first 10 months of 2007, which could open up the market. Moreover, Ford has aligned its strategy with government policy, by lowering the prices of its E20 Focus models in line with the new excise taxes to be introduced on January 1 2008 to encourage the use of alternative fuels. In the commercial segment, the arrival of India's Tata Motors will inject new life into the flagging one-tonne pick-up segment, which has long been a mainstay of the Thai market.

目录及图表

Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Thailand Autos Industry SWOT

Chapter 2 – Regional Market Overview

Table: Asia Pacific Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: Asia Pacific Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 3 – Business Environment Ranking

Table: Asia/Pacific Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-term Risk

Politics – Long-term Risk

CBU Output Growth

Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential

Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Production and Sales

Trade

Economic Contribution

Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: GDP, Output And Population

Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles

Country Landscape

Thailand Commercial Vehicle Market (2000-2005)

Thailand Commercial Vehicle Production (2000-2005)

Key Players

Thailand Commercial Vehicle Market (Under One Tonne) By Brand May 2006

Key Investments

Forecast

Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape

Market Overview

Industry Developments

Competitive Landscape

Company Developments

Chapter 8 - Company Monitor

General Motors Asia Pacific Regional Overview

Table: GM Asia Vehicle Production 2005 (CBUs)

Table: GM Asia Vehicle Sales 2005 (CBUs)

Profiles

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources

Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Table- Manufacturing Wages (ave. per annum), US$

Table - Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn