发布时间：2008.4

摘要

Countries covered: Australia

Introduction

The Australian mortgage market is facing a number of internal and external challenges. Record low housing affordability is pressuring mortgagors, and the global credit crisis has increased funding costs for lenders. This report puts the current situation in its historical perspective, describes current trends in the market, and analyzes potential future developments.

Scope

Includes a comprehensive overview of the Australian residential mortgage market.

Draws upon a large Datamonitor's consumer survey to gain insights into the current mindset of the Australian mortgagor.

Includes market overview, analysis of customers, product attributes, competitor breakdown and future developments.

Provides three scenario forecasts for lending commitments in Australia until 2012.

Report Highlights

The turbulence in international credit markets has led to increased funding costs for Australian lenders. This has caused several of the Australian banks to revise their estimates of profitability for the next year downwards, and to raise their rates.

A higher degree of leverage for mortgagors may be a cause for concern in the event of a market downturn. Rising interest rates combined with falling property prices would leave some mortgagors overcommitted, especially if the mortgage was taken out with the expectation of refinancing.

The internet has already altered the way that mortgages are researched, as it has become very common for prospective mortgagors to compare prices and features from different lenders online. Actually applying for a mortgage over the internet is as yet quite uncommon, as consumers often desire face-to-face contact for such important decisions.

Reasons to Purchase

Plan your future strategy with confidence using Datamonitor's scenario-based forecasts of Australian lending commitments until 2012.

Understand the challenges the mortgage industry is facing, as well as the opportunities.

In-depth analysis of how Australian providers approach different issues, allowing you to reassess your strategy.


Additional Information

Reports provide a unique mix of market intelligence, insightful analysis and forecasting based on primary quantitative and qualitative research. A single report will give you the key data and detailed analysis of a market, issue or trend.

目录及图表

Overview

Catalyst

Summary

Executive Summary

Market Context

Illiquid global credit markets and record low Australian housing affordability threaten the market

Customer Focus

Product Focus

Competitive Dynamics

CBA is the largest lender with outstanding loans of A$172 billion

ANZ currently is the major bank with the highest proportion of satisfied mortgagors

Future Focus

Lending commitments will reach an estimated A$349 billion by 2012

Table of Contents

Table of figures

Table of tables

Market Context

The Australian mortgage market has grown strongly over the last two decades

Housing credit aggregates reached A$909 billion in 2007

Housing credit per adult Australian exceeded A$54,000 in 2007

Australian mortgagors have become more leveraged

Property investing has helped fuel the growth of housing credit aggregates

Lending commitments amounted to A$263 billion in 2007

The proportion of lending commitments attributable to investors has risen since 1993

Refinancing has become more common in the Australian mortgage market

First time buyers are continuing their tentative return to the market

Lending commitments for new construction have not kept up with lending for existing properties

The Australian mortgage market faces internal and external challenges

Property prices have grown strongly, especially in major cities

House price growth has been especially strong in Perth

Rising property prices have priced many Australians out of the market

Rising interest rates have exacerbated the already difficult housing situation

The cash rate target has risen 12 consecutive times since 2001

Industry observers widely believe the cash rate target will increase further in 2008

The threat of rising interest rates has revived interest in fixed rate loans

Adverse global credit conditions have recently impacted on the Australian mortgage market

The global credit crunch has affected banks and non-bank lenders alike

Increasing lender funding costs will lead to rising mortgage rates

Customer Focus

Record low affordability threatens Australian mortgagors

Many Australian mortgagors are under financial stress

Getting on the property ladder is considered an impossibility by an increasing number of people

Australian mortgagors often refinance to achieve the best rate

The average mortgage is now only held for four to seven years

Refinancing strategies can be risky in the face of adverse market conditions

Attitudes towards home ownership are changing

Traditionally home ownership has been an integral part of the Australian Dream

The younger generation's attitudes differ from their elders'

Product Focus

Mortgage products have evolved and become more diversified

Mortgages now offer more features and options

Low deposit products have become very common

Low documentation products cater to those who can not provide proof of income

Longer loan terms have been introduced but are not yet popular

New mortgage products have entered the market

Mortgage packages have entered the mainstream and are openly advertised

Private market shared equity mortgages were recently introduced

Reverse mortgages have become more common but are still a small niche product

Competitive Dynamics

Pricing has been subjected to considerable competitive pressure in Australia

Non-bank lenders challenged the banks in the 1990s

Foreign lenders have recently had success in the Australian market

Average loan margins have steadily shrunk as a result of competition

Banks have recently won back market share from non-bank lenders

Unfavorable global credit markets have disproportionately affected non-bank lenders

