发布时间：2008

摘要

Tourism Overview

Official data for the first nine months of 2007 released by the National Statistical Institute show foreign tourist arrivals to Bulgaria standing at 4,338,972 visitors1. For the year as a whole, the head of Bulgaria 's hotel and restaurant association (BHRA), Blagov Ragin, has been quoted in local media as believing that some 6mn tourists have visited the country over 2007, marking a 30% annual increase. However, at the time this report went to press, we had no concrete figures for 2007 as a whole. BMI believes a more modest increase, in the order of 12%, is likely.

Tourism revenues for the first eight months of 2007 totalled EUR1.84bn (US$2.61bn), some 17.8% higher year on year, according to the State Agency for Tourism. Local media have reported the full-year figure as standing around EUR2.4bn (US$3.5bn), which would represent a 7% increase y-o-y. We have used this provisional figure as the basis for our forecasts.

Forecast Scenario

We believe that Bulgaria 's tourism sector will continue to show steady, if not spectacular, growth over our forecast period to 2012. For 2007, we believe that figures of 12% growth for tourist arrivals and 7% growth for tourism revenues are achievable. However, over the balance of our forecast period, we would choose to be conservative, setting an average growth rate of 6% for the years out to 2012.

In some ways, Bulgaria has been a victim of its own success, with many European tourism companies and private investors rushing to invest in the sector in the country before it acceded to the EU on January 1 2007. Since that time, it can be argued that the local tourism and property markets have become somewhat over-saturated, although prices remain buoyant. Add to that the fact that transport infrastructure in many areas of the country is in dire need of modernisation and it is clear that Bulgaria now needs to do some work to raise tourism arrival figures back to the high levels seen in 2003 and 2004.

Ambitious Plans For Tourism

In January 2008, the government announced its national strategy for tourism covering the 2008-2013 period. This ambitious document calls for tourism revenues to hit EUR6bn by 2013, up from a current level of around EUR2.4bn.

Among the goals of this programme are: positioning Bulgaria as a higher-class tourist destination, improving both the capacity and efficiency of the tourism sector and infrastructure, as well as the need to meet international standards and European practices across the sector. Improved consumer rights also play an integral part in the strategy. The government estimates that a total investment of EUR250mn will be necessary to achieve the strategy goals over the period.

BMI believes that a new national strategy was necessary, as the country has lost ground to regional peers in recent years.

Data Difficulties

At the start of February 2008, the State Tourism Agency stated that it believes official statistical data underpinning the country 's strategy for tourism development are incorrect. In particular, STA head Anelia Krushkova believes that the tourism revenue forecasts for the years 2008 through 2013 are too ambitious. Current predictions are calling for tourism revenues to virtually triple by 2013, indicating an annual average growth rate of 25%. Krushkova believes these figures are not realistic.

This admission by the STA bears out BMI 's own scepticism surrounding the Bulgarian tourism industry at present. Too many tourism boards and a lack of clarity in the data used to underpin official forecasts are both areas where the country needs to raise its game, if it is to take back market share from fastgrowing neighbour countries such as Romania and Croatia.

目录及图表

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Tourism Overview

Forecast Scenario

Bulgaria Air Privatisation

Varna and Bourgas Airports

Chapter 2 - Market Overview

Tourism Outlook

Table: Bulgaria Tourism Industry - Historical Data & Forecasts

Table: Bulgaria Travel Industry - Historical Data & Forecasts

Bulgaria Tourism Industry SWOT

Chapter 3 - Travel

Commercial Airlines

Table: Airlines - Key Players 2005

Chapter 4 - Hospitality

Accommodation

Accommodation Developments

Table: Hotel Sector - Key Players, Financial Performance 2005

Gaming

Chapter 5 - Forecast Scenario

Greece – Bulgaria’s largest source market in 2005

The Eurozone

Chapter 6 - Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Imbalanced Growth: A Necessary Evil?

No Need To Panic

Risks To Outlook

Table: GDP, Output & Population

Chapter 7 - Middle East, Europe and Africa Tourism Business Environment Rankings

Table: Middle East, Europe and Africa Tourism Business Environment Rankings Matrix

Long Term Political Risk

Country Business Environment

International Tourism Receipts

Visitor Arrival Growth

Investment Environment

Shock Factor

Chapter 8 - Business Environment

Business Environment Outlook

Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT

Foreign Direct Investment

Overview

FDI Regime

Investment Conditions

FDI Inflows

Chapter 9 - Company Profiles

Albena

Bulgaria Air

Interhotel Sandanski

Hilton

Chapter 10 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Tourism Industry

Sources