发布时间：2008.5

摘要

Countries covered: South Africa

In March 2008, we updated all data for the 59 countries surveyed with official figures, sourced fromcentral banks and regulators. In most cases, we were able to find data that pertained to the end of 2007: inalmost all other cases, the data pertains to September 30 2007. As a result, the insights that we derive onparticular countries are based on consistently sourced information that is far more current than it had beenpreviously.

Although we gather data for countries such as the US, Japan, Australia and the eurozone, the vastmajority of the 59 countries whose banking industries we survey are, or are generally seen as being,emerging markets. For all the widely publicised problems of large banks in developed countries, in thewake of the subprime banking crisis in the US, 2007 was an extremely good year for the banking sectorsof the emerging markets. In local currency terms, the median growth in assets was 21% (in Brazil). Themedian rates of growth in loans to non-bank customers and in deposits were 22% (in India) and 18% (inMorocco). In some countries - and not just those enjoying oil booms - the figures were spectacular. InUkraine, for instance, assets and deposits rose by 76% and 62% respectively. Loans grew by more thanone-third in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Peru, Bahrain, Iranand Nigeria. Deposits also rose by more than one-third in most of these countries.

In absolute terms, South Africa’s banking sector enjoyed reasonable growth through the year toSeptember 30 2007. In local currency terms, total assets, total loans and total deposits increased by 19%,23% and 22% respectively. The loan/deposit, loan/asset and loan/GDP ratios all rose.

Relative to other countries surveyed by BMI, these achievements were relatively modest. Of the 59countries surveyed, South Africa ranks 33rd in terms of local currency asset growth, 28th in terms of localcurrency loan growth and 18th in terms of local currency deposit growth. All three of the ratios are risingand are ranked highly. South Africa’s rankings in terms of its loan/deposit, loan/asset and loan/GDP ratiosare 18th, fourth and 12th, respectively. In a country with per capita GDP of US$5,743, deposits per capitaare US$5,590.

In Q108, we envisaged that total assets, total loans and total deposits would rise by 18%, 21% and 18%annually through the 2007-2012 forecast period. Now, and using an improved forecasting method, we arelooking for growth rates of 15%, 16% and 16% respectively.

Since Q108, we have calculated, on a consistent basis, a Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating(CBBER) for each of the 59 countries surveyed. The CBBER includes an assessment of the limits ofpotential returns: it does this by taking into account the size, growth potential and bancassurancepotential of the banking sector, as well as aspects of the economy in 2007. The CBBER also depends onan assessment of the risks to the realisation of potential returns: this reflects BMI’s assessments ofoverall country risk, together with the regulatory and competitive environment.

South Africa’s CBBER is 67.8. In the context of the Middle East and African region, this means that it isthe highest ranked country, though only marginally higher than Bahrain, Israel and the United ArabEmirates. The major problem is the underdevelopment of the country elements. While the score formarket structure - the most important component of the assessment of the limits to potential returns - issignificantly higher than other countries in the region at 71.9, the score for the country is a more modest56.5, lower than a number of other countries in the region.

目录及图表

Executive Summary

Table: Levels (ZARbn)

Table: Levels (US$bn)

Table: Levels At December 2007

Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)

Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In Q208

Table: Projected Levels (ZARZbn)

Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)

Key Issues

Changes To The Commercial Banking Forecast

Commercial Banking SWOT

South Africa Commercial Banking SWOT

Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating

Table: South Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

Table: Middle East & Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

International Context

Lending Trends And External Accounts

Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts, End-2007

Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts (% of GDP)

Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits

Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (US$bn)

Per-Capita Deposits

Table: Comparison Of Per-Capita Deposits, Late 2007

Macroeconomic Trends And Developments

Table: South Africa Economic Activity

Industry Forecast Sc

Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)

Table: Projected Levels (bn Units of Local Currency)

Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)

Comment On Developments In 2007

Comment On Forecasts

Comment On Trends And Ratios

Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios - Middle East & North Africa, Late 2007

Banks’ Bond Portfolios

Table: Bond Portfolios, Late 2007

Competitive Landscape And Protagonists

Methodology

Basis Of Projections

Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating

Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale

Table: Weighting Of Indicators