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摘要

New Business Environment Ratings

For 2008, BMI has made wholesale changes to the methodology behind its proprietary Business Environment Rankings for the tourism industry across Asia. Our new rating system is divided into distinct areas: limits of potential returns, which evaluates the size and growth potential of every state's tourism industry, and also broader factors that may inhibit its development over the coming years; and risks to potential returns, which evaluates industry risks and threats coming from the state's political and economic backdrop that may impede the realisation of anticipated returns from the sector over our forecast period.

These ratings have been developed to complement BMI's range of country risk ratings and now integrate all of the 16 industries covered by BMI under one methodology.

In these new ratings, Thailand emerges as the best-placed country, scoring 68 points out of a possible 100. The country has recovered well from the tsunami of late 2004 and continues to prioritise the tourism industry as a key source of foreign currency earnings. The lowest-placed countries are Indonesia and Vietnam, which both score 56 points. Indonesia is penalised for the still-high risk of further bombings on the key tourism island of Bali, while Vietnam is still only in the very early stages of establishing a dedicated tourism policy. Indeed, it was only in September 2007 that the nation created its first ever ministry of tourism.

Tourism Arrivals Underperform

In line with our expectations, tourism arrival growth in Thailand remains below the high rates seen in recent years. In H107 6.95mn tourists visited the country, representing growth of 3.3% year-on-year. There was positive growth from key markets such as Europe, the Middle East and Oceania, with these sectors growing by 14.45%, 19.97% and 20.66% year-on-year respectively. A particularly interesting trend was the rise of visitors from Russia, increasing by an impressive 50.94% y-o-y. This is a testament to strong efforts by Thai agencies to market the attractiveness of Thailand as a tourist destination, and the impact of launching direct flights between St Petersburg and Bangkok in 2006.

However, a less encouraging trend was a decline in arrivals from Thailand's key regional markets; China, Malaysia, Japan and Korea. Arrivals from these countries fell by 17.72%, 11.64%, 6.54% and 2.31% respectively y-o-y. Thai officials have noted that the decrease in arrivals from China may reflect the increasing number of Approved Destination Status countries for Chinese tourists, giving them a wider choice of holiday destination. However, we also believe that concerns regarding Thailand's political situation have acted as a disincentive to tourism. With elections due in December 2007, we do not expect Q407 arrivals to differ significantly from the current trend. As such, we maintain our revised full-year arrivals forecast at 14.5mn, representing growth of 5% y-o-y.

Elections In December

The military government that took power in September 2006 has set the election date for 23 December. Although this is a positive sign for the return to an elected civilian government, the election date has already been postponed once, from 25 November, and further delays cannot be ruled out. The elections are likely to usher in a military-friendly government, despite the military's pledges that it would not seek to hang onto power. The appointment of former military general Sonthi Boonyaratglin as deputy prime minister in October 2007 has reinforced this impression, with Sonthi now likely to pursue a political career.

Thailand To Host ASEAN Tourism Forum

Thailand will host the 2008 ASEAN Tourism Forum, to be held on 18-26 January 2008. The annual travel industry summit will be attended by the 10 member countries: Brunei; Cambodia; Indonesia; Laos; Malaysia; Myanmar; the Philippines; Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. The forum will act as a means of coordinating tourism policy among the grouping, while also offering individual national agencies the opportunity to hold meetings or discussion groups with their regional counterparts.

Special Focus: Elections in December

The military government that took power in September 2006 has set the election date for 23 December. Although this is a positive sign for the return to an elected civilian government, the election date has already been postponed once, from 25 November, and further delays cannot be ruled out. The elections are likely to usher in a military-friendly government, despite the military's pledge that it would not seek to hang onto power. The appointment of former military general Sonthi Boonyaratglin as deputy prime minister in October 2007 has reinforced this impression, with Sonthi now likely to pursue a political career.

Setting a date was in part linked to the need to appease mounting social protests. Concerns over the failure of the military government to set a date has led to demonstrations and protests, some of them violent in nature. These protests are led by a variety of political actors, including members of the former ruling Thai Rak Thai party of the former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, and pro-democracy activists. These disparate groups – most of whom have little in common except opposition to the military government – have united under the name of the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship.

目录及图表

Chapter 1 - New This Quarter

Tourism Arrivals Beat Expectations

Bombing In Bangkok

Teething Troubles At Suvarnabhumi

Special Focus: Military Coup

Special Focus: Bomb Attacks In Bangkok

Chapter 2 - Market Overview

Thailand Tourism Industry SWOT

Tourism Outlook

Table: Travel: Historical Data & Forecasts

2006 Figures

Special Focus – Ecotourism

Table: Thailand Tourism – Historical Data And Forecasts

Chapter 3 - Macroeconomic Scenario

Table: GDP, Output & Population

Chapter 4 - Bird Flu Update: Still A Key Issue

Tourism Business Environment

Tourism Business Environment Ranking

Table: Asia Travel And Tourism – Business Environment Ranking

Politics – Long-Term Risk

Overall Business Environment

International Tourism Receipts

Visitor Arrival Growth

Investment Environment

Shock Factor

Chapter 5 - Travel

Commercial Airlines

Problems At Suvarnabhumi

Special Focus: Rising Jet Fuel Costs

Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2006

Hospitality

Accommodation

Regional Case Study: Intercontinental Hotels Group (Asia Pacific)

2004 Results

Strategy

Fresh Projects

Outlook

Tourism Infrastructure

Chapter 6 - Company Profiles

Dusit Hotels & Resorts

Central Plaza Hotels

Thai Airways International

Chapter 7 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Tourism Industry

Sources