Borrowers have responded to uncertain market conditions by returning to brands perceived as safe

Channels to market are the focus of strategic shifts

The branch channel competes with the mortgage broker channel

The mortgage broker channel faces its own unique challenges

National legislation is expected to be introduced in 2008

Many brokers are looking to diversify their product range

CBA is still the largest Australian lender in a fragmented market

CBA is the largest lender with outstanding loans of A$172 billion

New entrants are threatening incumbents with rapid growth

The five largest banks hold around two thirds of outstanding mortgages

ANZ currently is the major bank with the highest proportion of satisfied mortgagors

Credit unions and building societies are squeezed by increasing competition

Specialist mortgage lenders are riding out the storm

The proportion of outstanding mortgages attributable to securitization vehicles has recently fallen

Future Focus

Mortgage products will continue to evolve

There will be demand for products offering better affordability

Product convenience will increase

In the long term the internet has the potential to revolutionize the mortgage market

Customized mortgages are a way to serve niche customers

Government initiatives may change the playing field

The new Australian government has promised to tackle housing affordability

A recent government initiative will introduce tax-exempt savings vehicles for prospective first home buyers

The First Home Saver Account scheme has attracted some criticism

Lending commitments will reach an estimated A$349 billion by 2012 under the neutral view

Datamonitor's forecasting methodology of lending commitments consider both macroeconomic and soft factors

APPENDIX

Supplementary data

Definitions

Balances outstanding

CAGR

Cash rate target

Gross advances

Lending commitments

Mortgage manager

Mortgage offset account

Non-conforming

Tranches

Methodology

Further reading

Ask the analyst

Datamonitor consulting

Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Top 15 bank lenders in Australia

Table 2: Monthly repayments are reduced with longer loan terms

Table 3: Top 15 bank lenders in Australia

Table 4: Government contributions will be higher for higher tax rates

Table 5: Credit aggregates in Australia, 1994-2007

Table 6: Debt to assets ratio, 1993-2007

Table 7: Housing credit aggregates per Australian adult, 1993-2007

Table 8: Outstanding owner-occupier loans and investor loans, 1993-2007

Table 9: Owner-occupier and investor lending commitments, 1993-2007

Table 10: Refinancing as a proportion of monthly owner-occupier lending commitments, 1993-2007

Table 11: First time buyer proportion of owner-occupier dwellings financed, 1993-2007

Table 12: Construction and existing dwellings lending commitments, 1993-2007

Table 13: Monthly building approvals for all dwellings, 1993-2007

Table 14: Average monthly sales prices of owner-occupier established dwellings, 1993-2007

Table 15: Quarterly property price index of established homes in the eight capital cities, 2003-07

Table 16: Quarterly house price index for Sydney, Melbourne and Perth, 2003-07

Table 17: Cash rate target, 1993-2008

Table 18: Fixed rate proportion of owner-occupier dwellings financed, 1993-2007

Table 19: Some groups of mortgagors are more likely to be stressed than others

Table 20: Interest payments to disposable income, 1993-2007

Table 21: How difficult do you think it would be for you to keep up repayments on a mortgage for the next five years?

Table 22: How long did you keep your mortgage with your previous mortgage provider and how long do you expect to keep your mortgage with your current mortgage provider?

Table 23: Owner-occupier proportion of private dwellings, 1996-2007

Table 24: Attitudes towards home ownership and risk differ between age groups

Table 25: How much deposit did you have when you got your main mortgage?

Table 26: What would make you bundle different financial products with a single provider?

Table 27: Bank and non-bank owner-occupier lending commitments, 1993-2007

Table 28: The value of outstanding securitized residential loans, 1993-2007

Table 29: Outstanding mortgages for a sample of foreign banks, 2002-07

Table 30: Margin of standard bank rate over cash rate target, 1993-2007

Table 31: Margins of banks' and mortgage managers' loans over the cash rate target, 2004-07

Table 32: RAMS stock price, 2007-08

Table 33: Australian consumers have come to strongly prefer major domestic brands

Table 34: Total value of outstanding mortgages for the top ten Australian bank lenders, January 2008

Table 35: Market share of outstanding mortgages for the top ten Australian mortgage lenders, January 2008

Table 36: Proportion of mortgagors that are very or quite satisfied for a sample of major lenders, 2007

Table 37: Credit unions and building societies outstanding mortgages, 2002-07

Table 38: Securitization split by banks and building societies/credit unions, 2002-07

Table 39: How did you arrange your financial product and how would you like to arrange your financial product?

