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摘要
Tourism Overview
Data for the first eight months of 2006 show foreign visitor arrivals totalled 42.3mn, up just 0.4% on the corresponding period of 2005. A main factor behind this disappointing performance was the decline over the period in the number of arrivals from the top two source markets (in 2005), Germany and the Czech Republic. Germany recorded a fall of 1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), while arrivals from the Czech Republic continued to decline ? following a sharp fall in 2005 ? recording 11% fewer visitors than in the same period in the previous year. Germany?s share of total arrivals also diminished, compared with the aggregate position in 2005, accounting for some 55% of arrivals in the period January to August 2006. Relatively strong growth rates in arrivals, however, were recorded in other important source markets, including Ukraine, Belarus, Russia and Lithuania. Arrivals from Great Britain, meanwhile, were up a buoyant 33% y-o-y to some 300,000 visitors. The favourable increase in Polish departures abroad in 2005 ? stimulated in part by the growing number of low-cost airlines in the Polish market ? has continued into this year, with departures totalling 30.5mn, up 11% y-o-y in the first eight months of 2006.
Hospitality
Latest data, which include only part of the 2006 summer season, show some weakness in foreign arrivals. In H106, foreign tourist overnight stays in all collective accommodation establishments totalled around 4.4mn, which represents a fall of 4.4% y-o-y. Due to a more favourable increase in overnight stays by domestic residents, the total number of tourist overnight stays in H106 (foreign and domestic) amounted to just over 20mn, up 3.2% y-o-y.
Forecast Scenario
Although BMI had previously expected a slowdown in the growth rate of foreign visitor arrivals, we have, this quarter, revised down further our growth forecasts. Numbers are now expected to reach about 66mn in 2006, rising to around 74mn in 2010. The more moderate growth in arrivals over the medium term is premised on continuing relatively subdued economic conditions in the eurozone and the strength of the Polish zloty against the euro.
Hilton
The Hilton Hotels Corporation (HHC) is set to open its first hotel in Poland, the Hilton Warsaw Hotel and Convention Centre, in early 2007.
目录及图表
Chapter 1 - New This Quarter
Tourism Overview
Hospitality
Forecast Scenario
Chapter 2 - Market Overview
Tourism Outlook
Table: Poland Tourism - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Poland Travel - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Visitor Arrivals by Source Market (2005)
Poland Tourism Industry SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
Business Environment SWOT
FDI Environment
Investment Climate
FDI Levels
Investment Opportunities
Chapter 3 - Forecast Scenario
Economic Activity
Table: Poland - Economic Activity
Chapter 4 - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Table: Key Players - Commercial Airlines (2005)
Chapter 5 - Hospitality
Accommodation
Table - Structure of Accommodation Market
Table - Orbis SA (2005)
Accommodation Developments
Infrastructure
Chapter 6 - Middle East, Europe and Africa Tourism Business Environment Rankings
Table: Middle East, Europe and Africa Tourism Business Environment Rankings Matrix
Country Business Environment
International Tourism Receipts
Visitor Arrival Growth
Investment Environment
Shock Factor
Chapter 7 - Company Profiles
LOT Polish Airlines
Air Polonia
Orbis SA
Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism sector data
Sources