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Tourism Overview
Data for the period January to August 2007 show foreign tourist arrivals were up a relatively strong 8% year-on-year (y-o-y), while domestic tourism recorded slightly stronger growth of 11% y-o-y (the tourism sector appears to have been little affected by a considerable number of major forest fires in mid-2007 in Croatia). Overall tourism (domestic and foreign) was up 8% compared with the corresponding period of 2006. Arrivals from the top two source markets, however, recorded weak growth rates, with German and Italian arrivals both up a lowly 1% y-o-y (this is surprising given the very strong growth rates recorded in the early part of the 2007). After strong growth in 2006 though arrivals from Japan, Australia and the US, the trend continued in the first eight months of 2007. Croatia also attracted more foreign visitors from Central & Eastern Europe, with buoyant y-o-y growth rates in arrivals from Romania, Russia and Slovakia, for example. Over the same period, foreign vessels realised 390 cruises in Croatia, up some 5% compared with the corresponding period of 2006. Passenger numbers on these cruises, however, increased strongly, by 16.2% y-o-y to some 436,230, with each passenger staying on average 1.6 days in the country.
Forecast Scenario
After a stellar first quarter out-turn, the government has upwardly revised its full-year 2007 real GDP growth estimate to 6-7%. BMI favours a more conservative 5.5%, given tight monetary conditions and slow progress on key structural reforms. We now project average growth from 2007-2011 of 4.9%. BMI forecasts a strong recovery in foreign tourist arrivals in 2007, although tourist arrival growth is expected to slow in 2008 and 2009 (our forecasts remain unchanged this quarter). Given that we foresee EU accession in 2011, a pick-up in the tourism sector in that year is also anticipated. The background economic scenario is that BMI is expecting the eurozone economy (the main tourist source region for Croatia) to remain in solid shape through the forecast period, although growth is set to moderate from 2006's cyclical high of 2.7%. With regard to the Croatian currency, the kuna, against the euro, BMI anticipates further gains for the kuna towards HRK7.0000/EUR over the forecast period, but this will only be a gradual trend, making the country relatively more expensive for foreign visitors from the eurozone.
Hospitality
Recent data for the first eight months of 2007 show that the total number of tourist nights amounted to 47.5mn (domestic and foreign tourists), up a reasonable 6% y-o-y and suggesting a more favourable outlook for 2007 compared with a year earlier. The number of foreign tourist nights was also up 6% y-o-y to some 42.3mn nights (89% of the total). The average number of nights per foreign tourist arrival was 5.5 nights. Of the foreign tourist nights, the key source markets recorded a very mixed picture. Germany showed an increase in nights of just 1% y-o-y, while Slovenian foreign tourist nights were up a favourable 9% y-o-y. Nights by Italian tourists over the period, meanwhile, were down marginally. Overall though, the data indicates that Croatia is successfully diversifying its source markets.
Croatia Airlines
Latest figures for the period January to July 2007 show Croatia Airlines carried a total of 930,240 passengers, a relatively strong 8% increase compared with the corresponding period in 2006. Over this same period, scheduled international flights carried 11% more passengers y-o-y (a total of 577,477 passengers), while passenger numbers on scheduled domestic flights also recorded good growth y-o-y. Moreover, the airline achieved its best ever month on record – since the start of commercial flights in 1991 – in July 2007, with 201,635 passengers.
目录及图表
Chapter 1 - Executive Summary
Tourism Overview
Forecast Scenario
Hospitality
Adris Group
Chapter 2 - Market Overview
Tourism Outlook
Table: Croatia Tourism Industry - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Croatia Travel Industry - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Croatia Tourism Industry SWOT
Chapter 3 - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Chapter 4 - Hospitality
Accommodation
Table: Structure of Accommodation Market
Accommodation Developments
Table: Croatia Hotel Industry - Key Players (2005)
Gaming
Infrastructure
Chapter 5 - Forecast Scenario
45% Growth Expected For Full-Year
Table: GDP, Output and Population
Risks To Outlook
Chapter 6 - Middle East, Europe and Africa Tourism Business Environment Rankings
Table: Middle East, Europe and Africa Tourism Business Environment Rankings Matrix
Long-Term Political Risk
Country Business Environment
International Tourism Receipts
Visitor Arrival Growth
Investment Environment
Shock Factor
Croatia Business Environment
Table: Business Environment Outlook SWOT
Foreign Direct Investment
FDI Regime
Table: Emerging Europe, Annual FDI Inflows
Table: Annual FDI Inflows
Chapter 7 - Company Profiles
Croatia Airlines
Adris Group
Cubus Lux
Liburnia Riviera Hoteli
Hilton
Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism sector data
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