Table 40: Forecasts of yearly lending commitments according to different scenarios, 2008-12

List of Figures

Figure 1: Credit aggregates in Australia have grown strongly since 1994, 1994-2008

Figure 2: Interest payments to disposable income has increased since 1993, 1993-2007

Figure 3: Some groups of mortgagors are more likely to be stressed than others

Figure 4: Attitudes towards home ownership and risk differ between age groups

Figure 5: Low deposit products have become common in the Australian mortgage market

Figure 6: ANZ has the highest proportion of satisfied mortgagors

Figure 7: Growth in lending commitments varies according to underlying assumptions, 2007-12

Figure 8: Credit aggregates in Australia have grown strongly since 1994, 1994-2008

Figure 9: Housing credit aggregates per Australian adult reached A$54,000 in 2007

Figure 10: Australian mortgagors have become much more leveraged, 1993-2007

Figure 11: The investor proportion of outstanding bank loans has increased, 1993-2007

Figure 12: In recent years the owner-occupier proportion of outstanding bank loans has increased slightly, 2002-07

Figure 13: Lending commitments have grown strongly since 1993, 1993-2007

Figure 14: Owner-occupier lending commitments have grown faster than investor lending commitments over the last five years, 2003-07

Figure 15: Investor proportion of monthly lending commitments has increased since 1993, 1993-2007

Figure 16: Refinancing as a proportion of monthly owner-occupier lending commitments has increased over the last 15 years, 1993-2007

Figure 17: First time buyers are making a comeback since the March 2004 low point, 1993-2007

Figure 18: Monthly lending commitments for construction have grown at a slower pace than lending for existing dwellings, 1993-2007

Figure 19: Lending for construction has fallen as a proportion of monthly lending commitments, 1993-2007

Figure 20: Monthly building approvals have not risen since 1993, 1993-2007

Figure 21: Average monthly sales prices of owner-occupier established dwellings have risen since 1993, 1993-2007

Figure 22: The quarterly property price index of established homes in the eight capital cities has started to accelerate since September 2005, 2003-07

Figure 23: Property prices have grown strongly in Perth, 2003-07

Figure 24: The cash rate target has been rising since 2001, 1993-2008

Figure 25: The fixed rate proportion of owner-occupier dwellings financed has increased since 2001, 1993-2007

Figure 26: Some groups of mortgagors are more likely to be stressed than others

Figure 27: Interest payments to disposable income has increased since 1993, 1993-2007

Figure 28: Non-mortgagors would find it hard to afford mortgage payments

Figure 29: Many mortgagors expect to refinance within a short time period

Figure 30: Owner-occupier proportion of private dwellings has been stable over the long term, 1966-2007

Figure 31: Attitudes towards home ownership and risk differ between age groups

Figure 32: Low deposit products have become common in the Australian mortgage market

Figure 33: Longer loan terms lead to higher total interest costs

Figure 34: Reducing fees is an important reason for bundling

Figure 35: Reverse mortgages are paid back with interest at the conclusion of the mortgage

Figure 36: Non-banks proportion of owner-occupier lending commitments has increased, 1993-2007

Figure 37: The value of outstanding securitized residential loans has skyrocketed, 1993-2007

Figure 38: Foreign banks have had success in the Australian mortgage market, 2002-07

Figure 39: Average interest margins have fallen since 1993, 1993-2007

Figure 40: Banks' discounted rates have lower margins than the standard rate, 2004-07

Figure 41: RAMS' share price has tumbled since the IPO in July 2007, 2007-08

Figure 42: Australian consumers have come to strongly prefer major domestic brands

Figure 43: CBA is the largest Australian lender with outstanding mortgages worth A$172 billion, Jan-08

Figure 44: CBA has captured the largest proportion of the growth in outstanding bank balances, 2007

Figure 45: Bank of Queensland grew its outstanding mortgage balances by 32% in 2007

Figure 46: The five largest banks account for around two thirds of outstanding mortgages, Jan-08

Figure 47: ANZ has the highest proportion of satisfied mortgagors

Figure 48: The proportion of mortgages attributable to credit unions and building societies has fallen, 2002-07

Figure 49: Securitization reached a peak in June 2007 and has fallen off since, 2002-07

Figure 50: More people would like to arrange financial products online than actually do

Figure 51: Under the Neutral scenario, yearly lending commitments are expected to reach A$349 billion by 2012, 1993-2012

Figure 52: Growth in lending commitments varies according to underlying assumptions, 2007-12