发布时间：2008.5

摘要

Countries covered: Russia

In March 2008, we updated all data for the 59 countries surveyed with official figures, sourced fromcentral banks and regulators. In most cases, we were able to find data that pertained to the end of 2007: inalmost all other cases, the data pertains to September 30 2007. As a result, the insights that we derive onparticular countries are based on consistently sourced information that is far more current than it had beenpreviously.

Although we gather data for countries such as the US, Japan, Australia and the eurozone, the vastmajority of the 59 countries whose banking industries we survey are, or are generally seen as being,emerging markets. For all the widely publicised problems of large banks in developed countries, in thewake of the subprime banking crisis in the US, 2007 was an extremely good year for the banking sectorsof the emerging markets. In local currency terms, the median growth in assets was 21% (in Brazil). Themedian rates of growth in loans to non-bank customers and in deposits were 22% (in India) and 18% (inMorocco). In some countries - and not just those enjoying oil booms - the figures were spectacular. InUkraine, for instance, assets and deposits rose by 76% and 62% respectively. Loans grew by more thanone-third in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Peru, Bahrain, Iranand Nigeria. Deposits also rose by more than one-third in most of these countries.

In absolute terms, Russia’s banking sector enjoyed strong growth through the year to December 31 2007.In local currency terms, total assets, total loans and total deposits increased by 44%, 51% and 42%respectively. The loan/deposit, loan/asset and loan/GDP ratios all rose.

Relative to other countries surveyed by BMI, Russia’s achievements are very impressive. Of the 59countries surveyed, Russia ranks sixth in terms of both local currency asset growth and local currencyloan growth and fifth in terms of local currency deposit growth. Russia’s rankings in terms of itsloan/deposit, loan/asset and loan/GDP ratios are 13th, 10th and 45th respectively. In a country with percapita GDP of US$9,091, deposits per capita are just US$3,091 or so.

In Q108, we envisaged that total assets, total loans and total deposits would rise by 35%, 31% and 30%annually through the 2007-2012 forecast period. Now, and using an improved forecasting method, we arelooking for slightly lower growth rates of 26%, 28% and 25% respectively.

Since Q108, we have calculated, on a consistent basis, a Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating(CBBER) for each of the 59 countries surveyed. The CBBER includes an assessment of the limits ofpotential returns: it does this by taking into account the size, growth potential and bancassurancepotential of the banking sector, as well as aspects of the economy in 2007. The CBBER also depends onan assessment of the risks to the realisation of potential returns: this reflects BMI’s assessments ofoverall country risk, together with the regulatory and competitive environment.

Russia’s CBBER is 65.0. In the context of the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region, this means it is afairly attractive country; the CBBERs are only higher in each Greece and Hungry. Moreover, the ratingsscore for the market structure - the most important component of the assessment of the limits to potentialreturns - is 71.9. This is significantly higher than any other score in the region (the next highest is Turkeyon 65.6).

In line with trends developing through the first half of 2007 and into 2008, we continue to believe thatinvestments and private consumption will increasingly become the major factors driving growth, with theconstruction, manufacturing and retail trade sectors likely to outperform going forward.

目录及图表

Executive Summary

Table: Levels (RUBbn)

Table: Levels (US$bn)

Table: Levels At December 2007

Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)

Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In Q208

Table: Projected Levels (RUBbn)

Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)

Key Issues

Changes To The Commercial Banking Forecast

Commercial Banking SWOT

Russia Commercial Banking SWOT

Russia Political SWOT

Russia Economic SWOT

Russia Business Environment SWOT

Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating

Table: Russia Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

Table: Central & Eastern Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

International Context

Lending Trends And External Accounts

Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts, End-2007

Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts (% of GDP)

Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits

Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (US$bn)

Per-Capita Deposits

Table: Comparison Of Per-Capita Deposits, Late 2007 (

Macroeconomic Trends And Developments

Table: Russia - Economic Activity

Industry Forecast Sc

Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)

Table: Projected Levels (bn Units of Local Currency)

Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)

Comment On Developments In 2007

Comment On Forecasts

Comment On Trends And Ratios

Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios Central & Eastern Europe, Late 2007

Banks’ Bond Portfolios

Table: Bond Portfolios, Late 2007

Competitive Landscape And Protagonists

Methodology

Basis Of Projections

Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating

Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale

Table: Weighting Of Indicators