发布时间：2008

The Baltics Tourism Report

Independent 5 year Tourism industry forecasts in the Baltics. Original Tourism market research and Tourism sector trend analysis for the the Baltics Tourism industry. Competitive intelligence, Baltic Tourism company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic Tourism companies in the Baltics. The the Baltics Tourism Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering tourist expenditure, government expenditure on tourism, foreign direct investment projects, domestic airline revenues, passenger arrivals and departures, and the country’s hospitality markets; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2011; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local companies; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes, as well as political risk factors affecting the Baltic tourism sector. Business Monitor International’s Baltic Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Baltic tourism industry.

Key Benefits of Report Benchmark BMI’s Independent 5-year Tourism Industry Forecasts on the Baltics to test other views – a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Baltic Tourism market. Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Baltic Tourism Sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Baltics. Exploit the Latest Competitive Baltic Tourism Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure – includes multi-national and national companies in the Baltics. Executive Summary

Tourism Overview

Official tourism arrival data for 2007 has not yet been released by the authorities in all three Baltic states. The clearest picture is emerging from Estonia, which welcomed some 1,330,262 tourists (excluding EU citizens) over the January-November 2007 period. This 11-month data points towards a small increase, in the order of 1-2%, for tourist arrivals to Estonia over the full year.

The headline picture in Lithuania is less encouraging, with provisional tourist arrival data (which also excludes EU citizens) showing a 3.8% decline, to 2,228,562. However, we use airport throughput data as a more reliable proxy for overall tourist arrivals, as this includes EU citizens. This figure has shown an 18% rise over 2007.

No data has yet been made available for Latvia. However, we are inclined to be cautious and believe the country will have seen a small decline in visitor numbers for 2007, following the one-off boost to arrival numbers caused by its hosting of the World Ice Hockey Championships in 2006.

Forecast Scenario

We believe that the overall picture for Baltic tourism is somewhat mixed at present. The flood of ‘stag parties ' and related holidays to destinations such as Tallinn in recent years has done much to colour perceptions of Baltic tourism. Moreover, the cost advantage enjoyed by the Baltic states during the early years of the 21st Century has faded somewhat, as prices rise towards EU standards.

However, that is not to say that all is doom and gloom. The capital of Lithuania, Vilnius, has been chosen as the European capital city of culture in 2009, which should boost visitor numbers. The region should also continue to benefit from the booming cruise trade. In addition, there should be increased business travel to the countries over our forecast period. Above all, the entry of the three Baltic states to the EU Schengen Zone (which abolishes passport checks when travelling between member states) in December 2007 should do much to boost tourist flow over the longer term.

In terms of each market, Estonia and Lithuania will continue to attract the greatest number of tourists, with Latvia likely to be the laggard of the Baltic states as far as tourism market development is concerned.

Regional Airlines In Great Shape

One key strength of the Baltic region is its robust aviation industry. The flag carriers of all three Baltic states (airBaltic, flyLAL and Estonian Air) are all turning a profit and boosting market share at the current time. We believe that the industry will continue to be robust and that the regional airports at Riga, Tallinn and Vilnius will show sharp increases in passenger throughput across our forecast period to 2012.

Data Difficulties

One key problem when dealing with Baltic tourism is the differing approaches to tourist arrivals adopted by each country. Whereas Latvia counts all incoming travellers, Lithuania and Estonia have not counted arrivals from EU countries since their accession in 2004. A standardised approach to the industry across all three states could do much to help its development, as it would clearly identify where tourists are coming from and how best the Baltic states can tailor their tourism product offering to meet this demand.