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摘要
Tourism Overview
According to revised official data, foreign visitor arrivals totalled 38.3mn in 2006, representing a favourable increase of some 6% year-on-year (y-o-y). Following a slowdown in growth in 2005, outbound Hungarian traveller numbers declined last year to some 16.6mn, a fall of 6.5% y-o-y. Latest data for H107 show foreign visitor arrivals totalled almost 17.3mn, compared with around 16.5mn in the same period of the previous year, representing a continuing favourable increase of 5% y-o-y. Meanwhile, there appears to have been a rebound in 2007 in outbound Hungarian traveller numbers, with travellers totalling about 7.9mn, up 3.6% y-o-y.
Forecast Scenario
Over the coming years, Hungary's main challenge will be to revive its regional competitiveness amid impressive growth figures among regional peers, such as Slovakia and Slovenia, which grew by 9.0% and 7.2% y-o-y in Q107 respectively. We are forecasting economic growth to slow to 3.2% this year from 3.9% in 2006, and expect growth to slow further to 2.9% in 2008. With Hungary's budget deficit likely to decline as a result of recent austerity measures, we expect public spending to pick up towards the end of the decade. This should aid economic growth in 2009, at which point we expect growth to pick up again to 4.5%. For the time being, solid eurozone growth will keep Hungary's exports buoyed. Based on the latest data for arrivals in 2007, BMI has moderated slightly the estimate for 2007 to around 40.4mn foreign visitors (up 5.5% y-o-y). We also maintain that growth in arrivals will slow further in 2008 and 2009, partly due to weaker economic conditions in key source markets, particularly Romania. Despite this, growth in arrivals should average a relatively favourable 4.4% per annum between 2008 and 2012 (our extended forecast period).
Hospitality
Following a fall of 7% y-o-y in the number of foreign tourist nights spent in all accommodation establishments in 2006, the most recent data show continuing weakness, with the number of foreign tourist nights down just over 3% y-o-y in the first seven months of 2007 (the number of nights by German tourists was down a marked 10% y-o-y).
Malév Hungarian Airlines
Latest data on passenger numbers in the first seven months of 2007 for the national flag carrier Malév Hungarian Airlines show reasonable growth of 5% y-o-y, while revenues in H107 were up some 7% yo- y. Malév also registered a considerable increase in passenger traffic on several routes in the period January-July, in particular on the Copenhagen, Tel Aviv and Tirgu Mures routes. Over the same period, the most profitable routes for the airline were Amsterdam, Copenhagen, London and Bucharest.
Wizz Air
During the 2007/08 winter season, Hungarian budget airline Wizz Air is introducing new flights and increasing capacity. In October 2007, the airline launched a new flight from Budapest to Milan (Bergamo) and increased frequencies on a number of its existing routes from its base in Budapest. Overall, during the current winter schedule, the capacity from Budapest will increase by 22% compared with a year earlier. In particular, this reflects strong growth in flights between Budapest and London (Luton), Rome (Ciampino), Paris (Beauvais) and Eindhoven. As part of Wizz Air's robust growth plan in Central and Eastern Europe, the airline will open its seventh new base in Poznan (Poland) in January 2008 and launch new routes.
目录及图表
Chapter 1 - Executive Summary
Tourism Overview
Forecast Scenario
Accommodation
Wizz Air
Chapter 2 - Market Overview
Tourism Outlook
Table - Hungary Tourism: Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Hungarian Travel Industry - Historical Data & Forecasts
Tourism Industry SWOT
Chapter 3 - Forecast Scenario
Going Into The Downturn
Risks To Medium-Term Outlook
Table: Nominal And Real GDP
Chapter 4 - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Table: Key Players - Hungarian Airline Market (2005)
Car Rental Firms
Chapter 5 - Hospitality
Table: Structure of Accommodation Market
Accommodation
Table: Leading Operators - Hungarian Accommodation Sector (2005)
Accommodation Developments
Infrastructure
Chapter 6 - Middle East, Europe and Africa Tourism Business Environment Rankings
Table: Middle East, Europe & Africa Tourism Business Environment Rankings Matrix
Long-term Political Risk
Country Business Environment
International Tourism Receipts
Visitor Arrival Growth
Investment Environment
Shock Factor
Chapter 7 - Company Profiles
Malév Hungarian Airlines SWOT
Malév Hungarian Airlines
Danubius Hotel and Spa Rt
Accor-Pannonia Hotels Rt
Wizz Air
Hilton
Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Sources