发布时间：2008.5

摘要

Countries covered: Thailand

In March 2008, we updated all data for the 59 countries surveyed with official figures, sourced fromcentral banks and regulators. In most cases, we were able to find data that pertained to the end of 2007: inalmost all other cases, the data pertains to September 30 2007. As a result, the insights that we derive onparticular countries are based on consistently sourced information that is far more current than it had beenpreviously.

Although we gather data for countries such as the US, Japan, Australia and the eurozone, the vastmajority of the 59 countries whose banking industries we survey are, or are generally seen as being,emerging markets. For all the widely publicised problems of large banks in developed countries, in thewake of the subprime banking crisis in the US, 2007 was an extremely good year for the banking sectorsof the emerging markets. In local currency terms, the median growth in assets was 21% (in Brazil). Themedian rates of growth in loans to non-bank customers and in deposits were 22% (in India) and 18% (inMorocco). In some countries - and not just those enjoying oil booms - the figures were spectacular. InUkraine, for instance, assets and deposits rose by 76% and 62% respectively. Loans grew by more thanone-third in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Peru, Bahrain, Iranand Nigeria. Deposits also rose by more than one-third in most of these countries.

In absolute terms, Thailand’s banking sector experienced modest growth through the year to December 312007. In local currency terms, total assets, total loans and total deposits increased by 4%, 5% and 0%respectively. The loan/deposit, loan/asset and loan/GDP ratios all rose.

However, relative to other countries surveyed by BMI, these achievements are good but not great. Of the59 countries surveyed, Thailand ranks 55th in terms of local currency asset growth, 57th in terms of localcurrency loan growth and 58th in terms of local currency deposit growth. Further, all three of the ratiosare rising from very low levels. Thailand’s rankings in terms of its loan/deposit, loan/asset and loan/GDPratios are 29th, 13th and 25th respectively. In a country with per capita GDP of US$3,810, deposits percapita are a healthy US$3,031.

In Q108, we envisaged that total assets, total loans and total deposits would rise by 8%, 8% and 8%annually through the 2007-2012 forecast period. Now, and using an improved forecasting method, we arelooking for the slightly revised down growth rates of 6%, 7% and 5% respectively.Since Q108, we have calculated, on a consistent basis, a Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating(CBBER) for each of the 59 countries surveyed. The CBBER includes an assessment of the limits ofpotential returns: it does this by taking into account the size, growth potential and bancassurancepotential of the banking sector, as well as aspects of the economy in 2007. The CBBER also depends onan assessment of the risks to the realisation of potential returns: this reflects BMI’s assessments ofoverall country risk, together with the regulatory and competitive environment.

Thailand’s CBBER is 62.3. In the context of the Asia Pacific, this means it is no more than a moderatelyattractive country; the CBBERs are higher in many other Asian nations, including (but not limited to)Japan, Hong Kong and China. The major problem is the low level and volatility of per capita GDP andlow prospects of long-term policy continuity. The ratings score for the market structure - the mostimportant component of the assessment of the limits to potential returns - is 66.3. This is somewhatbelow the regional leaders, but still healthy compared with the Asian nations as a whole. By Asia Pacificstandards, the ratings score for the economy - at 57.3 - is also healthy but unexceptional.

目录及图表

Executive Summary

Table: Levels (THBbn)

Table: Levels (US$bn)

Table: Levels At December 2007

Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)

Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In Q208

Table: Projected Levels (THBbn)

Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)

Key Issues

Changes To The Commercial Banking Forecast

Commercial Banking SWOT

Thailand Political SWOT

Thailand Economic SWOT

Thailand Business Environment SWOT

Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating

Table: Thailand Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

Table: Asia Pacific Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

International Context

Lending Trends And External Accounts

Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts, End-2007

Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts (% of GDP)

Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits

Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (US$bn)

Per-Capita Deposits

Table: Comparison Of Per-Capita Deposits, Late 2007 (

Macroeconomic Trends And Developments

Table: Thailand Economic Activity

Industry Forecast Sc

Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)

Table: Projected Levels (bn Units of Local Currency)

Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)

Comment On Developments In 2007

Comment On Forecasts

Comment On Trends and Ratios

Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios - Asia Pacific, Late 2007

Banks’ Bond Portfolios

Table: Bond Portfolios, Late 2007

Competitive Landscape And Protagonists

Methodology

Basis Of Projections

Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating

Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale

Table: Weighting Of Indicators