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摘要
Tourism Overview
Data for the early part of 2007 are extremely positive for the tourism sector as a whole. Latest official customs data for the first seven months of 2007 indicate that foreign visitor arrivals totalled just under 4.0mn, representing a very strong increase of some 23% compared with the corresponding period a year earlier. Most of the visitor arrivals came from European countries (93.8%), while 60.3% of arrivals came from the EU. Over the same seven month period, and following considerable growth in 2006, the number of Romanian departures abroad was up a significant 25% year-on-year (y-o-y) to almost 5.9mn.
Hospitality
During the first seven months of 2007, tourism nights in all accommodation establishments totalled around 11.2mn (foreign and domestic tourists), an increase of 11.4% compared with the corresponding period of the previous year. Data for foreign tourists are even more favourable, with a total of just over 2.0mn overnight stays in the same period (18.3% of total overnight stays), a strong increase of some 14% y-o-y. The number of foreign visitor arrivals in collective accommodation establishments, meanwhile, was also up 14% y-o-y, to 874,300 visitors (nearly 23% of total arrivals).
Forecast Scenario
Second quarter real GDP growth in Romania fell below expectations, and our full-year 2007 growth forecast has now been downwardly revised. Our new 5.8% forecast is predicated on a slight tempering in consumer spending and a disappointing performance for exports, yet is still slightly above market consensus. This is supported by our view that government spending looks set to accelerate, and that growth will also be supported by investment – particularly in construction – as massive infrastructure projects and economic development continue apace.
The impact of EU accession (at the beginning of 2007) appears to be having a very strong influence on foreign visitor arrivals – stronger than we originally anticipated. Consequently, BMI has raised its growth estimate for arrivals in 2007 to a robust 18% y-o-y. The outlook for further increases in arrivals over the extended forecast period to 2012 remains extremely favourable. This is particularly so given the ongoing stimulus provided by EU membership and the establishment of tourism promotion offices overseas.
Tarom
Although Tarom, the national flag carrier in Romania, recorded annual growth in passenger numbers of around 10% in both 2005 and 2006, the airline appears to be on course to achieve much stronger growth in 2007. The most recent traffic data for the first seven months of 2007 show Tarom carried 916,100 scheduled passengers, an impressive increase of almost 29% y-o-y. These data, which are clearly supported by recent EU accession, should help underpin the company's aim to sharply improve its profitability.
Wizz Air
After Wizz Air, the Hungarian low-cost carrier, opened its sixth operational base in Bucharest in June 2007, with one A320 aircraft and local crew, the company aims to be largest low-cost airline in Romania by mid-2008. To achieve its target, from February 2008, Wizz Air will further expand operations from Bucharest by deploying an additional brand new A320 aircraft and starting new flights from Bucharest to Parma and Venice (Treviso) and increase frequencies on most of its existing routes. According to the airline, from early 2008, its low-cost network from Bucharest will consist of eight routes, served with 38 flights per week.
目录及图表
Chapter 1 - New This Quarter
Tourism Review
Forecast Scenario
Wizz Air Expands Routes
Chapter 2 - Market Overview
Tourism Outlook
Table: Romania Tourism - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Romania Travel Industry - Historical Data & Forecasts
Romania Tourism Industry SWOT
Chapter 3 - Forecast Scenario
Economy To Expand Above 5%
Risks To Outlook
Table: Romania Macroeconomic Data and Forecasts
Chapter 4 - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Chapter 5 - Hospitality
Accommodation
Table: Structure of Accommodation Market
Accommodation Developments
Table: Hotel Industry - Key Players 2005
Chapter 6 - Infrastructure
Middle East, Europe and Africa Tourism Business Environment Rankings
Table: Middle East, Europe and Africa Tourism Business Environment Rankings Matrix
Long Term Political Risk
Country Business Environment
International Tourism Receipts
Visitor Arrival Growth
Investment Environment
Shock Factor
Chapter 7 - Company Profiles
Tarom SWOT Analysis
Tarom
Unita Turism Holding
Austrian Airlines
Hilton
Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism sector data
Sources